Theresa may

Theresa May gave a defiant statement to the house on the Special Immigration Appeals Committee’s (SIAC)  decision to uphold Abu Qatada’s appeal against deportation to Jordan on grounds that he would not receive a fair trial. She vowed to fight on by ‘appealing the decision’, which prompts the question: how will she do that? It’s necessary to understand what the SIAC considered (here is its judgment and here is a précis). First, it examined whether or not evidence given by Qatada’s former co-defendants in an earlier trial (from which Qatada was absent), Abu Hawsher and Al-Hamasher, is admissible in Qatada’s retrial.

Theresa May’s political stock has risen this week. Announcing an intention to opt-out of EU law and order directives pleased Tory MPs while her decision not to extradite Gary McKinnon was popular. But we’ve also seen the Home Secretary operating -rarely for her - beyond her brief. She played a key role in pushing Andrew Mitchell out, something she effectively confirmed on the Sunday Politics. When Andrew Neil pressed her on this, she simply replied ‘I’m not going to talk about private conversations’.

Yvette Cooper was in a stern mood this afternoon when she responded to the Home Secretary's announcement about plans to opt-out of 130 European law and order measures and then re-adopt those which it fancies. Her main gripe was that she hadn't been sent Theresa May's statement about the plans until 45 minutes before it was delivered in the Commons, but she was also peeved about the content. The Shadow Home Secretary argued that ministers 'haven't actually told us anything today at all', arguing that the different limbs of the coalition were doing entirely different things on this matter. While David Cameron had spoken about an opt-out, Nick Clegg had said the government was 'minded' to opt out, and May had only given the 'current thinking, Cooper complained.

If feminism is 'a creed of women’s solidarity', do you pick and choose about which women you’re in solidarity with? In the case of Harriet Harman, the answer is, well obviously. If you’re a Tory you can’t really join in the creed. In an interview with Total Politics magazine she was incredulous at the notion that the Home Secretary, Theresa May describes herself as a feminist. 'If you’re actually political, you can’t be a Conservative and a feminist,' she said. So there you have it. But why? Because it’s 'all about equality and fairness'. 'Ultimately, delivering for women in this country – in equality, childcare, helping with the elderly, maternity pay and leave – is Labour’s mission, not the Tories.

G4S' security arrangements for the Olympic games are turning into the story that keeps on giving, which is a good thing for journalists only, given the opening ceremony is just weeks away. The headlines this morning aren't just about the 'Olympic chaos' that Theresa May tried to address when she made a statement to the Commons yesterday, but contain more revelations: staff failing to notice dummy explosives during test exercises, 18 and 19-year-old 'yobs' being recruited to fill the spaces, and the firm not being penalised for failing to recruit enough staff. That last revelation is awkward for May, as she implied yesterday that there was a chance G4S could face penalties.

In nominating the lawyer and former rail regulator Tom Winsor as her choice to be the next chief inspector of constabulary, the home secretary has stoked more discontent among the ranks of the Police Federation. Not only is he the first non-police officer ever to be nominated to the role, but he is also the author of a bold review of pay and conditions that made long-overdue recommendations to modernise the police workforce. For this reason alone, the Police Federation is dismayed by the nomination, and MPs on the Home Affairs Select Committee (meeting today) may yet try to block him.

Theresa May has been in the news recently, as she introduces plans to stop spouses coming to Britain unless they have savings of £18,000 and an additional £2,400 for each foreign born child they bring with them. The Home Secretary told Andrew Marr earlier this morning:  ‘It is important that we say you should be able to support yourselves and not be reliant on the state.’     She also reiterated her intention to stop foreign prisoners, whose family live in Britain, from using article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which includes the right to ‘private and family life’, to resist deportation. She is going call a vote in the Commons next week to determine the balance between the interests of prisoners and the wider public.

As the Jubilee celebrations draw to a close, attention once more returns to events in Europe. There’s a distinct sense among politicians, and especially coalition ministers, that what is happening there will change British politics in a huge way. As one senior MP said to me over the weekend, if a country leaves the Euro then the economic crisis that follows will reset the rules of the politics.   Measures that would have been deemed impossible six months ago will suddenly be on the cards. We’ve already seen a flash of this with Theresa May’s suggestion that the freedom of movement across the European Union could be suspended in the wake of a Eurozone break-up.

Theresa May’s suggestion that Britain could suspend the free movement of people in the event of a Eurozone break up is a reminder of just how transformative an event the falling apart of the single currency would be. The Home Secretary is a cautious politician who picks her word carefully, so when she says that the government ‘will be doing contingency planning’ about the immigration implications of a Eurozone break-up you know it is serious. One of the things that makes this such an intriguing development is that it suggests a shift in government thinking on the severity of the crisis that could be coming.

If Theresa May loses her job over this kerfuffle over Abu Qatada’s appeals deadline, would anyone in the Cabinet be safe? If you were to rank the blunders this government has made, it wouldn’t even make the top 20. The Home Office is notoriously dysfunctional, and the real surprise is that May has made it thus far with only two or three major skirmishes. It’s fun for her enemies to claim she made a basic mistake, but it’s not clear-cut. In the weird world of European law, the number of days in a three month period can vary depending on things like the estimated postal time between London and Luxembourg. Far simpler if British justice was decided in Britain – precisely what the founders of the European Convention on Human Rights envisaged.

In Westminster, the debate about the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Court of Human Rights is all being seen through the prism of the Abu Qatada case. Undoubtedly, the whole debate over how many days had elapsed is something Theresa May and the Home Office would have liked to avoid. It has also come at a particularly unfortunate time for the government when people are prepared to believe it has been incompetent even when it hasn't been. But what, I expect, is more significant in the long term than Abu Qatada is the fact that the Brighton conference on the ECHR is not going to deliver the meaningful reforms that David Cameron wants. It is becoming increasingly clear that the aim of reforming the ECHR from within is a pipe dream.