Theresa may

After Theresa May's Cabinet agreed on the 'need to take action' in Syria, it seems a matter of when, not if, military strikes against the Assad regime take place. But the strikes won't be the end of the matter politically. Labour have been quick to stir up trouble, with Jeremy Corbyn describing the government as 'waiting for instructions' from Donald Trump. The British government is also struggling to keep up with a Russian propaganda barrage.

As Theresa May meets with her Cabinet to discuss a possible response to the suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria, it's widely expected that any action she does take will be actioned without a vote in Parliament. The Prime Minister does not need to have approval through a Commons vote but recent precedent means that a lot of MPs think that she should. In that vein, today Jeremy Corbyn warned that MPs must be consulted on any UK military action. This is unsurprising but May's bigger problem is that a sizeable portion of the Tory party is also sceptical of the merits of intervention. Were the decision to go to Parliament, May would almost certainly have to rely on Labour rebels’ votes for her majority in this instance.

Ever since last year’s general election, when Jeremy Corbyn inspired the strongest Labour surge since 1945, the Conservatives have been unsure if this was a freak occurrence or the start of something bigger. As they have learnt to their cost, opinion polls aren’t as reliable as they once were: only election results matter. There will be plenty next month, with seats on more than 150 councils all over England up for grabs. The Tories are nervous in lots of areas. But what terrifies them is London. The capital has served as the incubator of Corbynism, a brand of politics once laughed off as a niche Islington interest, yet now with an undeniable national appeal. All 32 London boroughs are up for election, and nothing is certain.

Theresa May has never published her case blaming Russia for the Salisbury poisoning. She has reason to be wary of Blair-style intelligence dossiers, and she didn’t need to make everything public to win the support of allies. But as things stand, her case against Russia is open to misinterpretation by the Kremlin. As we have seen with this morning’s headlines. Yesterday, Sky News interviewed Gary Aitkenhead, chief executive of Porton Down, who said: “We were able to identify it as Novichok, to identify it was a military-grade nerve agent. We have not verified the precise source, but we have provided the scientific information to the government, who have then used a number of other sources to piece together the conclusions that they have come to.

It might be raining outside but the political weather has changed, I say in The Sun this morning. Theresa May is now in the strongest position she’s been in since the general election, and Jeremy Corbyn the weakest. When May addressed the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday, she received a—rather unusual—standing ovation. She herself was in upbeat form telling the meeting that the economy had turned a corner. This, perhaps, explains why the government is now prepared to talk about extra money for the NHS and defence. The Prime Minister who cut such a reduced figure after the election is now marshalling the Western coalition that is pushing back against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Theresa May covered a fair bit of ground in her statement to the Commons on last week's European Council meeting. She talked about how EU leaders were supporting Britain in the stand-off with Russia following the Salisbury attack, on the agreement that leaders reached on the next stage of Brexit negotiations, steel tariffs, and on allegations that her own political secretary Stephen Parkinson outed his former partner as gay. On Russia, the Prime Minister told the House that 'I have found great solidarity from our friends and partners in the EU, North America, Nato and beyond over the past three weeks as we have confronted the aftermath of the Salisbury incident'.

Theresa May has had by far her most successful EU Council this week. The terms of the transition deal were signed off and, in a genuine diplomatic achievement, she got the EU to collectively recognise that no one other than Russia could have been responsible for the Salisbury attack. But as I say in The Sun today, that doesn’t mean the government should ease off on ‘no deal’ planning. There is a sense in Whitehall that with the negotiations progressing well, there’s not much point in rocking the boat by preparing for a no deal scenario or spending money on things that might not ultimately be needed. One of those intimately involved in no deal planning complains that ‘there is an institutional reluctance to continue working on contingency in Whitehall’.

Since Michael Gove took over Defra, the Conservatives have been on a mission to rebrand as the party of the environment. However, some have questioned whether it's a move that comes from the heart – or one which is down to more cynical reasoning. Theresa May's former director of communications Kate Perrior said in the Times that her former boss's enthusiasm for protecting the environment 'may not be insincere but it is certainly new': 'When I was at No 10, Andrea Leadsom, then the environment secretary, was told to make the plan as boring as possible.' However, times are a'changing in the May household. May's husband Philip took part in a phone canvassing session at CCHQ last night where he presented a canvasser with a Conservative-branded reusable cup.

Brexit is going well, apparently. And the prime minister seemed in chipper mood at PMQs. She was even enjoying herself. To neutrals this is a distressing sight. To fans of the Tory leader it must seem downright dangerous. History has taught us that when May feels she’s on top the world, the world promptly lands on top of May. Corbyn raised council tax. His theme was Tory misrule, higher bills and vanishing services. Privatisation fetishists at Northamptonshire, he said, had caused the council to implode entirely. May felt herself on solid ground as she fought back by cataloguing Corbyn’s troubles at council level which have led to two recent Labour defections to the Tories. She seemed to relish the thunderous dissent raised by the opposition benches.

Although Theresa May has earned a reputation for being robotic and predictable, today she did something that took almost everyone by surprise. On a visit to Salisbury in the wake of the poisoning of a Russian double agent, May met with locals. When one put out their fist to greet her, May went in for a fist bump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsUHDIoklWg Perhaps there's hope for the Maybot yet...

Theresa May has been continuing to call Britain's allies today to discuss the poisoning of Sergei Skripal. She is expected to give a statement to the Commons tomorrow about Russia's response to the allegation that the state was responsible for the attack, and has been seeking assurances that countries such as France, Germany and the United States are on her side. This evening, she spoke to Donald Trump, who told her that 'the US was with the UK all the way, agreeing that the Russian Government must provide unambiguous answers as to how this nerve agent came to be used', according to the Downing Street read-out. You can almost hear Trump saying the words 'all the way', but May was probably listening more keenly for things the President doesn't appear to have said.