Uk politics

Tuesday

Christopher Howarth

Why David Cameron can threaten to veto the EU budget

When in 1996 the US Congress threw out Bill Clinton’s Federal budget they precipitated a partial shutdown of the US Government. However, anyone looking at the growing prospect of a UK EU budget veto and cheerfully imagining Eurocrats being shut out of their offices on 31 December 2013 will be disappointed. Because when it comes to EU budgets, a veto is not quite a veto – the EU will continue one way or another to claim its dues. Nethertheless, a UK veto is not meaningless. Not least because, as we have set out here, the scenarios that could play out after a UK veto may not be that much worse for

Isabel Hardman

EU budget: MPs warned revolt ‘could undermine coalition’

It was inevitable that the new team of whips was going to be rather unsettled by tomorrow’s vote on the EU budget: it’s the first challenge the team has had to face. But what is surprising is quite how serious their palpitations are. I understand from a number of Conservative MPs that one of the key threats isn’t you-won’t-get-a-promotion-in-this-government, or we’ll-reveal-the-truth-about-your-mistress, but that a big rebellion tomorrow will threaten the very stability of the coalition government. When I was first told this, I found it slightly incredible: this is a non-binding vote where the popular amendment calls for the Prime Minister to go further than he has promised in negotiations,

Camilla Swift

‘Meeting? What meeting? I wasn’t there!’ Vince Cable forgets key growth committee

Business Secretary Vince Cable bewildered a select committee this morning by telling members that a new sub-committee, the Growth Implementation Committee, was yet to meet, before later backtracking and announcing that it had in fact met twice. When asked by Labour MP Anne McKechin why the much-lauded new sub-committee, which was launched in September, had not yet had a meeting, Cable replied: ‘I can’t tell you why that committee has not been convened yet’ but that he would endeavour to find out. Later in the meeting however, Cable appeared to retract his previous statement, saying that he wanted to ‘correct the record’, as he earlier ‘couldn’t recall meetings of the committee.

Sebastian Payne

The View from 22 – Battle of the Chancellors special

The Spectator hosted a packed-out debate last night on the motion — ‘George Osborne isn’t working: we need a Plan B’ — and you can now hear the outcome for yourself. As Isabel reported earlier, it was an evening of intense discussion and disagreement, so we have recorded the entire evening for you to listen at your leisure. The event lasted nearly two hours, so here are the timings for the individual speakers: 03:12 – Alistair Darling (for) 10:25 – Jesse Norman (against) 19:04 – Matthew Oakeshott (for) 27:42 – Fraser Nelson (against) 36:10 – David Blanchflower (for) 47:13 – Norman Lamont (against) 54:30 – Question and answers with Andrew Neil 1:39:08 – Final

Isabel Hardman

Tory whips in a flap over EU budget rebellion deploy Rees-Mogg

At this morning’s Cabinet meeting, ministers discussed tomorrow’s debate on the EU budget, which is shaping up to be a big row. MPs I have spoken to who have either signed or are considering putting their names to the amendment calling for a real-terms cut in the budget have found their whips to be in quite a flap about the issue. Even though it might be convenient for the Prime Minister to use a vote in parliament calling for a cut as a weapon at the budget summit itself, the party leadership is clearly sufficiently nervous to have pushed for a rival amendment from Jacob Rees-Mogg and Peter Bone. The

Nick Cohen

Battle of the Chancellors: hope v fear

At the Spectator debate on the economic consequences of Mr Osborne last night, Andrew Neil repeated JK Galbraith’s line that ‘economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good.’ The impressive Conservative MP Jesse Norman countered with ‘an economist is a man who knows 17 ways to make love to women – but no women’. Lord Oakeshott, I think, joined the mockery by pointing out that every forecast from the Office of Budget Responsibility had been wrong. Its consistent incompetence, its steady state of stupidity, its unerring unreliability, made it a surprisingly useful institution, however. Whatever it predicted you could be sure the opposite would occur. How we laughed. But political

Isabel Hardman

Battle of the Chancellors: We don’t need a Plan B

Nearly a third of the audience at last night’s Spectator Battle of the Chancellors debate arrived not knowing whether George Osborne’s plan was working or whether a plan B was in order. It was all to play for, and the six speakers attacked the task with quite some gusto. Former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling kicked off the debate by looking back to his own time in the Treasury, telling the audience that this was a crisis of the banking system by using an alarming anecdote of a conversation with a senior banker in the midst of the 2008 crisis. ‘He said, “I just want to give you some confidence, some

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Tony Blair’s ‘Grand Bargain’ for Europe: elect a President

Tony Blair gave a speech today in which he proposed a ‘Grand Bargain’ to revive the European Union. One of the proposals in this grand bargain is – and Blair is clearly speaking entirely without self-interest – that there be an elected president of the European Commission or European Council. The former Prime Minister told the Council for the Future of Europe in Berlin: ‘Let me make a few quick reflections. A Europe-wide election for the Presidency of the Commission or Council is the most direct way to involve the public. An election for a big post held by one person – this people can understand. The problem with the

James Forsyth

Why David Cameron isn’t proposing a cut in the EU budget

Cutting the EU budget is a very good idea. Much of it is spent inefficiently and its priorities are all wrong, 40 percent of it goes on agriculture. Given that a cut would also be popular with voters, why doesn’t David Cameron propose one? The reason is that there’s virtually no chance of getting agreement to it. If there’s no agreement, the EU will move to annual budgets decided by qualified majority voting—stripping Britain of its veto. But Labour’s tactical positioning in calling for an EU budget cut has been, as Isabel said earlier, extremely clever. It has left Cameron defending a complicated position which puts him on the wrong

Isabel Hardman

The test of Ed Miliband’s One Nation brand

Labour has been pushing its One Nation branding campaign with quite some gusto in the past few days. Stephen Twigg announced at the weekend that ‘One Nation Childcare’ could include co-operative nurseries, and today Ed Miliband has given a speech on what One Nation means for mental health services, with the party launching a mental health taskforce. As well as trying to drop in as many mentions of the phrase as he could into his speech to the Royal College of Psychiatrists, Miliband continued to make direct links with One Nation’s founder, Disraeli. He said: ‘But just as Disraeli was right back in the nineteenth century that we could not

Isabel Hardman

What today’s Trident announcement is really about

When Nick Harvey was sacked in September’s reshuffle, leaving the Ministry of Defence without a Liberal Democrat minister, anti-nuclear campaigners and the SNP claimed the move put the future of the review into alternatives to the current Trident nuclear deterrent in doubt. To underline the review’s security, the party announced at the start of its autumn conference two weeks later that Danny Alexander would lead it instead. But though the review may be continuing, it appears rather insecure in one crucial respect, which is whether anyone will actually pay it the blindest bit of attention. Today Philip Hammond announced a further £350 million of funding for the design of a

Alex Massie

Trident: political football, folly, or matter of principle? – Spectator Blogs

Philip Hammond is one of those ministers who seems to be held in greater esteem by those inside the Westminster hamlet than those of us who live beyond its boundaries. Westminster’s natives may, of course, be right, but it is striking how often the Secretary of State for Defence prefers to cast his arguments in terms of economics rather than, well, defence. He’s at it again today. Mr Hammond is popping in to the nuclear submarine base at Faslane where he will “announce” that the government is splashing another £350m on the next phase of the mission to replace Britain’s Trident nuclear missiles. For reasons best known to himself, the

Isabel Hardman

Cameron outfoxed from right and left on EU budget

David Cameron now appears to have been outfoxed by his own backbench and the Labour party on the European budget. A Downing Street spokeswoman confirmed this morning that while the opposition and a group of rebellious MPs will campaign for a real-terms cut in the multi-annual budget, the Prime Minister remains committed to negotiating for a real-terms freeze. The spokeswoman said: ‘His position is a real terms freeze: there has not been a real terms freeze in the multi-annual budget in recent years. That’s what we are committed to negotiating for.’ As I blogged earlier today, moves are afoot within the Conservative party to push for a real-terms cut, and

Ruth Porter

A living wage misses the point of poverty

We all want there to be some new quick fix for tackling poverty and a ‘living wage’ is the latest fad in this area of simplistic marketing slogans. The reality is far more complex. It is great that KPMG and many other companies are doing well enough that they can afford to pay their employees well. But some companies are barely surviving. In industries such as electronics manufacturing there are huge success stories, but there are also plenty of tiny family run factories that have struggled to survive offshoring –for companies like this paying their staff more simply isn’t an option. The living wage idea is a reasonable one –it’s

Isabel Hardman

EU budget: Cameron’s leadership under pressure

David Cameron is already irritating European leaders with his refusal to support any real-terms increases in the multi annual EU Budget, but this week, the Prime Minister is going to come under pressure to go even further and force a real-terms cut. This morning, he has Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander breathing down his neck, with a piece in the Times arguing that a cut is ‘difficult but achievable with the right leadership and the right approach from the UK’. In his own party, Liam Fox says it is ‘obscene’ to ‘even increase for inflation the inflated wages of the eurocrats’ and is arguing in a speech today that weaker

Alex Massie

Will David Cameron grant Northern Ireland control of corporation tax? – Spectator Blogs

Monday morning in dreich late October. What more appropriate moment to ponder the questions of corporation tax and Northern Ireland? The question of whether the Northern Ireland Assembly should control the rate of corporation tax payable in the two-thirds of Ulster for which it is responsible won’t go away, you know. Nor, despite the fact that the London press has paid little attention to it, is this some local matter of no importance to the rest of the United Kingdom either. On the contrary, David Cameron’s decision on this seemingly-arcane or merely local matter is more important than it seems and, in fact, one of the more significant questions demanding

Sunday

James Forsyth

Liam Fox: all weaker Eurozone members should leave the single currency simultaneously

Since leaving the Cabinet, Liam Fox has acted as a cross between a scout and an out-rider for various of his former Conservative Cabinet colleagues. In a speech in Oslo tomorrow, he’ll argue that the only way to deal with the Euro crisis is for all of those countries who cannot realistically cope with the demands of the single currency to leave in one go. Otherwise, he argues the markets will simply pick the weaker countries off one by one. Fox is certainly right that if Greece left, or was forced out, of the single currency, Spain and Italy would then find themselves under intense—and, probably intolerable—market pressure. But I

Andrew Green

Immigration caps don’t hamper the economic recovery. Why pretend otherwise?

The immigration lobby are getting desperately short of arguments to set against the huge costs of mass immigration. The first body blow was a House of Lords report which ‘found no evidence…… that net migration generates significant economic benefits for the existing UK population’ (see abstract here). This was followed by a report from the government’s own Migration Advisory Committee which pointed out that much of any benefit goes to the immigrants themselves. (see Paragraphs 3.6-3.13 here). Then a study by the NIESR found that the contribution of the much vaunted East European migrants to GDP per head was expected to be ‘negligible’ (see Exec Summary here), indeed negative in

Isabel Hardman

The childcare battleground

The coalition wants to remove blockages to people returning to work, and one of the most complex problems is the cost of childcare. The Observer covers a report due out this week by the Resolution Foundation, which claims that it is barely worthwhile for a second earner in a family to work full-time because of the high cost of childcare. But though ministers from both parties agree that the costs of nursery care and childminders are a problem for parents who want to start work, or increase their working hours – and have set up a commission on childcare to investigate this issue – the solution may not be one

James Forsyth

Danny Alexander: We’d do it all over again

Danny Alexander told Andrew Neil on The Sunday Politics that even if he had known the economy would only grow by 0.6% rather than the five and a half percent plus that the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted in 2010, he would still have backed the austerity programme. ‘The judgment we made was the right one’, he declared. He cited how the deficit reduction programme had reassured the markets from which Britain still has to borrow and that the OBR’s view is that fiscal tightening has not been a major reason why its forecasts were so out. Alexander refused to concede that a mansion tax was dead, despite the Chancellor