Uk politics

Every election campaign has a wobble. But the Tories broke new ground in managing to wobble before they’d even launched their campaign. However, the formal start of the Tory campaign on Wednesday night does appear to have stabilised things, I say in The Sun this morning. I understand that the Tories own polling still shows them on course to win the election and return with a working majority. But, in the assessment of one of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet allies, this contest is ‘the most complicated election we have had. Two minor parties that can take from both major parties’. This dynamic means that this election will be more unpredictable than usual. There won’t be a straightforward national swing, rather a series of regional contests.

Will former Labour MPs help the Tories break the red wall? A key plank of the Tory path to a majority consists of winning seats in the Midlands and the North which have been Labour for generations. Many of these areas voted to leave in the EU referendum. The Tory hope is that a well-executed campaign in which they reinforce their Brexit message with increased public spending promises for domestic policies will lead to them winning Labour Leave voters over. However, as crucial to the strategy is how the vote splits between the various candidates standing in each constituency. Ian Austin – the independent MP for the key Tory target seat of Dudley North – has announced today that he will not seek re-election.

In the past few minutes, Tom Watson has announced that he is stepping down at this election. In a surprise letter, the Labour deputy leader says his decision is 'personal, not political' and that he is 'not leaving politics altogether'. In the meantime, he wants to spend more time campaigning on public health. https://twitter.com/tom_watson/status/1192169894479122433?s=21 There are some curious lines in this letter, and Jeremy Corbyn's response. The Labour leader picks up Watson's comment about not leaving politics, and writes: 'I am proud and glad to have worked with you over these four years and I know this is not the end of our work together.

The Liberal Democrat election campaign launch was beset by technical difficulties which meant that Jo Swinson was at times hard to make out. However, the anti-Brexit message was loud and clear. The enthusiastic Liberal Democrat leader said she was 'excited' to stand as the Liberal Democrat candidate for Prime Minister. Swinson said there was a very real chance she could be the next inhabitant of 10 Downing Street as it was not about 'the red team or the blue team anymore'. Swinson was clear that only her party could be trusted to stop Brexit. She pitched the Liberal Democrats as the party of the centre ground – stuck between two extremes in Labour and the Tories. But she had a harder time when it came to the Q and A.

The era of John Bercow as Speaker is no more. This evening MPs voted for Sir Lindsay Hoyle to succeed Bercow as Speaker of the House of Commons. Elected by secret ballot through a series of knockout rounds, Hoyle was triumphant with 325 votes, following four rounds of voting. Chris Bryant came second with 213 votes. Although it was a crowded field, going into the contest Hoyle was the frontrunner. As deputy speaker under Bercow, the Labour MP for Chorley had impressed colleagues with his no frills approach to the role. Compared with Bercow's style, Hoyle earned a reputation as a fair and neutral speaker. During the hustings, Hoyle continued to show that he was a very different candidate to Bercow – refusing to say whether he voted leave or remain in the EU referendum.

Normally wrangles about TV debates go on for weeks before one is agreed. Yet, before the election campaign has even formally started, ITV have announced a TV debate between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson on November 19th. This’ll be the first election head to heard this country has had. Agreement on this debate has been reached so fast, as I say in The Sun this morning, because  both Labour and the Tories think they benefit from this one on one format. On the Labour side, they hope that it helps them unite the anti-Tory vote behind Corbyn. While the Tories want a one on one debate because they think the question of who do you want to be Prime Minister—Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn—favours them. During the 2017 campaign, Theresa May lost her lead on this question.

There's been much speculation this week about how the Brexit party will approach the incoming general election. Varying reports suggested Nigel Farage's party could choose to target anything from 20 to 100 seats. However, speaking in Westminster this morning, Farage made clear that he had bigger ambitions. The Brexit party leader said that unless Boris Johnson changed his Brexit position, his party would stand candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland: 'We will contest every single seat in England, Scotland and Wales. Please don't doubt that we are ready. Do not underestimate our determination or organisation.

As Jeremy Corbyn launches the Labour campaign today, talk has turned to the key battlegrounds that will decide the result of the general election. However, when it comes to where the most pivotal campaigning will take place, increasingly the answer is online. Digital campaigning has risen in importance with each election. With bad weather likely to put off some of the less enthusiastic campaigners this year, the efforts online will be particularly crucial. This poses a challenge to the Tories. In 2015, the Conservatives were praised for running a carefully planned digital campaign that focused on key voter groups. But in 2017 they dropped the ball.

Nicky Morgan has announced she is standing down as a Conservative MP at the next election. She isn't the first to say she's off, but what's different about this resignation is that Morgan is a serving member of Boris Johnson's cabinet. In her resignation letter, she cites the need to send more time with her family - and the toxic political environment: 'But the clear impact on my family and the other sacrifices involved in, and the abuse for, doing the job of a modern MP can only be justified if, ultimately, Parliament does what it is supposed to do - represent those we serve in all areas of policy, respect votes cast by the electorate and make decisions in the overall national interest.

As a vote on the government's plan to hold an election beckons, the Prime Minister has made the decision to restore the Conservative whip to 10 of the 21 Brexit rebels. This group collectively lost the whip when they voted for the Benn bill which forced the government to seek an Article 50 extension rather than leave the EU with no deal. These MPs have been welcomed back following a meeting with Boris Johnson: Alastair Burt Caroline Nokes Nicholas Soames Greg Clarke Ed Vaizey Margot James Richard Benyon Stephen Hammond Steve Brine Richard Harrington Those who have returned to the fold have voted with the government on key votes: for the programme motion and against the Letwin amendment.