Labour party

Election Night live blog

From our UK edition

0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says "this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems - and we obviously didn't achieve what we hoped to achieve." 0637, PH: In his acceptance speech, Nick Clegg is going big on the voting problems of last night. 0634, PH: Some good news for the Lib Dems: erm, Nick Clegg holds in Sheffield Hallam. With an increased majority. 0620, JGF: Jon Cruddas holds on, he'll have a big role to play in the Labour party machinations of the last few days.

The party leaders vote

From our UK edition

David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield.

Message to the Tories: Grow Up About the New Labour Era

From our UK edition

I have been deeply disappointed by Tory negative campaigning in the past few days. The Cameroon coup was inspired, in part, by Tony Blair, so to decry 13 years of New Labour is deeply hypocritical. The message, pioneered by Oliver Letwin, was that praise would be given where it was due. Britain has become a better place since 1997 and that is true for readers of the The Spectator as much as (and perhaps more than) anyone else. At the same time, Brown's leadership of the country and his party has been woeful. The Labour Party has only itself to blame for this. It should have put up a candidate against Gordon Brown in 2007 and it should have removed him a year later.  This blog is here to give you an insight into thinking on the left.

The Labour Party Must Look to the Next Generation Now

From our UK edition

I have just watched the last images of the election campaign on the Ten O'Clock News on the BBC. David Cameron was surrounded by some seriously off-putting party apparatchiks (why not choose some of the perfectly presentable and normal-looking young people for CCHQ rather than these awful gargoyles?), meanwhile Gordon Brown was struggling to fill a room and Nick Clegg was being mobbed.  I remember a Labour spin doctor (OK it was Damian McBride) telling me that he knew Gordon could never win a beauty contest against David Cameron. He didn't seem to have twigged that modern elections are beauty contests - that is one of the reasons Tony Blair did so well against the considerably less beautiful John Major, William Hague and Michael Howard.

Two more polls point towards a hung parliament

From our UK edition

Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2).  And a ComRes effort for the Independent and ITV has the parties on 37, 28 and 28, respectively. Most Tories I've spoken with this evening are, they say, mildly pleased with the opinion polls.  Not overjoyed, of course – but they feel their party's greater firepower in the marginals means that numbers like those above will translate to a small majority.  Either way, things are certainly very close.

And now YouGov…

From our UK edition

You want more numbers? Well, the YouGov figures for the Sun have just come in, and they are: the Tories on 35 percent (no change), Labour on 28 percent (down two), and the Lib Dems on 28 percent (up 4). So far tonight, all the polls have been in hung parliament territory (on an uniform national swing). And most have Labour and the Lib Dems more or less on level-pegging. More polls here and here.  There's a good handful still to come, so keep your seat calculators to hand. UPDATE: YouGov also conducted some marginals polling.

Times/Populus has the Tories close to a majority

From our UK edition

So the Times/Populus results are in, and they have the Tories on 37 percent (up one), Labour on 28 percent (up one), and the Lib Dems on 27 percent (down one). On a uniform national swing, this would leave us in hung parliament territory. But Tories I speak to are pretty confident that numbers like these, if replicated tomorrow, could give them a majority. Elsewhere, TNS-BMRB has the Tories on 33, Labour on 27 and the Lib Dems on 29.  Angus Reed for Political Betting has Tories on 36, Labour on 24, and the Lib Dems on 29.

Brown’s survival instincts

From our UK edition

Alas, and most reluctantly, you've got to hand it to Brown: he's a scrapper. Just watching coverage of his speech in Bradford now, and he seems to be on punchy form.  The message is stridently negative, of course.  And he has entrenched himself, as David noted earlier, back behind the old "investment vs cuts" line (although now he calls it "selfish individiualism over public investment").  But this is clearly where the PM is happiest and at his most comfortable.  Aggressive clunk is simply what he does best. The question hanging over the dying stages of the campaign is this: will the negativity cut through?

EU revises British economic forecasts up

From our UK edition

Faisal Islam has the story that the EU has revised Britain’s economic prospects up to 1.2 percent in 2010 from 0.9 percent. Next year, the EU predict to 2.1 percent, the highest of major European nations. Is this a crumb of comfort for Brown? Well yes, but the EU’s predictions are still someway off Alistair Darling’s forecasts. His growth prediction for 2010 is in the region of 1 percent to 1.5 percent, which is closer than his predictions for 2011, when he expects GDP to increase by 3 percent to 3.5 percent. In any event, the upgraded figures are probably too small to shift the polls at this stage.

Deceitful Brown returns to the old dividing line

From our UK edition

Labour’s campaign becomes ever more like The Prisoner. Every time the plot seems decided, it veers-off in the contrary direction. The Prime Minister was interviewed by The Times yesterday and I feel for those who conducted it, stuck in the vortex of what Gordon will say next. If you cast into the recesses of memory, you’ll recall that yesterday morning was tactical voting morning. They were all at it – Balls, Brown, Alexander and Hain. If you’re yellow threatened by blue, vote red; if you’re red threatened by blue, vote yellow. It was so confusing I half expected them to endorse blue if you’re red threatened by yellow. That was yesterday morning. By mid-afternoon Brown did what he does best. He changed his mind.

An economic coalition makes political sense

From our UK edition

If you believe, as most people probably do, that Robert Chote of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Mervin King of the Bank of England should be listened to, then two conclusion emerge: one, that a new government’s budget-slashing will be far, far worse than anything the main parties have hitherto acknowledged; and that after a parliament of deficit-busting, the party in charge will be severely punished by the voters. It stands to reason, therefore, that it would be better to spread the pain, even if one party has a near-majority or an outright majority.

The campaign money game

From our UK edition

Here's a minor turn-up for the political anoraks' scrapbooks: donations to Labour outstripped those going to the Tory party in the third week of the campaign. Brown & Co. were handed £1,416,863 against the Tories' £645,250. Which is no sign of an effective campaign - after all, almost all of Labour's publicity has been heavily negative. But it is a turnaround from the first week, when the Tories received £1,455,812 to Labour's £783,159. Another thing to note is the downturn in Lib Dem donations. They jumped up to £120,000 in the second week, but have now sunk back to £64,000.  The Tories, in particular, will be hoping that that represents a slowing of the Nick Clegg bandwagon.

Labour’s Tactical Voting Blunder

From our UK edition

Pete asks whether Labour's tactical voting ploy can work. My suspicion is that it cannot and will not. This is not 1997. There is all the difference in the world between voting tactically against a government and voting tactically against the idea of a government that may otherwise come to power. More generally, the advice from Ed Balls and the others that tactical voting is the smart thing to do is an admission that Labour no longer believes it can win. Given the state of the polls that' hardly a startling conclusion but the problem, from Labour's perspective, with conceding it publicly is that it cannot possibly motivate Labour voters to get to the polls. Quite the reverse in fact. The message "Abandon Ship! Save Yourselves!" is no way for the party to hold its nerve.

Will the tactical voting plea work?

From our UK edition

There's only one question which matters when it comes to Labour's tactical voting plea: will it work?  You can certainly see Brown & Co's thinking on this.  This is the election, after all, where the Lib Dems have become a viable option for a lot more people - so they might act as a speed bump for people rushing away from Labour and towards the Tories.  And anything which depresses the Tory vote gives Labour a greater chance of holding the most seats in the House, and of making some kind of post-election pact with Nick Clegg. But as David said earlier, Labour's osciallating stance towards the Lib Dems - lofty sneers one minute, sickly grins the next - is hardly convincing.  And neither is the timing.

Labour PPC: Gordon Brown is the worst Prime Minister ever

From our UK edition

At last, the election has thrown up a real character. Manish Sood, Labour PPC for North-West Norfolk, has told the Lynn Newspaper: ‘Immigration has gone up which is creating friction within communities. The country is getting bigger and messier. The role of ministers has gone bureaucratic and the action of ministers has gone downhill – it is corrupt. The loss of social values is the basic problem and this is not what the Labour Party is about. I believe Gordon Brown has been the worst Prime Minister we have had in this country. It is a disgrace and he owes an apology to the people and the Queen.’ There is a further act in the farce. Mr Sood campaigns on the imaginative ticket of 'taking Britain back to the 1970s.

From carpet-bombing to love-bombing

From our UK edition

Labour’s relationship with the Lib Dems gets more like Dallas’s JR and Sue Ellen with each passing day. Contemptuous and contemptible one day to lisping breathless compliments the next.  Gordon Brown snarled at Nick Clegg during last week’s debate. Clegg would, Brown argued, leap gaily into bed with the Tories on Friday morning - a departure from the previous ‘we must form a progressive coalition’ line pushed by Andrew Adonis. This morning brings another volte face: Brown and several cabinet ministers urge ‘progressives’ to vote tactically. Writing in the Guardian, Gordon Brown pitches for Lib Dems to vote Labour in 100 Tory/Labour marginals.

The Tories plan to cut early – but how would their opponents respond?

From our UK edition

Oh yes, the Tories are broadcasting more Ready For Government noises this morning.  There's an article in the Telegraph suggesting that David Cameron would choose a minority government ahead of coalition with the Lib Dems.  And the Guardian reports that a Tory government would set out a bulkload of spendings cuts in the first six months of office, when, as a senior Tory puts it, the "excitement of the general election aftermath" will still be hanging in the air. You can understand the Tory thinking here.  Not only will they find it easier to achieve things during the heat and righteous fury of early government, but they will also need to seize something like a mandate for the cuts which have remained off-stage during the election campaign.