Uk politics

Yet again this morning comes a demonstration of the enormous gulf between gloomy economic forecasts pumped out by those opposed to Brexit and much more positive data from the real world. And guess which received the biggest headlines. Britain, claims PwC, is about to miss out on a surge in global growth – the best in seven years – as ‘uncertainty relating to Brexit’ acts as a drag on the UK economy. A survey by the CBI and a recruitment firm claims that 63 per cent of businesses think that Britain will become less competitive in the next five years. Meanwhile comes a remarkable insight into current conditions in the real economy, curiously also from the CBI.

Oh dear. Given that Jeremy Corbyn is reported to have told Glastonbury organiser Michael Eavis this summer that he would be in Downing Street by Christmas, time is running out for the Labour leader. Perhaps that's why he has downgraded his prediction to a definitely maybe. Grazia – the weekly glossy – has snagged the Labour leader's first interview with a women’s magazine. In the interview, Corbyn strikes a hopeful tone as he predicts ‘there will probably be another election in the next 12 months’  and he ‘will probably win': 'I’m ready to be Prime Minister tomorrow.’ With two polls putting the Conservatives ahead of Labour for the first time since the snap election, is Comrade Corbyn beginning to have doubts?

Theresa May’s Brexit statement in the Commons yesterday 'told us a great deal about what has happened already,’ says the Daily Telegraph. But the detail on ‘what happens next’ was thin on the ground. Once again, the PM ‘reaffirmed that the UK is leaving the EU on March 29, 2019’. Yet this told us little we didn’t already know when Article 50 was triggered six months ago. ‘The question now to be resolved is not whether we are leaving but on what basis,’ says the Telegraph. So what does Britain actually want from Brexit? The PM said, not for the first time, that the aim was to secure a “bespoke and ambitious” trade deal’ between the UK and the EU.

After the government suffered its first defeat in the Commons on Wednesday, questions are being asked over what and who was to blame. Aside from the 11 Brexit rebels who chose to back an amendment calling for a 'meaningful' vote on the final deal, some are pointing the finger of blame at the new Chief Whip, Julian Smith. With a vote next week on Theresa May's amendment to put the date of Britain's exit into the bill, the pressure is on for Smith to prevent any further embarrassment to the Prime Minister. Happily, Smith appears to be taking things in his stride.

It's official. Theresa May's Christmas wish has been granted. At the EU council meeting today, EU leaders agreed to move Brexit talks on to the second phase of talking trade. Announcing the news on social media, Donald Tusk, the European Council president, sent his 'congratulations' to Theresa May. https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/941630669939249152 Moving forward, the EU withdrawal agreement will now be formalised and  talks will move on to the new relationship between the UK and EU post-Brexit. The first issue to be discussed will be the transition period with Brussels insistent that all EU Law will apply until the end of the transition and all four freedoms will continue. This means freedom of movement is set to continue.

EU leaders look set to formally approve a move on to the next stage in Brexit talks today in Brussels. Yet back home, this week saw the government suffer its first defeat on Brexit legislation in Parliament. So will the actions of the Tory rebels leave the government hamstrung? The Tory rebellion may prove to be a 'momentous vote foreshadowing serious cross-party opposition’ to Britain’s departure from the EU, says the FT. Or it could just be ‘fury and thunder signifying nothing’. What it certainly shows though, according to the FT, is that Parliament is willing to stick up for itself. The ‘Brexit mutineers’ ‘should be congratulated’, says the paper.

The decision made by 11 Conservative MPs to rebel and back Dominic Grieve's amendment for a 'meaningful vote' on the final Brexit deal has received a mixed reaction in the Conservative party. Nadine Dorries – a one-time serial rebel herself – has suggested they ought to be deselected, while Henry Smith managed a slightly more nuanced tone on the Daily Politics when he said the rebels had 'betrayed' voters. Add to this, several hostile front pages naming and shaming the rebels and there's a feeling that ostracism is the preferred way to deal with them. As Robert Peston writes on Coffee House, in practical terms the Brexit rebellion is an embarrassment for May, not a disaster.

This morning has brought predictable outrage about Tory ‘traitors’. The Prime Minister has been undermined, Guy Verhofstadt has had his fun describing it as a ‘good day for democracy’. The government has been reduced to damage-limitation, suggesting that last night’s defeat – which means that Parliament will now have the final say on a Brexit deal – won’t derail its plans. That is true. Allowing Parliament the final judgement on the deal almost certainly won’t alter the outcome: Britain will leave the EU on 29 March 2019 with whatever deal the government is able to cut with Michel Barnier and his team.

Some Brexiteers are angry. This is not news. This has been true since about 20 minutes after the referendum result was declared. There are some Leavers who have been looking, since 24 June last year, for a new grievance, fresh evidence they are being betrayed and denied, generally by some shadowy group they describe as 'the establishment' or 'the elite'. (Please note that I say 'some' Leavers, not all. More people in politics and journalism should distinguish between members of a group and the whole group). Some of that anger is understandable. For years and decades, anyone who espoused leaving the EU was ignored and marginalised and called a crackpot. I’d be angry too if someone told me my views were illegitimate or mad.