Eu referendum

If logistics had allowed, David Cameron would have given his long-awaited speech on Europe tomorrow. Instead, it’s been postponed until January and we had to make do with a statement on the European Council in the Commons today It’s quite clear that Cameron is thoroughly bored of these meetings: he complained that it was the seventh he’s attended this year and that he ‘wouldn’t describe it as a landmark council’. When Ed Miliband mocked the Eurozone countries for coming up with a timetable for having a timetable, Cameron chuckled and nodded. But Cameron does think that something big came out of this summit. As he put it, ‘the principle has been established that changes in the Eurozone, requires safeguards for those outside.

David Cameron took great pains in his statement to the Commons on the EU budget summit to emphasise the alliances that Britain had formed in trying to keep the budget down. He started by telling MPs that Britain had worked 'together with like-minded allies from a number of countries', and repeatedly used words such as 'together' and references to 'we - and others'. This was important as one of the key lines of attack that Labour has tried to make since last year's veto is that Britain is standing isolated in Europe. Labour struggled to make an impact, both in Miliband's response to Cameron's statement and during the ensuing debate.

As on many issues, Boris Johnson has made great efforts to position himself on the side of the Tory grassroots on key issues where the parliamentary leadership takes a different position, particularly when it comes to the European Union. The Mayor signed the People's Pledge for an In/Out EU referendum in March of this year, but this evening, he appears to have backtracked rather. This is his exchange with John Pienaar on 5Live from a few minutes ago: Pienaar: Would you still want an In/Out referendum? Johnson: Well, I've always said… I think we've been now, what is it?

Iain Duncan Smith was strangely vague this morning when Andrew Marr asked him whether he thought Britain could survive outside the European Union. He said: 'I'm an optimist about the UK. I've always been involved with our trade with our European partners which we will always be doing whatever this relationship is, and the Prime minister will talk about that in the future… We're a member of the European Union, that gives us benefits but we have to figure out where that's going. But in the world we are a global trader already, we're more of a global trader than any other country in Europe. So I hate this argument that says, you know little Britain outside, or… We can both be within our trading relationships within Europe, we can also be a fantastic global trader.

David Cameron is determined to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership. But to get a good deal and to show his own eurosceptics  - let alone UKIP voters  - that he’s serious about this, he is going to have to be prepared to say that he would be prepared to leave if the rest of the European Union doesn’t play ball. (This poker game is why the other northern European countries that Cameron is relying on to help him secure a better deal have been quick to suggest that they wouldn’t mind Britain leaving that much.) Cameron, though, is highly reluctant to do this. Not only does he think EU membership does provide genuine benefits to Britain but he also worries about how business would react to any threat of withdrawal.

Sometime in the next nine weeks David Cameron will announce that if re-elected, he would seek to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership and then put the results to the public. I understand that the current plan is to have a referendum offering a choice between the new terms and out. Cameron believes that with time, he can secure far more satisfactory terms of membership for Britain. He also reasons that this announcement — the formalisation of the new terms, fresh consent that he talked about again at PMQs — will reassure his own eurosceptics. Conservative strategists also hope that this should stem the tide in support for UKIP before the 2014 European elections.

The Prime Minister and Angela Merkel spoke last night on the phone to discuss the European Council meeting later this week. Downing Street said the pair 'agreed that further work is needed before agreement can be reached' on banking union, which is a coded acknowledgement that David Cameron is concerned the current proposals are not in Britain's interest and do not currently protect the single market and that he will push for greater compromise when leaders meet. This is all part of the Prime Minister's big Europe week. He has a Cabinet meeting this morning, and as its members are increasingly piling pressure on Cameron for a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, the topic may well come up.

It's David Cameron's birthday today, but when James Naughtie suggested on the Today programme that Boris Johnson be sent to a remote country as ambassador, the Prime Minister sounded as though Christmas had come early, too. You could almost hear Cameron's mind whirring as he considered which country might deserve the Mayor of London. As well as answering questions on the man who last night continued his pitch to become the next Tory leader, Cameron was asked where he was taking his party currently.

Rumours are swirling at this Labour conference that the party leadership is considering offering a referendum on Britain's relationship with the European Union. If the party did do as Jon Cruddas hinted it should over the weekend in the Telegraph, we at least know how Douglas Alexander would campaign. The shadow foreign secretary told an Open Europe fringe last night that staying in would be in Britain's interest: ‘We are struggling to sense any growth as it is, and shrinking our market from 500 million to 60 million would not to help. We should be working in the nation’s interest to return to growth.’ Alexander also made clear his regret over the way British politicians have handled Europe.

Three months after it was sent, the Prime Minister has replied to a letter signed by over 100 backbench Conservative MPs calling for legislation in this parliament for an EU referendum in the next. John Baron, who co-ordinated the letter, is not releasing David Cameron's response as the original message was private, too. But I've managed to get my hands on a copy from elsewhere, and here are some of the key points Cameron makes: 'As we discussed, I do believe it would be wrong to rule out any type of referendum for the future. However, I am concerned that making a legal commitment now to hold a referendum in the next Parliament without setting the exact referendum question would not be a workable, nor a sustainable, position.

One of the areas Conservatives and Lib Dems are more than happy to distinguish themselves on is Europe, although the issue always gets far less attention at Lib Dem conference than it does at Conservative gatherings. A Conservative might find this odd: surely a party so wholeheartedly in favour of Britain remaining within the European Union would want to make the case for why Europe is so wonderful. Instead, senior figures today attacked Conservatives who want Britain to leave the European Union as 'potty'. In a fringe this lunchtime, Lord Oakeshott told the audience that a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU was not necessary as the electorate could express its view through the ballot box at general elections.

Nigel Farage’s very public willingness to explore a UKIP-Tory electoral pact in exchange for a pledge from David Cameron to hold a referendum on EU membership is, I suspect, designed to achieve two things. First, it is meant to flush out Cameron. If Cameron declines the offer, Farage will be able to claim that only UKIP are the only party to vote for if you want an In/Out choice on the UK’s EU membership. It’ll undercut the Tory offer of a renegotiation referendum. Second, by floating the offer he makes it more likely that individual Tory MPs and candidates might sign up to the offer themselves, pledging to back an In Out referendum in exchange for no UKIP challenge.

As previewed on Coffee House last week, John Baron today launched his all-party group calling for an EU referendum. He has so far managed to bring more than 50 MPs on board, along with a good number of Labour MPs. DUP MPs will also attend. The first meeting will be on 16 October. Yesterday José Manuel Barroso gave momentum to the group's calls for a vote on Britain's membership of the EU by pushing for greater political union. He said: A deep and genuine economic and monetary union, a political union, with a coherent foreign and defence policy, means ultimately that the present European Union must evolve. Let’s not be afraid of the words: we will need to move towards a federation of nation states. This is what we need. This is our political horizon.

One issue that the reshuffle makes no difference to at all is the Conservative party's Europe problem. If the Prime Minister managed to forget about the pressure from his own party for an EU referendum over the summer, he's about to be reminded of it. In late June, Tory MP John Baron handed a letter to David Cameron signed by over 100 of his backbench colleagues calling for the government to introduce legislation now for a referendum on European Union membership in the next parliament. He has still not received a response, even though the Prime Minister said he would write back. Last week, Baron pestered Cameron's office, and this week, he has tabled a parliamentary question which must receive a response within five days.

As he relaxes on a Majorcan beach, David Cameron might find his mind wandering to his plans for next month's reshuffle. The latest demand from 'influential figures' is, according to Tim Shipman in the Daily Mail, that he replace Europe Minister David Lidington with a more Eurosceptic minister. Supporting those influential figures from the sidelines is a hefty group of Conservative backbenchers who want to see a bit more welly on the European issue. Some of the names mooted by the Mail - Graham Brady and Mark Francois - would certainly do that but they are no friends of the current leadership. Shipman's story does not say whether Cameron will actually listen to those pushing him, but moving Lidington would be popular.