Netanyahu

Will Bibi go into exile?

In January 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu could leave office for the final time. In the middle of a corruption trial at home and facing arrest in many countries due to an International Criminal Court warrant, Netanyahu can’t spend his retirement traveling the world or relaxing at home.  Some have speculated that Bibi, who’s grown to enjoy the finer things in life, might follow in the footsteps of the two Yairs – his younger son Yair and former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro – and head off to a luxurious exile in Florida, sheltered by the Trump administration from his worries at home and abroad.  Of course, this all depends on whether he loses the election.

Bibi

Israel is the new Ukraine

J.D. Vance didn't call Benjamin Netanyahu out by name, but in sternly reprimanding the "Cabinet of the Israeli government" from the White House podium on Thursday, he sent Israel and its Prime Minister a clear message. In demanding more respect, raising the threat of severe consequences and ordering the country to get in line, the Vice President echoed the public fight he picked with another world leader and US ally: Volodymyr Zelensky. It wasn't quite as spectacular as the now infamous Oval Office blow up in February last year between Trump, Vance and the Ukrainian president. But Vance went further in his criticism of Israel than any other US President or Vice President in recent memory.

Vance

Only Iran is happy with Trump’s peace deal

President Trump might have thought that negotiating an interim diplomatic understanding with Iran was going to be the hard part. But selling the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding to the public is proving to be just as laborious.  Trump deserves blame not because he negotiated a poor peace deal but rather because he decided to go to war in the first place Less than 24 hours after the document was released, virtually nobody is particularly satisfied with it. Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill, normally deferential or wholly supportive of Trump’s agenda across-the-board, are already expressing nervousness at the terms and demanding a full briefing from the administration about how the White House plans on executing them.

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Trump

Is Trump going to defund Israel?

Cutting US military aid to Israel was once an impossible dream of the most extreme fringe of the Democratic party. Today axing the $3.8 billion annual package is a bipartisan issue being spearheaded by the GOP. The number of free US tax dollars that Israel would receive to spend on its military under a GOP plan being discussed by both governments would be reduced to zero. The brainchild of Marlin Stutzman, a staunch Israel ally and Republican congressman from Indiana, the proposed memorandum of understanding, which would come into effect when the current deal ends in 2028, now forms the basis of the negotiations and was endorsed by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Is the US-Israel alliance breaking down?

This morning at 5.53am, air raid sirens sounded across Tel Aviv. War-weary locals largely went about their business as usual unfazed by the eerie wail, while out of towners headed at speed to the nearest bomb shelter. The ballistic missile was fired from Yemen and intercepted by the IDF.  At 7.02am, again, mobile phones buzzed with warnings to take shelter. Iran had fired a barrage of ballistic missiles. The beach volleyball game being played outside my hotel didn’t stop. The missiles "disintegrated” or fell harmlessly.  Israelis hardly batted an eyelid, yet regional experts say that this could be the start of a new war between Israel and Iran, the third of the year. While Iran claimed it had ended its military operations against Israel.

Israel Iran

How Israel won the war – and lost the PR battle

Regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Gaza peace deal brokered by Donald Trump, the past two years have seen Israel achieve an unprecedented litany of military accomplishments in the Middle East. The level of damage done to Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis is difficult to comprehend. The end of the Assad regime and, with American support, the demolition of the Iranian nuclear program – setting it back years at the least – were steps that many once thought impossible. Israel has emerged from the post-October 7 period unquestionably stronger in every way except one: its support around the globe, particularly among the youngest voices in the West.

Israel
Biden

The endgame: Biden’s quest for a foreign policy legacy

President Joe Biden only has a few more months before he steps out of the White House, hands over the keys to his successor and spends his remaining days soaking in the Delaware sun. But before he enjoys retirement, the lifelong public servant has a big piece of unfinished business: scoring a major foreign policy win that will secure his place in the history books. Unfortunately, dreaming about being a statesman is one thing; being one is quite another. The two conflicts that would give the president that coveted status — the wars in Gaza and Ukraine — aren’t presently amenable to diplomatic resolution. And while Biden and his advisors may be committed to doing the impossible, all the commitment in the world won’t do much if the combatants are intent on slugging it out.

Has Trump secured peace in the Middle East?

From our UK edition

20 min listen

Following the ceasefire brokered between Israel and Hamas, Donald Trump arrived triumphantly in Israel and delivered a speech to a rapturous Israeli parliament – some of whom wore red MAGA-style hats adorned with the words ‘Trump the peace president’. Trump is now in Egypt for further negotiations over securing a long-term peace in Gaza – but how realistic is it? Dan DePetris, foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune, joins Freddy Gray to discuss Trump’s achievement. Dan argues that this is just phase one and, given he believes Netanyahu has ‘no long-term strategy’, peace is a long way off. Could Netanyahu still stonewall further progress? What about the Iranian issue? And is Trump’s desire for peace eluding him on the domestic front?

Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s finest hour

This is Donald Trump’s finest hour. Speaking in the Knesset on Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called him Israel’s “greatest friend” and nominated him for the Israel Prize,” the nation’s “highest award.” Trump himself was greeted rapturously by the parliamentarians for securing a breakthrough peace deal in Gaza. Trump basked in the applause for his months-long diplomatic effort, declaring that “this is the historic dawn of a new Middle East.” But can one truly emerge? Or is this simply a temporary truce between the warring parties? Trump’s immediate accomplishment was to arrange for the release of the remaining 20 living Israeli hostages held by Hamas since its attack on October 7, 2023, when more than 1,200 Israelis were murdered.

Did Bibi miscalculate?

In her new memoirs, 107 Days, Kamala Harris recounts that in July 2024 she had an important meeting about Israel and the Gaza Strip. Harris, who was running for the presidency, hoped to show that she could pressure Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching a ceasefire with Hamas. “Netanyahu’s hooded gaze and disengaged demeanors,” she writes, “made it clear to me that he was running out the clock." His only goal was a temporary ceasefire and to undermine the Biden administration. “He wanted Trump in the seat opposite him,” Harris recalls. “Not Joe, not me. Netanyahu wanted the guy who would acquiesce to his every extreme proposal for the future of Gaza’s inhabitants and add his own plan for a land grab by his developer cronies.

Netanyahu

Is Labour ‘racist’ too? Plus Trump’s Gaza gamble & Rowling vs Watson

From our UK edition

48 min listen

This week, Michael and Maddie report from the Labour party conference in Liverpool and unpick Keir Starmer’s big speech. Was his attempt to reclaim patriotism for Labour a genuine statement of values – or a clumsy exercise in stereotypes about steelworkers, chip shops and football nostalgia? And why does Labour’s attack line on Nigel Farage risk sounding like political ‘nuclear warfare’ that could backfire outside the conference hall? And what about the Tories? With Labour bringing the fight to the Reform party, where does this leave Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives ahead of their conference later this week? They then turn to Donald Trump’s extraordinary new Middle East peace initiative.

Trump won’t be dragged into a regime-change war

The handsome pages of The Spectator World’s July issue readers will find an essay of mine arguing that the United States doesn’t win wars anymore because we don’t even understand what a modern war is. From the French Revolution to the Cold War, and in the long, warm afterglow—thankfully, non-nuclear—of Cold War success, Western elites have tended to think about wars in terms of regimes and ideologies. Winning a war is all about changing the opponent’s regime so that it endorses one’s own ideology: turning a “dictatorship” into a “liberal democracy” through the magic of bombs and bullets.

Regime change

Israel strikes Iran – how will Iran retaliate?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

Israel struck military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight in a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has begun further strikes on Friday. Iran has vowed retaliation though President Trump has warned Iran and encouraged the Iranians to continue negotiations over their nuclear programme. Further talks had been due to take place this weekend. What’s Israel’s objective? And does this underline the unpredictability of geopolitics, at a time when the UK has pledged significantly more money for defence?  Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and Michael Stephens, associate fellow at RUSI. Plus: updates on assisted dying and the government’s plans for welfare. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Trump turns on Netanyahu after securing US hostage release

As the military helicopter carrying Edan Alexander - the last remaining American hostage held by Hamas – landed on top of the Tel Aviv hospital, the crowd gathered below erupted in cheers of pent-up relief. Edan, now 21 years old – but just 19 when he was captured, was finally free following 594 days in captivity. After spending almost two years underground the American-Israel looked pale and traumatized. But remarkably he walked off the helicopter unaided. His mother, then his father, practically leaped into his arms. There was dancing and singing in the crowd around me outside the Ichilov hospital, people waved Israeli and American flags. One of them was Tslil Ben Maruch, Edan’s aunt. “I have three young kids at home, all of whom love Edan.

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The ICC’s moral reckoning over sex abuse claims

By any standard, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is in crisis. But the revelations in The Wall Street Journal – detailing explosive allegations of non-consensual sexual acts and abuse of office against its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan – have not just shaken the court’s credibility. They have obliterated it. The Journal reported that Khan faces “multiple allegations of coerced sexual intercourse,” based on documents, testimony and interviews with ICC officials. At the heart of the Journal’s investigation is a horrifying accusation: that Khan, while leading the most controversial prosecution in the ICC’s history, was allegedly engaged in a sustained pattern of sexual abuse against a junior female lawyer on his team.

Should Starmer stand up to Trump?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

Trump has blown the Overton window wide open. In a press conference yesterday alongside Benjamin Netanyahu, the US president outlined his intention to ‘take over the Gaza Strip’, displacing 1.8 million Palestinians in the process. His plan – if you can call it that – is to build ‘the Riviera of the Middle East’. Many of the countries Trump has earmarked to resettle displaced Gazans have already condemned the takeover. How will the international community respond? Elsewhere, Keir Starmer seems more motivated by a desire to observe the rule of international law than his buddy across the pond. The Chagos deal seems set to be completed in the ‘coming weeks’.

Is Keir Starmer really going to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu?

From our UK edition

11 min listen

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister Yoav Gallant as well as – separately – for Hamas military leader, Mohammed Deif. They are all wanted for alleged war crimes, but specifically regarding Netanyahu and Gallant the ICC say that, 'each bear criminal responsibility for ... the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.' So why have these warrants been issued now? And what are the implications for Labour's relationship with Israel?   Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Tom Gross, commentator on the Middle East.

Iran is playing a dangerous game

From our UK edition

A drone exploded in a sleepy Israeli seaside town yesterday. The target of the attack was Benjamin Netanyahu. By luck, the drone missed its target – Netanyahu’s home – and no one was hurt in the explosion. Hezbollah launched three drones from Lebanon toward Caesarea. Two were shot down by the Israel Defense Forces but, worryingly, the third arrived undetected. Sirens, which are supposed to warn civilians of an impending attack, did not sound, meaning no one knew they should seek refuge in a bomb shelter. The Israeli Prime Minister claimed he was not at home when the drone hit. An Iranian – or Iranian-backed – assassination of the Israeli Prime Minister (or other senior figure) would change the game completely.

Israel’s Iron Prime Minister

From our UK edition

At home, the left sees him as cynical, conniving and corrupt; while the right sees him as tired, weak and unambitious. Abroad, he is almost universally loathed and distrusted. And yet no one can deny his Machiavellian mastery of the dirty game of politics, domestic and international. Modern history has produced only two figures who fit this description. The first is Germany’s Iron Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck. The second is Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. For Bibi – his nickname and the title of his recent autobiography – read Bibismarck. Netanyahu has been Prime Minister for almost 14 of the past 15 years, not quite the 19 years Bismarck served as German chancellor.

Black Sunday: reckoning with October 7 a year later

October 7 was the bloodiest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust. Some refer to it as Israel’s 9/11, though proportionally it was like fifteen 9/11s. However, numbers rarely tell the full story and here they fall devastatingly short. I was awake when it started. I’ve always been a night owl but staying up until six in the morning is unusual for me. On that bright fall morning I heard sounds like a thunderstorm and went outside to see what was going on. I live on a hill overlooking Gush Dan, the informal megalopolis that’s home for almost half the population of this stamp-sized country. When something big happens I can often see it.

October 7