Uk politics

Martin Selmayr is no stranger to using Twitter to offer his insight and call out those he thinks have got it wrong. But this morning, on the big news in Brussels, the so-called ‘Monster’ is keeping quiet. While Selmayr has today shared messages about ‘clean vehicles’, ‘TeamJuncker’ and (of course) Brexit, he has had nothing to say on the story relating to the controversial circumstances of his appointment as secretary general of the EU Commission. This morning, the European Ombudsman closed its inquiry into Selmayr’s elevation to the top job; its findings are damning. The Ombudsman says that ‘Mr Selmayr’s appointment did not follow EU law, in letter or spirit, and did not follow the Commission's own rules.

Oh dear. Jeremy Corbyn was caught out last week after a video emerged of him claiming that the European Union was creating a ‘military Frankenstein’. It now seems as if that criticism of EU wasn’t a one off. Here is Corbyn making a speech at a rally in 2010 in which he says the EU must be ‘defeated’: https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1095002665061412865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw He told the crowd: 'They – the worlds bankers – the international Monetary Fund, the European Union, are utterly united in what they want. Utterly united in deflation, suppressing the economy and creating unemployment.

Number 10 had hoped that if it could hold off the Cooper amendment again next week, then it could eke out a concession from the EU on the backstop. But as I say in The Sun this weekend, this approach has been complicated by Jeremy Corbyn’s soft Brexit plan. This scheme, obviously, appeals to the EU: it would keep Britain in the customs union and following many of the rules of the single market. ‘The Labour party and the EU are operating in tandem to some extent, which is worrying for us’ frets one Cabinet Minister. So, May needs to persuade Brussels that such a deal couldn’t get through because her government would collapse as soon as she proposed it.

Like many people growing up in Northern Ireland, I closed my eyes to the dirty, nasty low-grade civil war that we called 'The Troubles'. But when John Major's government averred itself in the 1993 Downing Street Declaration to have “no selfish strategic or economic interest” in Northern Ireland, I pricked up my ears. Events moved quickly from this point. A few years on, in 1998, Tony Blair gave unction to the historic Good Friday Agreement (GFA). Ireland amended its constitution abandoning its claim to sovereignty over the entire island; the United Kingdom recognised the right of a majority of people in Northern Ireland to determine whether it remains part of the UK or merges with Ireland.

Could a no-deal Brexit destroy the Tory party's reputation for competence and lead to a crushing electoral defeat in the same way as Britain's withdrawal from the Exchange Rate Mechanism did in 1992? That is certainly the view of some seasoned commentators, such as Jeremy Warner in yesterday's Daily Telegraph, and the parallels to an acrimonious Brexit seem obvious. But in reality, the comparison is actually misleading, as it misrepresents the political history of the ERM exit and fails to understand how Britain has changed as a result of the Brexit referendum. First, it's worth remembering that what really hurt the Conservatives after 'Black Wednesday' was not that government policy had been defeated by economic logic.

Theresa May's attempt to alter her Brexit deal is going down badly in Brussels. The anger is partly understandable: after all, this is the agreement May's own government negotiated. Donald Tusk's barbed comment today – that there is a "special place in hell" for those who promoted Brexit without a plan – can be explained by this frustration. But the EU also needs to face up to the political reality: May's deal suffered a crushing Parliamentary defeat by 230 votes. It’s all very well having an agreement that works in Brussels theory, but it still has to get through the Commons. If Brussels really wants a deal, it too needs to move; MPs may need to climb down, but the EU can help to provide them with ladders.

Reports that Theresa May’s team are considering a June election haven’t exactly been met with universal acclaim. Tory MPs in marginal seats are horrified by the prospect, demanding assurances from the party's chairman Brandon Lewis that this isn’t the case. But it's not only Tories concerned about losing their seats who should be worried. A snap election would also be bad news for the band of Labour MPs considering breaking away to form a new party. The arguments against forming a new party due to the crushing forces of our first past the post electoral system are familiar and have acted as a brake on the formation of significant new parties since 1983.