Uk politics

Brave, the Oscars and the Scottish Cringe.

From our UK edition

Hurrah for Brave, the little movie that could! And did! All Scotland salutes her Oscar for Best Animated Feature. Another triumph for the plucky underdogs at Disney-Pixar. That, at any rate, is the Scottish government's view. This "Scottish film" (according to the SNP's official twitter feed) is another example of Caledonian excellence. Only pedants and churls - of which the country possesses no shortage - can fail to be stirred by the movie's victory in a minor Oscar category. Well, of course, there's nothing wrong with liking Brave - a perfectly decent movie - and nothing wrong with preferring it to animated movies you most probably have not seen.

How will the Rennard allegations affect the Eastleigh by-election?

From our UK edition

What effect will the Rennard allegations have on the Eastleigh by-election? Channel 4 has been working on the story for months, but it is obviously taking off at an inconvenient time for the Liberal Democrats. There is also - for both Coalition parties, although particularly for the Tories because this was a key pledge for George Osborne - the problem of the AAA credit rating loss. But don't forget that the by-election was triggered by Chris Huhne's 'guilty' plea for perverting the course of justice, and in spite of repeated references in Conservative campaign material to 'trust', Huhne appears to have had little effect on the by-election. One Conservative MP I spoke to about the Rennard scandal over the weekend suspects it may have similar limited impact on the Lib Dems.

Markets shrug off Britain’s downgrade

From our UK edition

It seems that Moody's downgrade of UK government bonds on Friday night has — so far — had more effect on the headlines than the markets. After the news on Friday night, the pound fell by about a cent against the dollar, from $1.525 to $1.515. And against the euro it fell from €1.157 to €1.147 (it's fallen a little further this morning, to €1.144). But that's no bigger than the drop on Wednesday on the news that Mervyn King and two other members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee had voted in favour of more quantitative easing. And it doesn't seem to have raised the cost of borrowing much. The yield on ten-year government bonds did rise slightly from 2.11 per cent at close on Friday to 2.

Lord Rennard: The key questions

From our UK edition

As James observed last night, Nick Clegg's statement on the Rennard allegations raised more questions than it answered. Lord Rennard continues to strenuously deny the claims of sexual harassment made on Channel 4 News last week and in other reports since. But the problem is that when allegations were being made and rumours were circulating, nothing was done, regardless of whether those claims would have been proven or not. And as Nick Clegg hasn't closed down the row, here are five questions that the party and those examining it will want to answer: 1. There are discrepancies between the different accounts of when the Lib Dem leadership received the specific allegations from Channel 4.

Danny Alexander on why he couldn’t do more about Lord Rennard allegations

From our UK edition

Danny Alexander has now issued a statement of his own on the Lord Rennard and the allegations against him. This follows Nick Clegg revealing that it was Alexander, then his chief of staff, who was responsible for dealing with general concerns about Lord Rennard in 2008. Alexander says that there was a limit to how far he could take these concerns following Rennard’s denial, a denial that Rennard stands behind, given that the ‘concerns were received indirectly and anonymously’. There is though, an issue, of how proactive Alexander was in attempting to find out what was really going on. Alexander’s statement also doesn’t address the question of the setting in which he raised these concerns with Rennard.

Lembit twists the Clegg knife

From our UK edition

The Lord Rennard scandal is spreading, not least because of Nick Clegg's willingness to bring in other characters. He even directly named Danny Alexander as central to the disastrous investigation five years ago. Clegg's statement says they didn't know the specifics involved or the names of the women. A line that does not hold much weight when one of the victims was his own Special Advisor. As many Liberal Democrats lie low, it would not be a 'show trial' without everyone's favourite yellow clown. Enter stage left Lembit Opik who popped on Sky News. The last person that the party leadership would want to see, and he did not upset the punters: 'I don't want to hear all the emotion from Clegg, I don't want to hear how angry he is.

Nick Clegg’s statement on Lord Rennard raises as many questions as it answers

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg’s statement this evening concedes that he was aware of general concerns about Lord Rennard’s alleged behaviour. He says that he asked his then chief of staff Danny Alexander to confront Rennard about these concerns in 2008. Rennard told Alexander, Clegg says, that there was no truth to the allegations. Again, it is worth stressing that Rennard denies all the complaints made against him. Clegg, though, angrily refutes suggestions that he was aware of any specific allegations. He complains about a ‘show trial of innuendo, half-truths and slurs’ against the Liberal Democrats. Following Clegg’s statement, most attention now will focus on the Alexander Rennard meeting in 2008. Was it formal or informal? Were other party officials present?

Nick Clegg statement on Lord Rennard

From our UK edition

Statement from Nick Clegg: The allegations made on Channel 4 concerning Lord Rennard last Thursday were extremely serious and distressing to the women involved. It is critical they are investigated thoroughly and dealt with properly and they will be. But I would like to make one thing crystal clear. I did not know about these allegations until Channel 4 informed the party of them shortly before they were broadcast. I have today spoken to one of the women in the broadcast who I respect and admire and who confirmed that she had never raised the issue with me. I am angry and outraged at the suggestion that I would not have acted if these allegations had been put to me.

What Lord Ashcroft’s breakup with the Tories means for David Cameron

From our UK edition

Now Lord Ashcroft has withdrawn his funding (£) from the Tory party, what implications does the move have for David Cameron? Much like losing Britain's AAA rating this week, it's less about the actual impact for his government but the message it sends out about where they are going. As the Sunday Times reports today, the Tory peer has lost all faith in Conservatives' ability to win the next election: ‘It comes amid mounting pessimism among Tory supporters about the prospects of victory. Although Ashcroft has not publicly expressed doubts over the party’s ability to win, privately he is said to fear Labour is likely to secure more seats. A source close to Ashcroft said: “He feels he has done his bit.

Nick Clegg needs a QC to address the Rennard crisis

From our UK edition

‘What did he know and when did he know it’ is one of the staples of modern journalism and it is the question Nick Clegg is struggling to answer over the Lord Rennard allegations. Before continuing, it should be stressed that Rennard denies the allegations made against him. But the situation is fast turning into a political crisis for the Liberal Democrats, it is splashed across a whole host of newspaper front pages this morning. (Michael Fabricant, who is coordinating the parliamentary part of the Tory by-election effort, has already tweeted a picture of Tory activists brandishing these front pages in Eastleigh.) At the moment, the Liberal Democrats are relying on two internal inquiries to deal with the matter. I suspect this will not be enough.

Welcome to India, Mr Camerooon: how the PM fared with the local media

From our UK edition

How did David Cameron fare with the local media on this week's trip to India? The third day of his trip attracted the most headlines, when he visited Amritsar. If Mr Cameron, described as 'Mr Camerooon' by one enthusiastic TV journalist, and reportedly introduced as James Cameron by another, didn’t have a high profile amongst Indians at the start of his trip, this one act ensured otherwise. After he’d talked trade with business leaders, met a Bollywood star and performed the obligatory cricket photo opp,  he headed to Amritsar, to Jallianwala Bagh, the scene of a massacre which is etched in India’s history. It was here, in 1919, that hundreds of Indians were shot dead by British troops, under orders from General Dyer.

UKIP surge in Eastleigh

From our UK edition

By-elections are notoriously hard to call. But everyone who comes back from Eastleigh says the same thing, UKIP are the party with forward momentum. This morning’s Populus poll bears that out. They are in third place with 21 per cent, with the Tories second on 28 and the Lib Dems ahead with 33. But, as the indispensable UK Polling Report points out, if you don’t reallocate some of the undecides to the party they voted for last time, UKIP are doing even better. The numbers then are UKIP 25%, Tories 26% and Lib Dems 31%. As I said in the magazine this week, UKIP are picking up support from all three parties. Things could get very interesting there if more Labour voters shift to UKIP as the best anti-coalition vote.

AAA loss is politically difficult for Osborne

From our UK edition

The United Kingdom’s triple A rating is now lost with one credit rating agency, Moody’s. This is a politically difficult moment for George Osborne. Back in February 2010, he set keeping the triple A rating as one of the key tests of a Conservative government’s economic policy. His opponents will delight in pointing out that he has failed the test he has set himself, while nervousness on the Tory benches about the coalition’s economic strategy will be heightened by this news. Economically, though, I doubt that this will have much impact. In recent weeks, Britain’s debt has been trading more like that of France, which has lost its triple A rating, than Germany, which still has it.

Five key points from the Pollard Review evidence on Newsnight and Jimmy Savile

From our UK edition

There are over 3,000 pages of evidence in the cache of transcripts, emails, statements and texts for the Pollard Review released by the BBC today. Some of the interviews covered familiar old ground, such as Jeremy Paxman telling the inquiry that it was 'common gossip that Jimmy Savile liked, you know, young - it was always assumed to be girls'. But there are other points which are worth noting from today's release. There may well be others: some of the evidence, as the pictures below show, was heavily redacted. 1. Newsnight was poorly resourced This was a problem referred to by many of those who gave evidence to the inquiry.

Vicky Pryce and the Usefulness of the Not Proven Verdict

From our UK edition

Like John Rentoul, I think much of the scoffing and chortling at the expense of the poor jury asked to consider Vicky Pryce's guilt (or innocence!) is misplaced. This was an unusual case. The questions* they asked - which have been much mocked - seem entirely reasonable to me. More than that, they're quite intelligent. "Reasonable doubt" for instance is not necessarily an obvious thing to measure or define. As for their conduct demonstrating that the Great British public is incapable of jury service, well, phooey to that. In any case, in both the legal systems that apply on these islands, the vast majority of trials do not involve juries at all. We do not actually believe juries are necessarily necessary for criminal proceedings.

Eric Pickles in Eastleigh: Lib Dems are holding Tories back

From our UK edition

All the evidence is pointing to a Lib Dem win in Eastleigh, but those Tories visiting are continuing to fight to the bitter end. Eric Pickles was down there today, and wasted no time at all in sinking his teeth into his Coalition partners. The Communities Secretary said: 'The Lib Dems are taking the people of Eastleigh for a ride. Their homes tax would hit hardworking families hardest – with ordinary people running the risk of seeing a £320 hike in their council tax. The Lib Dem candidate doesn’t understand that his new tax could not be introduced without a costly general revaluation of council tax bands. When Labour did this in Wales, four times as many homes moved up one or more council tax bands as moved down.

What the government must do to prepare for Romanian and Bulgarian migrants

From our UK edition

Ministers and MPs are nervous about a mass influx of Romanian and Bulgarian migrants putting the benefit system under strain next year. But ministers should beware, and learn from the political mistakes of the past. The failure to predict the scale of post-2004 migration to the UK from the EU caused major political problems for the Labour government. The public were left with the impression that the government was not in control of immigration and that Labour were contemptuous of public views and that they were even deliberately misleading them. The Conservatives have less to worry about on the second point – polling suggests the public broadly support them on immigration - but they have plenty to worry about on the first.

Tinkering with tax isn’t enough

From our UK edition

Should the 10p tax rate be brought back? Should the top rate be higher, or lower? Can the personal allowance be raised further? Is a mansion tax a good idea? Should the fuel duty rise be scrapped? These are the questions that are rearing their heads again — as they do every six months or so, in the run up to a budget or autumn statement. The problem is that they are all considered — in so far as they're considered at all — in isolation. We focus on one aspect of the tax system, fiddle with it a little, then move on to another.