Uk politics

Monday

Jonathan Jones

What Works: The government’s NICE new idea

From our UK edition

This afternoon, Danny Alexander and Oliver Letwin launched something so sensible it's astonishing governments haven't been doing it before. They're actually going to use evidence to determine which policies work. The idea is that a number of different centres in a new 'What Works' network will examine how effective policies really are, identifying which represent value for money and which don't. That begs the question of what on earth is happening at the moment when it comes to scrutinising policy. There is plenty of high-quality evidence swirling around that rarely even gets a mention when a policy is up for debate. But when politicians do mention it, they often cherry-pick it, twist it, or, er, simply invent it to support a position.

Isabel Hardman

Tory MPs lobby David Cameron on the ‘bedroom tax’

From our UK edition

Liam Byrne launched Labour's campaign on the 'bedroom tax' today, while Helen Goodman, who was the Labour minister responsible for the party's own attempt at cutting the housing benefit bill when in government, raised the cut at Education Questions today. Tory MPs groaned a little. Michael Gove pounded the despatch box, and shouted 'this is not a tax!' and Labour MPs groaned back. But behind the scenes, I understand that far from groaning, Conservative MPs have been lobbying the Prime Minister on this particular cut, which comes into effect on 1 April.

James Forsyth

Why did no Tory attack Vince Cable for his opposition to the NHS budget ring fence?

From our UK edition

This weekend David Cameron argued that the Tories are the ‘only party simultaneously committed to proper investment in the NHS and bringing down immigration'. This makes it all the odder that the Tories didn’t seize on Vince Cable’s comments on the Sunday Politics yesterday. The Business Secretary declared: ‘I’ve always been very critical of ring fencing but the policy under this government I accepted as part of the coalition arrangements.' In other words, if Cable—the senior Liberal Democrat economic spokesman—had his way, the health budget would not be ring-fenced. But this comment seems to have gone unnoticed by the Tories; there was no press release from a Tory MP highlighting it.

Isabel Hardman

Why Ed Balls isn’t being more upfront about his borrowing plans

From our UK edition

No matter how bad the economic news, government ministers can always take heart that an attack from Labour will always be blunted by the simple line that 'Labour would borrow more'. It's why David Cameron managed to sail through Prime Minister's Questions last week relatively unscathed even though Ed Miliband chose to make his attack on the loss of the credit rating. It's a problem for the Labour leadership that Edward Carlsson Browne raises today on LabourList, but his argument is that Labour should be honest that it would borrow more as a government. He writes: We are different from the Tories. We would run the economy better. But if we want to convince people of that, they need to trust us. And if we want their trust, we need to tell them what we’d do. Yes, we’d borrow more.

Steerpike

Paperless spin

From our UK edition

With no man left behind the times, the Work and Pensions Select Committee are moving to ‘paperless working’. The pen-pushers are instructing members to get in touch with Parliament's IT department for a free iPad — on the taxpayer, naturally. In theory, money will be saved on printing costs, though conscious of those members of the committee not quite prepared for modernity ‘alternative arrangements can be made if you do not wish to move to paperless working’, an email tells Committee members. The alternative presumably being printing stuff out, as per usual, thus rendering the whole operation nothing more than a nice spin job.

Simon Hart

Are campaigners using the criminal justice system to pursue their political agendas?

From our UK edition

Late last year a Judge in Oxford Magistrates' court questioned the RSPCA for running up a legal bill of a third of a million pounds on a low-level case when the defendant’s costs were £35,000. This prompted me to ask some questions about private prosecutions and the RSPCA’s prolific use of them through the formal route of parliamentary questions and a debate in Westminster Hall. It has become worryingly clear that no-one, including the Government, has any idea what is going on. Private prosecutions might be funded privately (although even this comes with caveats), but they take place in the criminal courts so surely the Government would know how many such prosecutions take place, what the outcomes were, and what cost the taxpayer was left to meet? I was wrong.

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron’s lurch to the backbenches

From our UK edition

So the Conservative party's refusal to lurch to the right has, in the past few days, resulted in stories about the European Court of Human Rights, EU referendum legislation, limiting access to benefits for migrants, and NHS tourism. All of these issues preoccupy the right wing of the Conservative party. David Cameron yesterday said the Tories would remain in the Common ground (and Fraser wondered whether the PM had realised that he wasn't taking his own advice on this), but these briefings suggest Cameron is trying to find common ground with his own MPs as much as with the public. If these policies aren't about a lurch to the right, they are certainly about a lurch to the backbenches.

Alex Massie

What is the point of the modern Conservative party?

From our UK edition

Who are the Conservatives? No, really, who are they and what do they stand for? Once upon a time - as James Kirkup points out in a typically astute post - we had a pretty decent idea about David Cameron. He was young. Polished. Presentable.  Dutiful. Unthreatening. Fiscally-conservative-but-socially-liberal. Modern (whatever, as Prince Charles might say, that means). Above all, he was neither Michael Howard nor Gordon Brown. Ah well. That was all a long time ago. Let sunshine win the day is the soundtrack to another era. Such are the trials of government. Time - and power - tarnish everything. What does David Cameron believe in now? He remains more popular than his party but sometimes you have to think that's a pretty feeble standard for success.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

David Cameron vs the Middle Ground of politics

From our UK edition

The Prime Minister's article in today's Sunday Telegraph is, like all of his major speeches, an uplifting read. It references Sir Keith Joseph, a giant of Conservative thought. Three years ago, I had the honour of delivering the Centre for Policy Studies annual Keith Joseph lecture, as did Cameron three years before that. Here is what Cameron has to say about Sir Keith in his piece today: 'But the battle for Britain’s future will not be won in lurching to the Right, nor by some cynical attempt to calculate the middle distance between your political opponents and then planting yourself somewhere between them. That is lowest common denominator politics – and it gets you nowhere.

Sebastian Payne

The mighty Metis machine that could save Cameron’s bacon in 2015

From our UK edition

What does David Cameron need to do to win the next general election? Following on from Eastleigh, several of the suggestions in today's papers involve a significant personnel or policy shift, something Cameron is likely to ignore. Buried in the Sunday Times, an alternative is revealed (£) with the Metis project. Headed up by four of Westminster's sharpest minds, Metis is destined to become the largest and most sophisticated voter database ever built in the UK. The power of a 20 million strong list of voters has the potential to revolutionise campaigning: 'It will enable political parties to run highly targeted campaigns, focusing on individual voters whose support is vital to win key seats.

Isabel Hardman

How to be an anti-politics party in government: make the public sector accountable

From our UK edition

One of the lessons from last week's Eastleigh by-election - and indeed the Italian elections - is that voters don't like politicians at the moment. It's easy for those like Nigel Farage to mop up this anti-politics sentiment in the same way as Nick Clegg could say before the 2010 election 'the more they attack each other, the more they sound the same'. But how does the Conservative party try to appeal to those voters fed up with the Establishment of which it is so clearly a part? David Cameron can hardly start attacking himself, after all. There is one thing that the Tories could do - and which their backbenchers are pushing for - which would at least undermine a sense that the party is tied up in the cosy Establishment.

James Forsyth

Vince Cable tells Philip Hammond, cut Trident not welfare

From our UK edition

On The Sunday Politics today, Vince Cable told Andrew Neil that he disliked ring fencing particular departments. But he accepted that the NHS and DFID budgets would remain protected for the rest of this parliament Cable, who joked that he was being fingered as a shop steward of the National Union of Ministers, made clear that he opposed any further welfare cuts. When asked about Philip Hammond’s comments that welfare should be cut not defence, Cable responded by saying that the Ministry of Defence should scrap Trident. Interestingly, Cable conceded that capital spending was still too low and that he would push for further increases in it in the Budget. He indicated that George Osborne was sympathetic to this point of view.

Camilla Swift

Bookbenchers: Nick de Bois

From our UK edition

Conservative MP Nick De Bois is over on the books blog now sharing some of his favourite reads for the new year. He reveals the sinister political masterpiece he would most like to study, the surprising three books he would save from a burning British Library and the Presidential memoir he reads before bed.

Saturday

James Forsyth

Theresa May and Chris Grayling signal bold new Tory direction on the ECHR

From our UK edition

Tonight brings two major developments in terms of Tory policy on the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Courts of Human Rights. The Mail on Sunday reports that Theresa May is close to announcing that under a post 2015, majority Tory government Britain would leave the Convention. All the articles of the Convention would be incorporated into a British Bill of Rights. But no one would be able to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights. This would end stand-offs such as the one over prisoner voting where the Strasbourg Court is telling parliament it has to enfranchise convicted inmates. Under this system, the Supreme Court in this country really would be supreme.

Rupert Myers

‘We called quite a few dead people’: How the Tories’ lack of data let them down in Eastleigh

From our UK edition

At 9.15pm, with 45 minutes until polls closed in the Eastleigh by-election, the ‘get out the vote’ telephone operation at Conservative Central Headquarters stopped. As one fellow volunteer put it, it was so late in the day that we were just 'pissing people off'. Having been there all day, I’d had that feeling for several hours, as voter after voter spoke of the harassment they had received during the Eastleigh campaign from all of the major parties. By the early evening we were calling people who not only had received several calls already that day to remind them to vote, as well as one or two visits to their doorstep, but these poor voters had sent in their ballots by post, and had told everyone that.

James Forsyth

The Tory branch of the National Union of Ministers says cut welfare, not our budgets

From our UK edition

Philip Hammond is a cautious and loyal politician. He is not a boat rocker. This is what makes his interviews in the Telegraph and The Sun today so noteworthy. He would not have started conducting spending negotiations in public unless he felt he had to and that he had a chance of success. Hammond tells The Sun his case is this, ‘You take half a percent out of the welfare budget, you’ve solved the problem in defence — HALF a percent. There is a body of opinion within Cabinet that believes we have to look at the welfare budget again.’ In truth, the argument about the 2015-16 spending round is not a conventional spending row: it isn’t the Ministry of Defence versus the Treasury.

James Forsyth

Is David Cameron about to drop minimum alcohol pricing?

From our UK edition

James Chapman reports today that plans for a minimum unit price for alcohol are set to be dropped. This is welcome news. The policy always promised to simply drive up the price of drink, penalising all drinkers, while doing little about public drunkenness or binge drinking. The Mail says that the plan has fallen out of favour because of the government’s new emphasis on the cost of living. It is dawning on everyone that that hugely increasing the price of people’s pleasures at a time of falling real incomes is not a sensible political move. Although, the question remains of whether David Cameron will be prepared to fully abandon a policy that has been a personal priority of his. Tory MPs will be cheered by this move.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Eastleigh result: the Tories aren’t panicking, but that doesn’t mean they won’t

From our UK edition

Don't panic, don't panic! But are the Tories actually panicking about the Eastleigh result? Coffee House readers will have seen Stewart Jackson's call on the government to get more robust on Romanian and Bulgarian migrants, and Gavin Barwell's plea to his colleagues to stay calm. But backbenchers aren't really flapping their arms in terror today, other than taking positions we've already heard them take. Even backbenchers who really don't like David Cameron are clear that even though coming third is 'deeply disappointing', it's not a catalyst for disaster right now. But that doesn't mean Cameron's opponents don't have some sort of vision of how the next few months could pan out.

Jonathan Jones

Eastleigh by-election: Four points from Ashcroft’s exit poll

From our UK edition

The result might be in, but that doesn't mean there's nothing useful polls can tell us about the Eastleigh by-election. What swayed the voters? Why did they vote as they did? And — perhaps of most interest — how might they vote next time? Yesterday, Lord Ashcroft's polling operation phoned 760 Eastleigh residents, 654 of whom had voted in the by-election. All sorts of warning labels need slapping across the figures: they aren't weighted, so are subject to a much higher risk of selection bias than other polls, and even if the sample were representative and random, the margin of error would be 3.5 points (and higher for subsets of those 760 respondents). But here are a few interesting nuggets from the data: 1. The Lib Dems won the ground game.

Gavin Barwell

Don’t panic: the Tories can do better than Eastleigh

From our UK edition

There’s no disguising the fact that last night’s result was a very disappointing one for Conservatives. There were three small crumbs of comfort. First, the poor performance of Labour, our only realistic rivals in terms of winning the next Election. The opinion polls say Labour are doing 12 or 13 percentage points better than they did at the last Election, but on the ground in Eastleigh they increased their share of the vote by just 0.22 per cent. In the 1994 Eastleigh by-election, held before Tony Blair was elected Leader, Labour came second with 27.6% of the vote.  Yesterday, they managed fourth place with just 9.