Uk politics

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Ukip’s anti-Labour mission

Ukip wants to use the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election as a way of spooking Labour into realising that it can steal votes from every party, not just the Tories. Labour is sufficiently worried to be trialling special anti-Ukip leaflets in the constituency, but behind-the-scenes senior figures still seem reasonably relaxed about the real threat that Nigel Farage's party poses. The picture (from Guido) above, though, shows that Ukip is trying to hit the two weak spots for Labour, the ones it is trying to neutralise rather than develop radical policy on: welfare and immigration.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Guinea-pigging, carpets and foreign language courses: the universal credit fog

You can tell how little someone respects and admires someone by the number of times they say 'with respect'. Based on the number of times Iain Duncan Smith and Robert Devereux used that phrase in today's Work and Pensions Select Committee, relations have really hit rock bottom between DWP and the MPs scrutinising the department. Just to underline his irritation at some of the questions, IDS told Glenda Jackson that he had 'no idea what you are asking' and that to understand her, he would have to take a foreign language course. Devereux snapped that she was criticising him for answering the question she'd set, and repeatedly complained that the committee was 'going round in circles'.

Isabel Hardman

Blow for Yeo as local Tory party says ‘go’

In part two of the Constituent Spring, Tim Yeo's constituency association has just voted not to re-adopt him as their Conservative candidate. The Tory MP had appealed against the decision of the South Suffolk Conservative Association's decision to deselect him, and the result of the vote on this was announced today. Yeo said: 'It has been a privilege to serve as MP for South Suffolk since 1983. I will continue to work for all my constituents until the General Election next year. I am immensely grateful to all those Conservative Party members who voted for me to continue as their MP. I now ask them all to campaign for my successor with the same loyalty and dedication they have shown to me.

Isabel Hardman

Michael Gove and the fight for the moral high ground

Michael Gove's speech today was, as James explained at the weekend, a pitch from the Tories to be the optimists of the 2015 election. He wanted to have a little boast about the success of the government's education reforms in raising the desirability of a state education. He said: 'When Channel Four make documentaries about great comprehensives - academies - in Essex and Yorkshire, when BBC3 make heroes out of tough young teachers, when even Tatler publishes a guide to the best state schools - you know tectonic plates have started to shift.' This is hardly the running down of teachers or state schools that Gove's critics like to complain about. But this speech has still attracted a fair bit of rage.

Sebastian Payne

David Higgins warns politicians of the costs of dithering on HS2

Sir David Higgins is making the most of the first few weeks in his job as chief of HS2 Ltd to fight the new line's corner. In an interview in today’s Daily Telegraph, Higgins makes a strong case (arguably better than anyone from the government) for the line, explaining why there is no alternative. He warns that the existing rail lines risk becoming similar to the ‘Piccadilly line at rush hour’: ‘There are no new train paths. We’d love to put more trains on the west coast. It performs at 85 per cent. It’s a very tired, old, smartly refurbished railway line that is right at capacity. It’s the busiest mixed use railway line in Europe and it’s showing. We can’t get more trains on it.

Isabel Hardman

Tory modernisers make hard-headed pitch for greenery

The 2020 group of modernising, mostly 2010-intake, Conservatives is trying to muscle in on their party's manifesto-writing process by producing an impressive number of reports that they hope the Tory brains trust writing the 2015 offer will hoover up. The latest, 'Sweating our assets': productivity and efficiency across the UK economy was led by Laura Sandys, with David Ruffley, Baroness Wheatcroft, Nicola Blackwood and Steven Barclay all contributing. It has some eye-catching proposals, such as a ban on certain products such as mobile phones going to landfill. But what is more interesting about this report is the way it is trying to frame a favourite argument of the modernisers.

Martin Vander Weyer

Why Ed Balls doesn’t care about criticisms of his tax plan

There were a million people who voted Labour in the 2005 general election but not in 2010, when the party fell from a 66 majority to 48 seats behind the Tories. Thanks to the Lib Dems’ spiteful rejection of boundary changes that would have helped their coalition partners, the 2015 poll is already rigged in Labour’s favour by about 30 seats, so the number of floaters who have to be won over to give Miliband and Balls a working majority is likely to be well down in six digits rather than seven. No doubt Labour’s pollsters know how many to the nearest thousand, and have them segmented and profiled to the last housing estate. Not many are likely to be business leaders, wealth creators, tax economists,Today listeners or Spectator readers.

Isabel Hardman

Gove row paints dispiriting picture of a post-2015 Lib-Con coalition

The row between the Lib Dems and Conservatives over Ofsted has taken a curious turn this morning, with Lib Dem MP David Ward, not particularly well-liked by the leadership, appearing as a party spokesman on the Today programme. Given this is about someone's fixed-term contract not being renewed (any voters who are bothering to pay attention to this row will wish a similar fuss was made when the same thing happened to them), it is, as Fraser said on Saturday, an entirely manufactured row designed to appeal to that very specific group of voters Nick Clegg is trying to court. But this row does raise an interesting question about the Coalition. James wrote in his politics column this week that the two parties are merely cohabiting now. This means they can go the distance to 2015.

Alex Massie

Imagine the uproar if a Tory minister proposed a “do-it-yourself” NHS?

Consider these two stories. In the first the government approves new proposals to overhaul hospital outpatient care. For once there isn't even much of a pretence that this will improve healthcare. It's simply a question of saving money. Assuming the new proposals are implemented, many outpatients who had hitherto enjoyed (or endured) hospital appointments will be told to stay at home. Indeed they will be advised to "treat themselves". What contact they have with a consultant will be of the "virtual" kind. Perhaps a quick telephone call if they are lucky. More likely, they will be told to download an app to their phone which will tell them how to manage their condition or affliction. In other words, a DIY NHS. Or, if you prefer, some real privatisation.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Sally Morgan is wrong: quangos are not stuffed with Tories

Sally Morgan’s claim this morning that No10 is trying to purge non-Tories from quangos doesn’t ring true to me. Last time I checked, Team Cameron was still putting Labour types into quangos, oblivious to the game that Labour has been playing so long for so well. Exhibit A is the egregious Chris Smith, a former Labour Culture Secretary who has somehow ended up chairing the Environment Agency (whose incompetence can now be seen covering 23,000 acres of the in Somerset Levels). In the Labour years, the Labour Party was very good at deploying its own people to charities and quangos – making a good government-in-exile to attack a Tory government for cuts, etc.

Isabel Hardman

Tory MPs express concern about ‘stateless’ plan for terror suspects

Concern is growing across the House of Commons about Theresa May's last-minute amendment to the Immigration Bill rendering foreign-born terror suspects 'stateless'. Today on Radio 4's the Week in Westminster, I interviewed Laura Sandys and Mark Reckless, two Tory MPs who occupy rather different ends of the Conservative spectrum. But both expressed discomfort with this proposal, and were clear they'd voted for it because they'd been promised a briefing afterwards.

James Forsyth

It’s cohabitation, not coalition now

The Tories and the Liberal Democrats are increasingly going their separate ways. But they’ll stay in government together until the election is called. As one Whitehall Lib Dem told me recently, ‘We’re not in a coalition now. We’re just cohabiting’ During the immigration bill, it was striking how Tory Ministers abstained on the Raab amendment while Lib Dem ministers voted against. Indeed, if there had been more votes, there would have been more coalition splits for the government had agreed to suspend ‘collective responsibility’ on various amendments. Oddly enough, though, this distancing is one of the reasons why the coalition looks likely to go the distance.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Serious concerns about plans to render terror suspects ‘stateless’

The row over the Immigration Bill is by no means over. It will go to the Lords next, where peers will doubtless have a few things to say about certain aspects of it. Theresa May is still in a hurry to get it through Parliament, so there will likely be some interesting tricks from the government side to try to speed things up. But Conservative MPs are also very concerned about something they backed last night which gained far less attention. The Home Secretary rushed out an amendment on Wednesday night which would render 'stateless' foreign-born terror suspects. The details are actually rather alarming: someone who had already naturalised in this country would have their passport taken away from them.

Isabel Hardman

Why a summit in the pub with Hollande is the last thing Cameron needs today

After the week he's had in the Commons, no-one would blame David Cameron for heading for the pub today. Unfortunately, he's got François Hollande in tow as he pitches up at a pub in his constituency, and the pair are supposed to be discussing European reform over the pork scratchings. This isn't great timing, frankly. The rebellious mood of the Tory party is in part down to a desire from backbenchers for more details of Cameron's European renegotiation plan - and signs that he's going to get what he wants too. A summit with another norther European country might yield more positive noises on this, as Cameron does have allies on the notion of European reform (although not the sort of reform to Britain's relationship with the EU that his backbenchers want).

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Raab amendment fails – but govt left looking weak and confused

So Labour did save the government's bacon by voting against the Raab amendment on deportation while the government abstained on it. 97 MPs backed Dominic Raab's amendment with the two tellers, that's 99 MPs): a very clear message to ministers. This includes 86 Conservatives, according to the vote analysis, and 9 Labour MPs. The Mills amendment wasn't voted on, so we'll never know how successful the whips were in driving that rebellion to ground. There are a number of things that are remarkable about this. The first is the utter disorganisation not just within the parties but also across the parties. The Opposition decided to vote against something that the government told them was illegal but the government itself did not vote against it. Which makes the government look confused at best.

Alex Massie

The Battle for Threadneedle Street

I thought it obvious that Mark Carney's trip to Scotland yesterday was a bad day for Alex Salmond and the Scottish nationalists. Sure, the governor of the Bank of England said, a currency union between Scotland the the rump UK could happen and be made to work but it would be fraught with difficulty and sacrifice too. Do you really want to do that? How lucky do you feel? Carney, being a Canadian and therefore a man crippled by politeness, did not add "punk". In response the SNP were reduced to pushing a meaningless poll which found 70% of Britons favouring a currency union after independence. That is, 70% of the 97% of people who have not thought much about this or who know nothing about it favour the status quo. Perhaps that sounds harsh or insulting; it isn't meant to be.

James Forsyth

David Cameron and the Tory payroll vote to abstain on the Raab amendment

As we revealed on Twitter earlier, David Cameron and the Tory payroll vote will abstain on Dominic Raab’s amendment. Downing Street’s logic is that they are sympathetic to the amendment’s aims but believe it to be non-compliant, eg not compatible with the law, and so are barred from voting for it by the ministerial code. But the Liberal Democrats will vote against the amendment, which is another sign of how the two coalition parties are now merely cohabiting . Inside Downing Street, they hope that this position will prevent a split in the Tory ranks and I suspect that this will help the whips persuade a few more MPs not to vote for the Mills amendment.

Isabel Hardman

The whips are getting stronger – but will it be enough to stop Raab?

So now that the Speaker has called Dominic Raab's amendment on deportation, the government whips have a frenzied few hours ahead of them as they try to peel off rebels. But this amendment has 106 signatures (two have joined since yesterday) and the rebels are expecting more to back it too. Labour told Coffee House yesterday that it will not support something that is illegal - but that still leaves room for the party to abstain rather than vote against. So we now have a situation where the amendment that caused all the fuss over the past few months - the Mills amendment on transitional controls for Bulgarian and Romanian migrants - is diminishing in support, while the Raab amendment, which snuck in at the last minute, is growing in power and causing all the fuss at the last minute.

Wednesday

Sebastian Payne

Audio: Douglas Carswell on why he was wrong to rebel

Douglas Carswell is one of the Conservatives' most active Euro rebels. So we invited him to our View From 22 podcast to discuss this week's leading article, which says the rebellion has descended into childish attempts to destabilise the Prime Minister. Given that he has rebelled dozens of times, we thought, he'd disagree. To our surprise, he instead told us  he has had a rather substantial change of heart — and has decided to give up rebelling. Furthermore he says that, on reflection, he regrets not only signing tomorrow's rebel amendment on immigration but Bernard Jenkin's letter to No.10 on EU regulation. Towards the end of the podcast, he poses a striking question to his fellow Eurosceptic rebels: 'What is it we now want, guys?

Isabel Hardman

Labour rejects rebel deportation call as Immigration Bill crisis talks continue

Labour will not support Dominic Raab's Immigration Bill amendment on the deportation of foreign criminals. A party source tells me that 'if the government are saying that something is illegal, then we can't support it'. Which will come as a relief to the whips, given the level of support for the proposal. I also hear that the Tory whips seriously intend that the amendment never reaches a vote in the first place, using the plethora of government amendments and ministers talking until the time limit on debate for the legislation is reached. This will cause uproar, but well-placed sources tell me the whips are determined that this amendment is not debated for a second time. Talks are continuing today between David Cameron and Nick Clegg on Stephen Phillips' amendments.