Uk politics

Donald Trump is on his way back to the US, and—as Katy says —they’ll be breathing a large sigh of relief in CCHQ. The great disruptor has not been that disruptive on this visit. He has, largely, kept out of the election. He hasn’t said anything to add fuel to the fire that Labour is desperately trying to get going on the NHS and a US trade deal. He hasn’t picked a fight with Jeremy Corbyn despite the provocations of the Labour leader; Labour would have loved to have turned this election into a question of whose side are you on, Corbyn or Trump’s as that is that rare thing a popularity contest that Corbyn could win.

With ten days to go until polling day, the election campaign has turned to national security. Following the London Bridge knife attack on Friday by a convicted terrorist which left two members of the public dead, the Conservatives have made a concerted effort to get on the front foot on the issue. Over the weekend, Boris Johnson announced plans for tougher sentencing for terrorists – including a minimum sentence of 14 years. There's more to come – with Johnson to announce a five-point plan to prevent serious criminals and terrorists from entering the country after Brexit. Given that this is the week the NATO summit comes to town, the Tories were always planning a security focus. However, the events of Friday mean that this has been amplified.

Tonight's ITV election debate had a slightly different cast to the seven-way BBC programme on Friday night, but its spokespeople offered pretty much the same soundbites throughout the show. It started with the parties arguing about the lessons from the London Bridge attack, with Conservative Rishi Sunak and Labour's Richard Burgon repeating the lines their leaders have used over the weekend: Sunak had a slightly softer way of putting the Prime Minister's argument that only a Conservative government can provide the necessary security for voters. But he did say it was important that the leader of a country responded to attacks like this, and emphasised what he claimed was Boris Johnson's longstanding support for tougher sentencing.

For a seven-way debate which didn't even feature the two main party leaders, tonight's BBC election programme was remarkably good. It felt as though it started with a jolt, with all the senior politicians present looking dazed as they struggled to find the words to respond to this afternoon's terror attack at London Bridge. It is too early to debate the consequences, the policies which may change, the mistakes made and so on, and the awkwardness was palpable. There was visible relief when they were able to move on to the second question, and a different topic. Because Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn had both sent along substitutes, the debate felt rather more balanced, rather than the leaders of the smaller parties trying to gang up on the big two.

So, will Boris Johnson sit down for an interview with Andrew Neil? Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon have done theirs while Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage are scheduled for next week. The Prime Minister hasn’t yet agreed a time for his. Given how tough an Andrew Neil interview is, just ask Jeremy Corbyn if you doubt that, it is hard not to be cynical about the Tories’ scheduling issues. Boris Johnson is, though, offering to appear on the Andrew Marr show this Sunday. This offers an easy solution to the problem. The Tory leader, who is clearly free on Sunday morning, could simply record his interview with Andrew Neil then and it could be shown that evening. I understand that the BBC have proposed a solution along these lines.

Jeremy Corbyn is desperate to move on from talk of his mauling at the hands of Andrew Neil last night but some journalists still won't play by the Labour script. At a Labour event this morning, two reporters asked questions about anti-Semitism. It's safe to say it didn't go down well with shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner, who accused the reporter of 'having a dig' at the leader: 'Do you have a question on the issue we are actually discussing today or was that an opportune moment to get a dig in about something else?' Oh dear...

Jeremy Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil was one of the most uncomfortable half hours of the Labour leader's tenure. In contrast to the ITV debate, where he appeared confident and quick-witted, Corbyn struggled to answer questions on a number of different issues, complaining all the while that Neil wouldn't let him finish. By the end, he might have wished that he'd had more interruptions as this was a very poor interview. His refusal to apologise for the Labour party's handling of anti-Semitism has naturally attracted the most attention.

It was one of the defining moments of the 2014 Scottish referendum campaign. In that early August TV debate, Alistair Darling said any 8 year old could tell you what a country’s flag, capital and currency were but that Alex Salmond couldn’t say what currency an independent Scotland would use. Salmond’s floundering that night badly hurt the ‘Yes’ cause. This evening, when Andrew Neil pressed Nicola Sturgeon on what currency an independent Scotland would use, she replied the pound but without a monetary union. She indicated that this would be the case even if Brexit had happened. So, Sturgeon is saying that Scotland would be applying to join the EU while using a third country’s currency without a monetary union.

Boris Johnson has unveiled the Conservative manifesto in Telford this afternoon. The 59-page document – titled 'Get Brexit Done: Unleash Britain’s Potential' – is a far cry from the 2017 Conservative manifesto. That document still haunts Tory MPs to this day and is widely blamed for the Conservatives losing their majority in 2017. Today's offering is much more risk-averse when it comes to contentious issues and policy areas. A lot of the big spending announcements were made at the beginning of Johnson's premiership.

Who won Friday night's Leaders' Question Time? On the latest Coffee House Shots podcast, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and the New Statesman's Stephen Bush tell me it's Boris Johnson who will be the happiest – despite criticism, he got his key messages across. However, the format – which saw hostile audience member questions for Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Johnson – proved testing for all sides. The news line of the night came from Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader said that in a second referendum – held by a Labour government – he would remain neutral and campaign neither for Leave nor Remain.

The Liberal Democrats may have brought confetti canons to their manifesto launch, but they have still struggled to get as much attention today as they hoped, given Boris Johnson's loose lips on the National Insurance threshold cut. They are also - by leader Jo Swinson's own admission - suffering a squeeze in the polls. The latest YouGov poll has the party on 15 per cent, trailing Labour which is on 30 per cent and the Tories on 42 per cent. Perhaps more worryingly, given the focus on Swinson herself, voters don't seem to warm to her the more they find out about her. What's going wrong? One of the main problems might be that the party has miscalculated what its strongest selling points are. The campaign is heavily focused on two things: Swinson and the stop Brexit pledge.

As the election campaign enters its third week, the Conservatives are enjoying a 17-point lead, according to a YouGov poll. However cautious Tory MPs are quick to point out nothing should be taken for granted, as this is broadly speaking where the Tory party was at this point in the 2017 campaign. But for Labour to have a chance of forming a government come 12 December, Jeremy Corbyn needs to change the political weather. He has two set piece opportunities this week to do just that: Tuesday's leader's debate and Labour's manifesto launch. ITV’s planned television debate has the potential to move the dial. The first head-to-head debate of the campaign has led to cries of foul play from smaller opposition parties who have been excluded from the meet.

It will be the biggest moment of the campaign so far. On Tuesday night, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn will go head to head in an ITV debate. I say in The Sun this morning that this debate is the biggest risk that Boris Johnson has taken in this election. There’s a reason why none of his predecessors as PM agreed to such an encounter. But Boris Johnson’s team calculated that this debate was worth it as it enables them to frame this election as a choice as to whether you want Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn as PM. He has a 22 point lead on this question and asking it brings 2017 Tories who have gone over to both the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party back into the fold. Tuesday night’s format should favour Boris Johnson.

In this election, the Tories hope to persuade voters who have never backed the Conservative party before to turn blue. Key target seats lie in parts of the Midlands and North that are historically Labour. As I say in this week's magazine, to help candidates and activists take on this new terrain, the party has sent them a handbook setting out who they need to win over. It lays out the importance of communicating 'with voters who in the past may not have considered a vote for the Conservatives, but who want to GET BREXIT DONE and would now prefer a majority Conservative government to a coalition led by Jeremy Corbyn.