Immigration

How will Labour respond to the threat from Ukip? Thanks to today's scoop by the Telegraph's Ben Riley-Smith, we now know. A leaked internal memo (pdf here) singles out immigration as the biggest issue to tackle and advises activists ‘moving the conversation on’ to another topic — something that has annoyed many in and outside of the party. With Ed Miliband outlining Labour's immigration plan for the general election today, the timing and contents of this document couldn't be any worse for the leader. Here are four things you need to know about the paper, entitled ‘Campaigning against Ukip’: 1.

The response to the Ukip surge has reached the panic stage. Just as British business and academia chorused the economic benefits of Union in the final stages of the Scottish referendum campaign, now their refrain is of the economic benefits of immigration. A letter from ten chief executives in the Financial Times pronounced that unimpeded immigration from Eastern Europe is highly valuable. The previous week economists estimated that immigration from Eastern Europe had contributed £20 billion net in taxes. But Ukip supporters are no longer overawed by businessmen and dons, so what is to be done? Within the accepted rules of English social hierarchy, the tempting implication for the rest of us is condescension.

What is the reasoning behind Nigel Farage’s recent spate of apparent gaffes? Following his breastfeeding comments last week, the Ukip leader blamed his lateness to an event in Wales on open-door immigration, as well as problems navigating the motorway: ‘It took me six hours and 15 minutes to get here - it should have taken three-and-a-half to four. That is nothing to do with professionalism, what it does have to do with is a country in which the population that is going through the roof chiefly because of open-door immigration and the fact that the M4 is not as navigable as it used to be.

The European response to David Cameron’s immigration speech last week was pretty positive, but at some point between now and the formal renegotiation, someone was going to chuck a fly in the ointment. Last night Poland’s deputy foreign minister Rafal Trzaskowski told Newsnight that his country would have a ‘red line’ against Britain treating immigrants from the EU differently when it comes to benefits. He said: ‘If one wants to get away with all the benefits that are enshrined in the regulation of EU and treat immigrants from EU differently, and for example only pay benefits after four years of their stay in Britain or extradite people who can't find work, that would be against all the existing laws of the EU and obviously that would be a red line for us.

There is a simple political test for the autumn statement, does it make the economy Topic A again? The Tories’ election strategy relies on the economy being the dominant issue of the campaign. If it is not, it is very hard to see how Cameron and co can win.   The Tories want everything to be seen through the prism of the economy. Hence Osborne’s emphasis this morning that he can only put an extra £2 billion into the NHS because the economy is strong.   In recent months, immigration has supplanted the economy as voters’ top concern. This has been to Ukip—and not the Tories—benefit. This is why Cameron’s speech last Friday was designed to shut the issue down.

One of the aims of David Cameron’s big immigration speech was to settle the issue with his backbenchers before returning to talk about the economy. Based on conversations I’ve had this morning with the key movers and shakers in the eurosceptic wing of the Tory party, he hasn’t got very close to settling the issue at all. Indeed, I suspect that there will be trouble before long. Members of the hardcore of eurosceptics I describe in this week’s politics column are unhappy with what they think is a lack of ambition from the Prime Minister. They feel he’s been flirting with them a bit too much on this issue and has led them on to believe he would announce something much bigger than he then produced.

We still don't know when David Cameron's long-awaited 'game-changer' speech on immigration will be. Downing Street is only saying that it will be 'before Christmas', but it is still expected to be this week. Nick Clegg certainly thinks it is soon, as he's been putting his own thoughts about today, saying he'll support benefit curbs for migrants but not changes to freedom of movement. Some Tory MPs also think they should engage the Prime Minister in a spot of last minute lobbying, with varying levels of success. The Europhiles represented by European Mainstream have asked to meet David Cameron this week to put their views across but have been told that no-one is being allowed in to Downing Street from either side of the party.

Theresa May is getting some stick this morning because she has admitted the obvious: that immigration is never going to get below the 'tens of thousands' target that David Cameron stupidly agreed to in opposition. She can only control immigration from outside the EU which she has successfully reduced to its lowest levels for about 15 years. But she has been blown off course by immigration not by the Slavs but Western Europe - Italians, Portuguese, Spanish coming here to flee the sclerosis of their debt-addled high-regulation economies and partake in the job-creation miracle underway in Britain. National Insurance registration data indicates that the number of Polish immigrants plunged, while immigration from the EU-15 soared. (Some examples below).

David Cameron is set to give his big immigration speech this coming week, according to the Sunday Times, while James reports that Labour is to turn up the volume on the subject too. Both party leaderships are under pressure from their backbenches to take the Ukip threat seriously and give voters a clear sense that they would crack down on immigration. Both parties do need to deal with their legacies. Labour’s one has been much-picked-over and apologised for. But the Tories are also realising that they won’t have as much to boast about come the election as they’d hoped. That’s why Theresa May today finally moved from using weird words such as ‘comment’ to describe the Tory net migration target and accepted that the party just won’t meet it.