Theresa may

Tory MPs and ministers have consistently under-estimated their leader. What Theresa May achieved at Chequers yesterday was extraordinary. She persuaded her cabinet to sign up for a Brexit plan that drives a coach and horses through what the Brexiters in her team – especially Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – said Brexit was all about, during that historic referendum campaign. What is more, at Chequers yesterday, Gove was a cheerleader for a plan that would enshrine in treaty what is supposedly anathema to his Brexit cause – that the UK now and forever would be subject to European Union rules and regulations governing the quality and safety of the goods we make and buy and also the food we produce and consume.

Theresa May's Cabinet away day is finally over and the Prime Minister can go to sleep safe in the knowledge that there have been no resignations... yet. In a No 10 statement this evening, May said the Cabinet had agreed its collective position for the Brexit negotiations – for a common rule book on industrial goods and agricultural products. This means the UK would have to in effect follow EU rules in these sectors: ‘Our proposal will create a U.K. - EU free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products. This maintains high standards in these areas, but we will also ensure that no new changes in the future take place without the approval of our Parliament.

It's the night before the Chequers summit and it's all starting to kick off. After James revealed on Coffee House that the key Brexit customs paper passed by No 10 to Cabinet Ministers ahead of tomorrow's meeting could be perceived as effectively ruling out a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, Brexiteers have been quick to see red. Right on cue, Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that if May's proposal is as reported it spells vassal state. The Brexit Secretary has written a letter to the Prime Minister outlining his problems with the government approach. Meanwhile, 46 Tory MPs – including 11 former cabinet ministers – have written to Theresa May, urging her to listen to business ahead of her crucial Chequers meeting on Friday.

With just two days to go until Theresa May's big Chequers away day, the Cabinet headed to 22 Old Queen for a pre-sesh. Theresa May held court in the garden while Michael Gove charmed guests on the merits of getting rid of tusk – ivory, not the EU leader naturally. Given that this was no normal Spectator summer party – instead the Spectator's 190th birthday party – guests were in such a merry mood that even the odd speck of rain failed to dampen proceedings. Here are a range of photos from the bash, courtesy of Alan Davidson and Anne Schwarz: [caption id="attachment_10115402" align="alignnone" width="520"] Jess Phillips.[/caption] [caption id="attachment_10115392" align="alignnone" width="520"] Michael Gove.

How is Theresa May's big £20bn funding pledge landing with the public? That's the question Tory MPs are beginning to ask. The Prime Minister's – currently unfunded – early birthday present for the NHS to celebrate its 70th birthday was announced to much fanfare last month. It was meant as an agenda setting policy that would help to define her premiership, show there was more to Mayism than Brexit and boost the Tories' standing with voters. As of yet though, signs of an immediate Tory boost are absent. A YouGov poll – taken 25-26 June about a week after it was announced - puts the Tories ahead with a five-point lead on 42pc and Labour on 37pc. However, it's not that the Tories have gained since the last poll – just that Labour have fallen behind.

'It’s not just backbench Conservative MPs who expect ministers to pull together behind May: the great swathe of the electorate which either voted Leave, or voted Remain but recognises that a united team will achieve a better trading relationship for the future than a divided one, expects it too.' This is the warning Graham Brady issued to badly behaved Tory ministers over the weekend. Writing in the Guardian, the chair of the all-powerful 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs, presented the feuding Cabinet with a choice: get behind May or prepare for a Corbyn victory at the next election similar to 1997. This isn't the first time Brady has had to speak out in a bid to get his party to take a minute to breathe before going into self-destruct mode.

Given the way her Cabinet ministers are behaving at the moment, Theresa May is really rather used to dealing with fragile egos. This will come in handy over the next month when the Prime Minister has to go from what promises to be an extremely tricky Nato summit straight into Donald Trump's visit to the UK. As James says in his politics column this week, the challenges of these events, along with the ongoing problems both in the Cabinet and Parliament over Brexit, will make July one of the hardest months of May's premiership to date. But trying to tell her warring ministers to shut up seems easy compared to the foreign policy challenges that the Prime Minister is facing. They would not be easy for any leader.

'What you can see is someone who has the instincts of a Brexiteer, but the cautious pragmatism of a Remainer, which is where I think the British people are.' This is how Jeremy Hunt tried to sell Theresa May's leadership on the Andrew Marr sofa this Sunday. After a choppy few weeks for No. 10, the Health Secretary made clear that he felt May was still the right person for the job of Prime Minister. Perhaps it's just pure coincidence then that one could also substitute Hunt's name with May's in that endorsement. Like May, Hunt is a Remainer turned Brexiteer. A point he also proved on Sunday when he said that Airbus's Brexit 'threat' over potential loss of jobs was 'inappropriate'. The blunt comments were surprising given that Hunt was once seen as mild-mannered.

Next week’s EU Council will see little progress on Brexit. As I write in The Sun today, migration—not Brexit—is the biggest issue on the agenda for the EU 27. Migration is roiling European politics again. Angela Merkel’s coalition is threatening to break apart over the issue. While in Italy, the new government is threatening to close its southern border—blocking migrant rescue ships from landing—and open its northern border, encouraging illegal migrants and asylum seekers to head north to Germany and Sweden. So worried is the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that he is hosting a mini-summit this Sunday to try and come up with some policies that can ease Merkel’s domestic political troubles.

Who is taking all the big, difficult decisions in government at the moment? Not Theresa May, who seems to be caught up in a particularly bad bout of prevarication. Sajid Javid's announcement today that there will be a review into the use of medicinal cannabis came just 24 hours after his boss said there was a 'very good reason' for the current rules being in place. Yesterday May had also tried to block Javid from raising the matter at Cabinet, arguing that it hadn't been on the agenda. It's just one example of Cabinet ministers mounting very public campaigns for a policy change which they then get all the credit for.

So the Tories have, as The Spectator predicted last month, announced an extra £384 million a week for the National Health Service - something Theresa May was perfectly happy to sell this morning as being the 'Brexit dividend' that Boris Johnson had been pressuring her for. This is an odd choice, given it is impossible to know what the real 'Brexit dividend' will be when we haven't yet left the European Union. Indeed, May couldn't say very much at all about how this extra NHS money will be funded: that's presumably because no Prime Minister wants to tell voters how much more tax they'll be paying, regardless of whether that tax is funding something as salient as the health service.

Next week, Theresa May will announce a massive cash injection for the NHS. As I say in The Sun this morning, in normal times, this would be one of the defining moments of her premiership. But this announcement will be overshadowed by the latest parliamentary drama over Brexit. Westminster will be waiting to see if May can win her Wednesday showdown with the Remain Tory rebels over how much control parliament should have over the Brexit process. Those close to May admit that they just don’t know if they have the votes to win. One of those intimately involved in trying to see off the rebels admits that they are now reliant on Labour Eurosceptics coming to her rescue.

How did the government manage to engineer a 'compromise' amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill that's left it in greater danger of a defeat? On Tuesday, Theresa May gave the pro-Remain rebels assurances that there would be an amendment that they could support in order to avoid defeat on that day, but the amendment published by the government clearly hasn't met those assurances. It also initially seems bafflingly clumsy that the key figure on the Remain side, Dominic Grieve, was not consulted about the final wording of the government's amendment. Why drop something on the chief rebel when you want to avoid a rebellion?