Brexit

Thursday

James Forsyth

May’s toxic legacy

At David Cameron’s final Prime Minister’s Questions, a Labour MP asked him how his plan to get the Tories to ‘stop banging on about Europe’ was going. The chamber erupted in laughter and Cameron gave a rather sheepish response. Afterwards, one of those who had prepared Cameron for PMQs wondered whether he should have given a more robust answer. Surely, he argued, the party would stop banging on about Europe now that the referendum had settled the question. How naive that seems in retrospect. It is now becoming clear that the referendum only succeeded in ushering in the most bitter battle in the Tories’ 40-year civil war over Europe.

Martin Howe

May’s deal: a legal verdict

The most important point about the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement is that, once it is ratified, the United Kingdom will have no legal route out of it unless the EU agrees to let us out and replace it with another agreement. This makes it unique among trade treaties (including the EU’s), which always contain clauses allowing each party to withdraw on notice. Politicians who claim that this is just a bad treaty — one we can get out of later — are being ignorant or disingenuous. Halfway through the 585-page document, we find Art. 185, which states a Northern Ireland Protocol ‘shall apply as from the end of the transition period’. Once the Protocol is in force, the UK cannot leave it except by ‘joint’ decision of the UK and the EU.

Rod Liddle

Haters gonna hate hate

If we are to ban states of mind, my vote would be for self-righteousness first, followed by sententiousness, with maybe imbecility as third choice. That would criminalise most of the people in the country I cannot abide, including all of the Lib Dems, Momentum and Justine Greening. Sadly, the state of mind which the government wishes to ban is that rather more useful quality, hate. You are not allowed to hate anything any more, except for hate itself. But at least in hating hate you can really let yourself go, even if it is usually a wholly imaginary hate that you are hating. You can spew out your bile suffused with self--righteousness, sententiousness and imbecility. You can have yourself an anti-hate hate fest, safe in the knowledge that your hatred of hate is commendable.

Robert Tombs

The nation’s state

Did any of us, whatever our opinions, expect the level of blustering indignation that has emerged since the 2016 referendum? It seems to be reaching ever new heights — or depths — of invective and reciprocal disdain. On one side, ‘fantasists, crackpots, dunderheads… jabbering braggarts’ (as a Telegraph columnist described Leave MPs last week). On the other, a gaggle of ‘enemies of the people’, cowards and time-servers. Not so long ago, the sophisticated laughed that only a few eccentrics ‘banged on’ about Europe. Now we seem to have become a nation of head-bangers. As social media spreads extreme and insulting language far and wide, it is easy to think that we are in the midst of an unprecedented cultural war.

Liam Halligan

Irish troubles

How did we get into this Brexit mess? Why is it proving so difficult to leave the EU? Was it Theresa May’s botched 2017 election, which vaporised her Commons majority? Or perhaps her general incompetence and lack of vision? How about the fierce determination of Europhile civil servants to save stupid Leave voters from themselves, cooking up a half-in-half-out withdrawal guaranteed to split the Tories? Maybe it was the cynical ambivalence of HM’s Opposition, with Labour simultaneously backing both Brexit and a second referendum, having always intended to cause chaos and spark a general election by voting down the UK’s exit, contradicting its own manifesto?

Wednesday

Johannes de Jong

Technology won’t solve the Irish border question. Here’s why

Amongst some Brexiteers, there is an eternal faith in technology to solve the Irish border question. This is mistaken. Yet still the idea refuses to go away. Now Theresa May is using this belief to try and get wavering Tory MPs to back her Brexit deal with Brussels. Yesterday, the Prime Minister’s spokesman said the solution for the question of the Irish border 'could involve technological solutions'. He went on to say: 'I think there was discussion in cabinet about the fact that the withdrawal agreement recognises and keeps open the potential for alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.' No 10 is implying that if the UK would put this idea on the table then the EU would be obliged to accept it and allow the UK to escape the backstop.

Bernard Connolly

Where were the Brexit no deal warnings during the Scottish independence debate?

Four years ago, 45 per cent of Scottish voters favoured leaving the UK. Many of the warnings about the negative impact of independence on the Scottish economy were justified. But they did not extinguish a yearning for independence – and the same could be said of the EU referendum, with the caveat that this time a majority voted to leave, and many of the warnings were unjustified. An ineradicable desire to get our country back triumphed over the Project Fear campaign conducted by the Treasury and the whole of the nomenklatura that sought to preserve position, power and privilege for itself and to suppress any notion that ordinary people, in Britain or in any other European country, could have a say in how they are governed.

Alex Massie

Jeremy Corbyn is as deluded about Brexit as Jacob Rees-Mogg | 21 November 2018

Now that the coup of the plastic spoons appears to have failed – Jacob Rees-Mogg and his accomplices could not even synchronise their pocket-watches – Theresa May finds herself back where she has been all along: strengthened by her weakness. This is a remarkable situation for any prime minister but not, for May, an unprecedented one.  It helps that her enemies are so utterly incompetent. The sallow men of the European Research Group are not only not a government in waiting but not a collection of kingmakers either. Just as Voltaire quipped that the Holy Roman Empire was in fact none of these things, so we may say something similar about the ERG.  But, in fairness to the Moggists, they are not the only group suffering from delusions of influence.

Lloyd Evans

PMQs: May unveils her Brexit consolation prizes

Amber Rudd, a washed-up ex-minister last week, is the de facto Brexit secretary today. She revealed her loyalties this morning when she told an interviewer that parliament wouldn’t approve a no-deal agreement. And with no deal off the table, Brussels can dictate terms. Congrats Amber. The Légion d'honneur is on its way. And a peerage too, in all probability, given that Nick Clegg was knighted for opposing Brexit. Remainer Rudd’s bombshell was raised by Jeremy Corbyn at the start of PMQs. He asked Mrs May to state whether no deal is still an option. ‘I have consistently made clear,’ began the PM, before continuing in deliberately cryptic terms.

Charles Moore

When the BBC’s ‘Reality Check’ reporter met his match

The BBC’s ‘Reality Check’ device is a piece of hubris, which this week met its nemesis. It effectively says: ‘We report untrustworthy politicians who disagree with one another. You, the stupid viewer/listener, obviously cannot be expected to work out where the truth lies. Our expert correspondents will tell you.’ The main man who does this on Brexit is called Chris Morris. His version of ‘reality’ is strongly pro-Remain. If you read his online summary of the withdrawal agreement, for example, he says that ‘the Brexit process has caused an enormous amount of anxiety and uncertainty’ in relation to immigration. That is a defensible proposition, but one depending on a point of view.

James Forsyth

Theresa May fails to calm her Brexit critics at PMQs

Jeremy Corbyn is not a forensic Commons performer. He is uncomfortable adjusting his questions to take into account Theresa May’s responses. This limits his ability to pin May down. Today, he asked a question on a customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea. May emphasised that there wouldn’t be a customs border there. But Corbyn didn’t then pursue what kind of regulatory border there would be. The result was that May sustained no damage during their exchanges.  Once again, the lack of support in the chamber for May’s deal was striking. There were a couple of supportive questions from the Tory benches, but more hostile ones. The most difficult question of the session came from George Freeman, May’s former policy chief.

Katy Balls

Did Amber Rudd’s Today interview actually help No. 10?

In her first interview since returning to the cabinet, Amber Rudd has set the cat among the pigeons. Speaking on the Today programme this morning, the new Work and Pensions Secretary appeared to go off script as she talked about the prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit. The former Remain campaigner said that Parliament 'will stop No Deal' if the deal is voted down as there 'isn’t a majority in the House of Commons to allow that to take place'. 'I don't think we are looking at another referendum. I think what will happen is that people will take a careful look over the abyss and despite what people say the EU withdrawal agreement will get through.' On the surface at least, it doesn't appear to be a particularly helpful intervention.

Nick Cohen

How the ‘people’s vote’ campaign gained momentum

A year ago, campaigners for a ‘people’s vote’ seemed an eccentric bunch of no hopers and bad losers. Mocked as ‘remoaners’, their arguments barely covered by the media, history had left them behind. As the leave campaigns’ central claim that we could have the benefits of EU membership while leaving the EU is revealed for the absurdity it always was, the ‘people’s vote’ has gathered mass support and moved from the fringes to the mainstream with heartening speed. One mark of the campaign’s success is that even its critics acknowledge that a ‘peoples vote’ is a viable solution to the constitutional, economic and diplomatic crisis that engulfs us.

Tuesday

Matthew Lynn

Has Mark Carney just ended the campaign for a ‘People’s Vote’? | 20 November 2018

The headlines will inevitably write themselves. The Bank of England backs Theresa May. The Prime Minister's beleaguered and precarious deal is the best of all the options available and the economy may well get through the next few months largely unscathed. Following the testimony this morning from the Bank’s governor Mark Carney, most people will pick up on the support he has given to the Prime Minister and his reassurance that the economy will survive our departure. And yet there were two more significant points that emerged from his testimony. The Bank is finally willing to concede that leaving without a deal wouldn’t be so bad after all. And just at the moment when not leaving at all has become a real possibility, the Bank has given up on it.

Steerpike

Watch: Jacob Rees-Mogg rebukes reporter over Brexit ‘coup’

The Brexit bunch's bid to oust Theresa May has fallen rather flat, at least for the time being. Having failed to muster enough letters to force a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister, the European Research Group now appears to be desperately backtracking. Jacob Rees-Mogg, who enjoyed the limelight at an impromptu press conference outside Parliament last week when a vote appeared to be imminent, seemed somewhat more shy this morning when he was asked about the attempt to bring down the PM – rebuking a reporter for calling it a 'coup': 'Coup is entirely the wrong word. Indeed it is a rather silly word. This overegged language is rather damaging to political debate.

Robert Jackman

Brexit Britain needs 21st century borders

Whatever form Brexit might take, the Government has been clear about its intentions to take the country global: the Prime Minister has promised that post-Brexit Britain will be an outward-looking country, trading and engaging with countries from across the world. But if Britain is to copy with the increase in trade and visitors (both of which are expected to double within the next thirty years), it will be necessary to revisit and revitalise the country’s border and customs infrastructure. The Home Office’s failure to meet its existing targets for clearing visitors (within 25 minutes for EEA passports, and 45 minutes for non-EEA visitors have been well-publicised) – how can the UK cope with higher traffic?

Monday

Freddie Sayers

Theresa May’s deal would win a second referendum. Here’s why

One important piece of information missing during these dramatic Brexit manoeuvres is what the voters actually want. Rory Stewart, one of the only ministers doing a decent job of selling the Prime Minister’s plan, speculated that ‘80 per cent of the British public support this deal’ and was promptly forced to apologise. Meanwhile opponents of the deal point to polls taken since the details were revealed suggesting that as few as 19 per cent of the public support it. So what is the truth? I think Theresa May’s deal is fundamentally much more in line with public opinion than polls suggest and that it will become more evidently so over time. It would win a two-part referendum hands-down. Here’s why.

Johannes de Jong

Why Theresa May’s Brexit deal is bad news for Europeans

Theresa May's current Brexit deal will tie the UK more closely to Brussels than if it had stayed in the EU. The agreement, which is supposed to take back control and restore British sovereignty, will actually have the opposite effect. This is bad news for Britain – and bad news, too, for Europeans like myself who are desperate to see the EU reformed for the better. Jo Johnson was right to claim, when he resigned as a minister, that the choice now facing the UK is between ‘vassalage’ and ‘chaos’. On both sides of the debate, among Brexit supporters and those who want Britain to remain in the EU, the fact that Britain will have to adopt EU legislation on a wide range of issues for an undefined period has sunk in.

Isabel Hardman

No-confidence threat against May recedes – for a few days

Is Theresa May about to face a vote of no confidence in her leadership? The Prime Minister is acting as though nothing has changed, to coin a phrase, focusing on selling her Brexit plan to business leaders at the CBI, rather than getting too bogged down with the internal problems with her party. But those trying to organise the move against her had been making noises all day that they may have the requisite number of letters calling for such a vote by this evening. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case. Indeed, today a number of Brexiteers including Owen Paterson and Iain Duncan Smith have been holding talks in Number 10 along with David Trimble about a proposed solution to the Brexit deal that might prevent a leadership contest.