Uk politics

If the EU is unable to make a Brexit offer that is acceptable to Parliament by the Brexit deadline on 31 October, what then? This is the big question in the Tory leadership contest and – slowly – we’re getting answers. 1. No deal back on the table, an extension not ruled out Dominic Raab this morning told Andrew Marr that if the EU does not compromise then he’d leave anyway, without a deal. In other words, the Tory 2017 manifesto position would be restored: no deal is back on the table, only this time they'd have to mean it. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid all agree. All would seek a compromise with the EU: modified version of Theresa May's deal. Nigel Farage says this is pointless because the outgoing Commission is intransigent.

The way to think about the Tory leadership contest is—I say in The Sun, this morning—that it is like a tournament with two sides of the draw, with each side sending one candidate into the final, membership round. One side of the draw is for full-on Brexiteers. Here Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom, Steve Baker and Esther McVey will duke it out. The other side of the draw features the Cabinet candidates: Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart. Whoever comes out of the full-on Brexit side of the draw will go into the final round as the strong favourite given Tory members’ views on the subject. I understand that Boris Johnson has edged ahead of Dominic Raab on this side of the draw.

After Theresa May announced that she will step down on Friday 7 June as the leader of the Conservative party, the race to find her successor is due to officially commence the following Monday. Conservative party chairman Brandon Lewis, along with the vice-chairs of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers,  have issued a joint statement laying out the process for this contest. Notably 1922 chair Graham Brady's name is missing from the statement – leading to speculation he has recused himself on the grounds that the Tory backbencher may run himself. Under the new timetable, nominations will close in the week commencing 10 June. Then there will be 'successive rounds of voting' which will keep going until a final choice of two candidates remain.

Brexit may yet kill the Conservative party but it is exacting a cruel psychological torture on liberalism. Liberals are supposed to be the measured voice of reason – earnest, insufferable but reliably level-headed. Not anymore. Liberals – or at least some of them – have gone quite mad over Brexit. There is almost no intrigue they will not seize on if it might explain away the last three years. TV historian Dan Snow tweeted a photograph of his postal ballot and the Brexit Party leaflet he claimed had been delivered inside the same envelope. When celebrity Twitter flicks on its blue-tick sirens, craven officialdom comes running but they brought bad news.

The upshot of today’s drama is that Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, will go and see Theresa May on Friday. Now this might not seem like much. But I understand that the ‘22 Executive will meet again if necessary on Friday. In other words, this meeting is Theresa May’s chance to resign rather than be pushed. Cabinet and ministerial support for May is draining away at a rapid rate. It is a sign of the end when No. 10 is having to refuse requests for meetings. If May doesn’t go, then it is almost certain that there’ll be a move against her as soon as parliament returns from recess. As one of those involved in today’s discussions tells me, this is now a question of precise timings.

Theresa May has made her latest Brexit deal pitch – and it isn't going down well with Tory MPs. The Prime Minister used a speech this afternoon to say Parliament will get a vote on whether to hold a second referendum if it backs the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill. But Simon Clarke – a Tory MP who supported the PM's deal the last time around – has changed his mind and vowed to vote the deal down. Here is what he said: And Simon Clarke wasn't the only Tory MP to vent his fury at the PM in the aftermath of her speech. Owen Paterson said the offer is a 'direct insult to 17.