Conservative party

Tory conference is yawning on with neither furious fights nor much evidence that anyone knows how to fix the party's problems. The most energetic bit of it so far has been Theresa May's round of media interviews this morning, in which the Prime Minister appeared to have been turned on to 1.5x speed as she nervously gabbled her answers and tried to sound happy. Other spots of colour come from non-MPs, such as Ruth Davidson. The hall isn't packed, the atmosphere flat, and members and MPs look bewildered and miserable. The Tories are starting to resemble Labour at the end of its last spell in government. The party was exhausted.

Of all the difficulties Theresa May faces, the importance of denying the truth may be the most acute. There are certain things a prime minister cannot say; certain fabrications that must be insisted upon because political expedience cannot withstand too much daylight. Mrs May, then, must pretend her position is secure and that, contrary to the expectations of her party and the country, that she will lead the Conservative party at the next general election, whenever that may be. If this makes her seem modestly ridiculous then so be it; the alternatives are even worse. Even so, some fictions would be better abandoned. Last week the prime minister was asked if the Conservative party needed to revisit the ‘modernising’ agenda that, in part, Mrs May was once a part of.

Earlier this week Nick Timothy and Tim Montgomerie had a short spat on Twitter about the reasons for the Conservative party's failure to win a majority in June's general election. Nick Timothy tweeted that: ‘We had a small majority and a divided cabinet, party and country’ https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/912615649322717184 When other things are equal, people are generally less likely to vote for parties that are seen as divided. If the Conservatives had been seen as divided in the run-up to the election, that might have hampered their chances of doing well. In fact, the Conservatives were seen as one of the most united parties. Whatever the reasons for the party's failure to win seats, perceptions of division cannot be one of them.

Even Damian Green seems to find it odd that he’s the second most important person in the government. When asked, the First Secretary of State plays down his influence — in fact, he plays down most things. When David Cameron wanted the Tories’ immigration policies out of the spotlight, he put Green in charge of them. And when Theresa May wanted someone she could trust to be her deputy after the disastrous general election, she chose one of the few people in the cabinet whom she can call a friend. The pair have known each other since Oxford, and now talk face-to-face every day. When we meet in his magisterial cabinet office headquarters, he talks about her with enthusiasm.

On this week's Spectator Podcast we look at the final Brexit war amongst the Conservatives. We also discuss the maverick politician taking Ukraine by storm, and get on the blower with Blowers. First up, with a 4,000 word intervention by Boris Johnson doing the rounds this week, ahead of Theresa May's pivotal Brexit speech in Florence, the Conservatives look more divided than ever on the European question. Will it be EEA minus or CETA plus? Or are we headed for an even more mongrel departure? These are the questions James Forsyth asks in this week's cover piece, and he joins the podcast along with Henry Newman, director of Open Europe. As James writes: "The time for choosing is fast approaching for Theresa May.

Trouble in paradise? After the DUP voted with the government last night to ensure they won a crucial vote that gives the Tories a majority on key committees which scrutinise legislation, today the Conservatives got a taste of what it's like to really be in the minority. In the opposition day debate on NHS pay, the DUP boldly backed a Labour motion demanding the Government give public health workers a 'fair pay rise'. The Tories, aware that they didn't have the numbers to win this vote, abstained. While it's slightly embarrassing for the government to lose a vote, the motion was not binding – and it did not breach the £1bn Tory-DUP deal.

Nearly all Tory MPs now agree Theresa May should stay on as Prime Minister. She must get the party through Brexit, they say. A leadership contest now would risk splitting the party over the European issue. One senior Tory who was agitating to depose May back in July has told me that he has now decided it would be best if she stays until 2019. But this desire to keep her in place for Brexit should not be confused (especially not by Mrs May) with a desire to see her fight the next election. The number of Tories prepared to even contemplate following her into another battle remains vanishingly small. Memories of her performance in the general election are far too vivid, and painful, for that. So if Brexit is her main job, how is it going?

If Theresa May is in it for the 'long term', does this mean that she plans to do big things with her premiership? The Prime Minister promised a great deal when she stood on the steps of Downing Street over a year ago, but has so far delivered a snap election which messed up her chances of actually achieving what she promised. She now has to rely on a party which doesn't share all of her values - the DUP - or the good will of Labour MPs who happen to support what she wants to do. But this is all about May's weakness in the House of Commons Chamber. She can still make as many changes as she wants to policies using secondary legislation.

Theresa May's announcement that she plans to serve as Prime Minister for 'the long term' has come as rather a surprise to her party. Cabinet ministers and senior backbenchers had hoped that all the talk of her sell-by-date and a leadership contest would have faded in time for the autumn, but this has stirred it up again. There are two schools of thought in the party as to whether the Prime Minister went into her interview yesterday intending to give a stronger line on whether or not she was going to leave. By and large those who are most unimpressed by the way she has led up to this point think that it was a deliberate move to show authority. Even those who think she was bounced into it believe that the Prime Minister was trying to quash speculation about having a precise leaving date.