Uk politics

Friday

Clarissa Tan

Boris has the greatest global clout

Ni hao. In recent days, Boris, Ken and Brian have all leapt headlong onto Weibo, China’s highly popular version of Twitter. It's an obvious effort to win the votes of Chinese-speakers living in London. Boris was the first — which, I suppose, says all you want to know about his sense of initiative, brio, élan, and whatever the Chinese word is for ‘mojo’. Ken and Brian both jumped in about two weeks later, around April 21.   Inevitably, because the vast majority of Weibo users live in China, our three London mandarins have ended up attracting followers based in the Middle Kingdom. A look at the mayoral candidates’ individual Weibo accounts gives a pretty accurate picture of the recognition and popularity they hold abroad.

Peter Hoskin

The Lib Dems start to pile on Hunt

One of the key factors in this Jeremy Hunt business was always going to be the ferocity of the political maelstrom around him. After a slow start, the Tories have sought to calm it down, offering fulsome support for the embattled Culture Secretary. For their part, Labour have been calling for his resignation from the very moment the news broke, with Ed Miliband today accusing David Cameron of ‘organising a cover-up’ to protect his colleague. So far, so party lines. But what about the Lib Dems? It's noteworthy that one of their number — Simon Hughes, natch — last night called for an independent investigation into the matter (see the video above). This, of course, is not something that Downing Street is minded to do.

James Forsyth

Fox fires a shot across the aid budget’s bows

As Pete says, Liam Fox’s piece this morning calling for more supply-side reform is broadly helpful to the Chancellor and has been written with his approval. Strikingly, the former defence secretary — who still has a constituency on the right of the party — goes out of his way to back one of the most contentious Osborne decisions, increasing the British contribution to the IMF. But there is one line in the article that carries with it not the air of helpful advice but menace: ‘It must be understood that further reductions in budgets for security, leaving overseas aid untouched, would be met with fury by most Conservatives.’ This is going to be one of the big battle lines for the next spending review, what happens to the defence budget?

Peter Hoskin

Osborne’s turning point

As Paul Goodman suggests, there is something significant about Liam Fox's article for the Daily Telegraph this morning. It's not that we haven't heard similar from the former Defence Secretary before — we have. It's more that his economic prescriptions are being made, we learn from the Sun, with the ‘explicit approval’ of his buddy George Osborne. And what are those prescriptions? Well, the main one is for further spending cuts, and Fox also waxes enthusastic about greater deregulation and about protecting the defence budget (at the expense of international aid). He also has some firm advice for the Lib Dems.

Thursday

James Forsyth

Cameron’s diary looks clean

Downing Street was seething last night about allegations that there had been meetings between David Cameron and Rupert Murdoch that it had not declared. They know that any sense that they are trying to cover up just how close Cameron was to the Murdochs and News International would be extremely damaging in the current circumstances. There is enough pain to come for Cameron from Leveson without being acccussed of a cover up too. But the revised evidence submitted by News International does support Downing Street’s version of events.

Fraser Nelson

Did Balls cause the recession?

We take a close interest in Ed Balls and his use of figures here at Coffee House, and it seems that this interest is reciprocated. The Shadow Chancellor has just been on Daily Politics where he revealed himself as a regular reader. He was confronted with some of the facts about spending and the deficit — and whether there have been ‘deep, harsh cuts,’ as he has falsely claimed. When Andrew Neil presented him with the numbers from our earlier blog, he replied that this was cash terms. He’s right, but adjust for inflation and core government spending (that is, stripping out debt and dole) is down just 0.8 per cent. Is that really what caused the crash, asked Neil. Really? Balls then changed tack.

Hamish Macdonell

A pair of tycoons has put Salmond on uncertain ground

Alex Salmond may feel he got a lot from cosying up to both Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump but, wow, is he paying the price. The front page of today’s Herald captures the First Minister’s problems perfectly. The entire first half of the front, above the fold, is covered with two pictures, one of Mr Trump and one of Mr Murdoch and the headline: ‘With Friends Like These.’ The strapline underneath states: ‘Salmond feels backlash from relationships with wealthy tycoons.’ The piece itself starts with the following: ‘One hit him with a verbal broadside, the other lavished him with praise. But, for different reasons, Alex Salmond was feeling the heat yesterday over his relationships with two powerful businessmen.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Any Questions for Boris?

The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, has kindly agreed to take some questions from CoffeeHousers tomorrow. Sebastian Payne, presenter of our new podcast The View from 22, will pick the best questions, put them to the Mayor and post the audio of his responses on the website later. So, what would you like to put to Boris?

Fraser Nelson

Balls’s argument is detached from reality

So who killed the recovery? Ed Balls points to a ‘recession made in Downing St,’ and has gone on a victory tour today. ‘I have consistently warned David Cameron and George Osborne for over a year that going too far and too fast on spending cuts would backfire,’ he says. ‘Arrogantly and complacently they ignored those warnings, and the country is paying a heavy price.’ Facts are always the remedy to an outbreak of Balls. The government releases monthly spending figures, which show an increase overall. That’s due to the rising cost of debt and dole, you might say, but strip those two out and you have what the ONS calls ‘core government spending’.

Peter Hoskin

Murdoch versus Brown

Testimony A, from Rupert Murdoch speaking to the Leveson Inquiry today: ‘Mr Brown did call me and said “Rupert, what do you know, what’s going on here?”, and I said “What do you mean?” and he said “The Sun, what it’s doing and how it came about”. I said I was not aware of the exact timing, but I’m sorry to tell you Gordon that we have come to the conclusion that we will support a change of government when there is an election. He said — and no voices were raised — “Well, your company has declared war on my government and we have no alternative but to make war on your company”. I said “I’m sorry about that Gordon. Thank you for calling.

Lloyd Evans

In PMQs, Cameron has no answers on Hunt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf2BXvI3pe8 Ed Miliband led on the economy at PMQs. But he was only warming himself up for the main event. Leveson dominated proceedings. David Cameron lamented the ‘disappointing’ news that the country has slipped back into negative growth. ‘It’s all bluster,’ crowed Miliband. ‘His plan has failed.’ This recession was made in Downing Street, he said, by an ‘arrogant Prime Minister and his Chancellor’. It was potent, punchy stuff from the Labour leader. And he was helped by Ed Balls who has clearly been ordered to clam up during PMQs. Instead of wriggling and calling out names, Balls sat there motionless and mute. His stony glare added to the pressure on the PM.

James Forsyth

Hunt still hasn’t answered the main question

In his statement to the House of Commons, I heard no answer from Jeremy Hunt to the most serious question about his handling of the whole News Corp bid: how did Frederic Michel appear to know what Hunt would say to the Commons before he said it? If he was being given a steer on what was to be said or any advance sight then it is hard to see how Hunt can remain in post. This is not a matter that can be dealt with by the resignation of a special adviser. Hunt’s defence — and the Prime Minister’s defence of him — is that the Leveson process must be allowed to play out. But if Hunt cannot answer this question when he faces the inquiry, his position will become untenable.

James Forsyth

Hunt’s special adviser resigns

There’s been a resignation this morning, but it is not Jeremy Hunt’s. Instead, it’s his special adviser Adam Smith. Smith’s departure before Hunt’s Commons statement at 12:30 is designed to put a firebreak around the Secretary of State. In his resignation statement, Smith declares that ‘the content and extent of my contact was done without authorisation from the Secretary of State’. This provides Hunt with his response to any questions about the nature of the text messages between Smith and Frederic Michel. But special adviser appointments are very personal. Secretaries of State talk constantly to their special advisers and it is remarkable that Smith and Hunt never discussed what he was telling Michel.

Jonathan Jones

Britain’s longest downturn

As of today, we now have four years’ worth of GDP figures since the UK first went into recession — and they don’t look pretty. By this point in the 1930s, we’d already fully recovered from the Great Depression.

James Forsyth

The economy adds to Cameron’s woes

This morning brought the economic news that the coalition has been dreading: the country has double dipped. Now, this is based on preliminary figures which may well be revised up. But, as Pete says, the political impact of this story will be huge. The government’s handling of the economy has now been caught up in this whole argument about competence. It provides quite a back-drop to Rupert Murdoch’s testimony today. PMQs today has now taken on a special significance. Ed Miliband has two massive targets to aim at, the Jeremy Hunt revelations from yesterday and these GDP figures. For Cameron it will be his most testing appearance at the despatch box yet. One other thing to watch is what effect these developments have on the polls in London.

Peter Hoskin

Our economy fell back into recession

Or at least technically-speaking it did. The figures released this morning suggest that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, which is the second quarter of shrinkage in a row after last winter's 0.3 per cent fall. The numbers are tiny, but the politics is huge. It's a double dip — and you can expect Ed Miliband to mention that fact again and again in PMQs later, with dread accompaniment from Ed Balls and his hand gestures. There are some caveats, of course. This is only a preliminary estimate, so the Office for National Statistics could revise it upwards at some point. It's also the slightest of slight downturns.

Tuesday

James Forsyth

The Tories start to rally around Hunt

Since I wrote my earlier blog, I have been contacted by Tories who are supportive of Jeremy Hunt. One minister argued to me with eloquence and passion that Hunt was not someone who would do anything improper and that would become clear when he faced Leveson. Another Tory told me that ‘Hunt is an absolute star,’ and that it is crucial that he survives as he is one of Cameron’s more effective ministers. Most backbench Tory MPs I have spoken to this evening are supportive of Hunt. But, intriguingly, among Liberal Democrats there is not the same sentiment.

Peter Hoskin

Hunt: I’m not quitting

Here's the full statement: ‘Now is not a time for kneejerk reactions. We’ve heard one side of the story today but some of the evidence reported meetings and conversations that simply didn’t happen. Rather than jump on political bandwagon, we need to hear what Lord Justice Leveson thinks after he’s heard all the evidence. Let me be clear my number one priority was to give the public confidence in the integrity of process. I asked for advice from independent regulators — which I didn’t have to do — and I followed that advice to the letter.

Jonathan Jones

Miliband more popular than Cameron

For the first time since August last year, Ed Miliband’s net approval rating with Ipsos MORI is higher than David Cameron’s. That marks quite a turnaround in the last few weeks: in January, Miliband’s rating was 25 points lower than the PM’s. Cameron’s ratings are now at their worst point ever.