Uk politics

Friday

Sebastian Payne

Eastleigh by-election: a bad day for Labour too

From our UK edition

While the Tories are taking a public beating for their performance in Eastleigh, Labour also have little to be proud of. Despite the party currently floating around 11 points ahead of the Tories in the national polls, they only managed to add 0.2 points to their 2010 general election result and came in fourth place. Their candidate John O'Farrell blames voters being anti-politics, not anti-Labour. Either way, the result is disappointing for Ed Miliband. Although it was unlikely Labour would ever take the seat, the party still threw its weight behind a full campaign. Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling suggests Labour were putting in similar effort to the main contenders.

Charlotte Leslie

Why David Nicholson must go

From our UK edition

As the Mid-Staffs tragedy unfurls, it becomes more and more apparent that contrary to the insistence of former Labour Ministers and Prime Ministers, this was not an isolated case, but an appalling example of problems evident throughout the NHS. Indeed, back in 2008, the then Labour Government received reports from respected international health consultants warning of a culture of fear and compliance within the NHS; a place where the emphasis was on 'hitting the targets, but missing the point' and patient safety came second to presenting a set of statistics suitable for dispatch-box delivery.

Alex Massie

If David Cameron is serious about losing the next election he’ll cuddle-up to UKIP

From our UK edition

OK. Remember this: by-elections are always liable to be interpreted too keenly. Elections often fought on local issues then have their results scrutinised as though the election was a miniature general election. It isn't. People who should know better this morning are forgetting that. You know what else matters? The candidate. They matter much more at a by-election than they do in a general election. The Tory candidate Maria Hutchings might have won Eastleigh in a general election. But a by-election brings greater scrutiny. A good number of voters are minded to pick the best candidate. I suspect few of those voters endorsed Ms Hutchings.

Jonathan Jones

Fag break Britain: four answers to Britain’s productivity puzzle

From our UK edition

Jobs are being created in Britain, but the economy isn't growing. In the last year, the number of people in work rose by 2 per cent, but economic output rose by just 0.3 per cent. As the below graph shows, employment is now 0.7 per cent above its pre-recession peak, whereas GDP is still 3 per cent below it. This adds up to a big drop in productivity. Output per worker is now 3.8 per cent below its 2008 Q1 level, and 13.3 per cent lower than it would be if the pre-recession trend had continued. In a piece for this week's issue, The Spectator's business editor Martin Vander Weyer points out that this slump is 'the equivalent of an extra five-minute fag break outside the fire exit for every employee, every hour'. (On the latest figures, it's more like an eight-minute break.

Stewart Jackson

Eastleigh by-election: The Tories are suffering for gay marriage, and need to focus on migrants and a cost of living budget

From our UK edition

It would be churlish to suggest that the Eastleigh by-election is 'disastrous', but coming third in a seat we polled almost 40 per cent in the general election is not good by anyone's measure. This is the price that has to be paid for gay marriage because of the drastic unpopularity of it with activists and supporters, who have been less inclined to get out and campaign on the streets because of it. The issue has been a direct recruiting seargeant for UKIP, and there's anecdotal evidence across the country for UKIP. There are two main lessons for me from this result. The first is that the government has to deal with the specific issue of Romanian and Bulgarian immigration as this was a key part of UKIP's campaign.

Isabel Hardman

Move to the right? The Tories need to worry about anti-politics voters too

From our UK edition

So in the end Eastleigh went for the 'crisis for Cameron' option by putting the Tories in third behind UKIP. For those opponents of the Prime Minister, last night's result represents a line through another one of their 'five key tests' for his leadership. I understand that those close to Adam Afriyie already expect the backbencher to make a number of interventions over the next few months which they hope will cement him as a serious voice speaking out against the Tory leadership, and even those who aren't are mulling over how the party should change its strategy. The inevitable reaction, and one every commentator and opposition MP is just waiting to happen, is that a rump of backbenchers press the Prime Minister to move the party further to the Right.

James Forsyth

Lib Dems hold Eastleigh as UKIP force Tories into third

From our UK edition

It was a successful night for the Liberal Democrats in Eastleigh and a disastrous one for the Tories. The Liberal Democrats held on with a majority a touch over 1,700. While the Tories came third, polling more than a thousand votes behind UKIP who surged in to second place. Labour had nothing to cheer either, coming a poor fourth—a result that makes it hard for Ed Miliband to claim they are a ‘one nation’ party. There’ll be three immediate political consequences of this result. First, Nick Clegg’s position is strengthened. Holding the seat with a majority of more than a thousand, demonstrates that the Liberal Democrats are not in the dire position that the national polls suggest.

James Forsyth

Eastleigh by-election live blog

From our UK edition

12am: The word from the count is the Liberal Democrats have held Eastleigh. Intriguingly, the Liberal Democrats think UKIP have taken second. Labour appear set for a poor fourth. If the Tories have come third with the Lib Dems holding the seat, David Cameron's Tory critics will have a field-day tomorrow. 12.20am A source at the count tells Coffee House that UKIP appear to have won more votes today than any other party. But the Liberal Democrats will win thanks to their huge lead on postal votes 12.50am Tim Farron is trying to play down expectations. But revealingly he says that a Lib Dem win would be a game changer and boost their Budget bargaining power. 1am Sense from Eastleigh is that the Lib Dem majority tonight will be in the thousands not hundreds 1.

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Eastleigh: the different results and what they’d mean

From our UK edition

So now that the polls have closed in Eastleigh, here are the likely scenarios for tonight's Eastleigh by-election result, and what each combination will mean: A) 1. Tories 2. Liberal Democrats 3. UKIP It's stating the obvious that this is the best outcome for David Cameron, showing that the Tories can win in those target Lib Dem seats, and that they can beat a confident UKIP, no matter what grumpy backbenchers say. But it's a disaster for Nick Clegg: in fact, any scenario other than victory is a disaster for Nick Clegg. For Nigel Farage, coming third when his party has been so confident, particularly in the last 24 hours, about a surge in support, will be a dampener, but it will also confirm that he was right to not have stood himself and face a second defeat in the same constituency.

Andrew Green

Falling net migration: a clear policy success?

From our UK edition

The fall of one third in the net immigration statistics announced today is the most significant development since that number rose by 50 per cent in 2004 (unremarked, incidentally, by the BBC at the time). On this occasion the IPPR (and the Migration Observatory) seemed determined to play down the government’s achievement. Certainly there is still a distance to go from today’s 160,000 to the target of tens of thousands but there are another two years in which to reach it. Sarah Mulley argues that the government are laying a trap for themselves because a reduction in student arrivals will lead to a reduction in departures in a few years time.   That would only be true if the fall was in genuine students.

James Forsyth

The Lib Dems are paying the price for their time in opposition

From our UK edition

The Liberal Democrats have been beset by scandal in government. First there was the resignation of David Laws. Then there was the whole Chris Huhne business. And now there’s Lord Rennard and his alleged activities and the question of what the party hierarchy knew about them. But one thing unites all these stories: they all happened when the Liberal Democrats were in opposition. Indeed, no Liberal Democrat has yet had to resign for anything they’ve done in government. Their problem, as I say in the magazine this week, is that they are now paying the price for all the things they did when there was very little scrutiny on them. I doubt that either Labour or the Tories would have got away with an election pledge which was so clearly unafforadable as the tuition fees one.

The Spectator

Dealing with ‘inappropriate behaviour’

From our UK edition

How should you deal with lechery? In this week's Spectator, Rod Liddle and Hugo Rifkind detail two instances of 'inappropriate behaviour' they either watched or, in Hugo's case, personally encountered. Rod describes the vocal response of one BBC production assistant to the appearance of a 'well-lubricated' reporter's hand on her inner thigh.

Isabel Hardman

Lib Dems prepare for conference showdown on secret courts

From our UK edition

Ken Clarke tabled a series of amendments to the Justice and Security Bill last night, aimed at getting the legislation through the Commons when it reaches Report Stage next week. This is the 'secret courts' bill, the one that has upset a group of Tory MPs, the Lib Dem grassroots (and, to a lesser extent, their parliamentarians), the Joint Committee on Human Rights and the Daily Mail. The changes are quite technical, but government sources insist that they should be sufficient to satisfy the critics. They are as follows: Claimants can apply for a secret hearing for material they don't hold themselves. The judge in the case must be satisfied that the government has considered whether to make a claim for public interest immunity before applying for a secret hearing.

Sarah Mulley

Falling net migration: A trap for future governments?

From our UK edition

Today’s migration statistics show a marked decline in net migration to the UK (down 34 per cent to 163,000 in the year to June 2012). Although this still leaves the Government some way off their target of reducing net migration to less than 100,000 by 2015, ministers will be pleased to be able to say that things are, in their terms, moving in the right direction. But there is a catch, and the simple maths of net migration mean that the current Government may be, wittingly or unwittingly, laying a trap for themselves, or for a future one. Net migration is the difference between immigration and emigration.  So net migration rises if immigration goes up, or if emigration goes down; and falls if immigration goes down, or if emigration goes up.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

George Osborne to Tory MPs: I hear you on fuel duty

From our UK edition

George Osborne spent an hour in front of the 1922 this evening. 40 Tory MPs took the opportunity to promote their own Budget ideas to him. From what I understand, the tone of the meeting was cordial with Osborne in relaxed form. A big theme was the cost of living with three MPs including Rob Halfon pushing the Chancellor on fuel duty. Osborne’s responses were non-committal but significantly he didn’t say that binning the fuel duty rise scheduled for September was unaffordable. Instead, a distinct vibe was given off that these MPs concerns would be accommodated. Two other MPs-- Steve Brine and Henry Smith—made the case for a cut in air passenger duty, something that the influential chairman of the ’22 Graham Brady has been a public advocate of.

Lloyd Evans

PMQs sketch: Miliband has ‘one of those days’

From our UK edition

What a strange PMQs. The house seemed half empty. The tug of elsewhere dominated proceedings. Richard Drax asked the prime minister if ‘prospective members of parliament’ should ever speak in support of terrorism.  David Cameron took this cue to rebuke John O’Farrell. Labour’s candidate at Eastleigh has admitted to feeling ‘a surge of excitement’ when he learned that the IRA had nearly assassinated Mrs Thatcher in the Brighton bomb. Cameron asked Ed Miliband to condemn his candidate. Miliband refused. ‘If he wants me to answer questions I’ll swap places any time.’ Miliband’s aim today was to turn the triple-A downgrade into a government-breaking issue. It didn’t work.

Ewen Stewart

The Bank of England panics and misses the point

From our UK edition

Wonders never cease. I awoke this morning to hear that the Deputy Governor, Paul Tucker, had announced that consideration should be given to the Bank of England setting negative interest rates. Whatever next? Anyone who had seen our current fiscal and monetary predicament, outlined in detail in my Centre for Policy Studies report today, is certainly likely to feel bemused. By international standards British monetary and fiscal policy has been extreme. Interest rates, at 0.5 per cent, are already at their lowest rate in the 300 plus year history of the Bank. The fiscal deficit, at over 8 per cent of GDP, is far worse than during the 1970s crisis and much greater than the Euro problem children of Spain, France and Italy.

The Spectator

Exclusive: Clegg ignored a sexual harassment complaint about a SECOND Lib Dem

From our UK edition

In this week's Spectator, Julie Bindel explores the culture of 'inappropriate behaviour' in Parliament. Her piece, "Carry on Westminster", makes a number of revelations about the way parliamentarians behave towards women in the Westminster village, including the following: Nick Clegg was given a written complaint in March 2011 about Mike Hancock, Lib Dem MP for Portsmouth South. A constituent who told him that he 'cannot be trusted and is a liability to women, public, and your party'. Not only was there no investigation, but there was not even a reply. When the constituent took her complaint to the party, 'the Lib Dems did not want to know. If the police and Commons authorities had not acted, they told 'Annie' [not her real name], neither would they'.

James Forsyth

David Cameron sails through what should have been a difficult PMQs

From our UK edition

Today’s PMQs should have been a tricky one for David Cameron. Ed Miliband had the ratings downgrade with which to attack the Prime Minister. But Cameron sailed through the questions about the loss of the triple A rating. Following George Osborne’s lead from Monday, he mocked Labour for its ‘policy to address excessive borrowing by borrowing more.’ This failure to capitalise on the undoubted embarrassment for the government of the credit downgrade should worry Labour. listen to ‘Cameron vs.

Isabel Hardman

The ‘bedroom tax’ shows Downing Street does need a Damian McBride character

From our UK edition

MPs are debating that Cut With the Awkward Name, the Under-occupation of Social Housing: Housing Benefit Entitlement, also known by its opponents as the 'bedroom tax', this afternoon. I've already posted about some of the problems that this policy might throw up, however well-intentioned, but there's also an important political point here. When I talk to Tory MPs about this cut, some of them accept that there are problems with specific cases, and with the number of smaller homes that are actually available for people to move into (interestingly, one housing association has reclassified its properties so tenants can avoid being eligible for the cut), but what exercises them more is that the Coalition's spinning machine hasn't really moved at all on this cut.