Brexit

Theresa May is back in the Commons this afternoon updating MPs on her Brexit deal. She’s in the middle of a frenzy of campaigning that makes her efforts during the referendum itself look quite lacklustre (admittedly not hard, given how little effort the then Home Secretary put into that campaign), with phone-ins, newspaper interviews and a bid for a live TV debate on Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn. Tomorrow, May is also going to tour the UK to sell her deal to the public. The Prime Minister’s strategy is to talk over the heads of her warring party and straight to the public, in the hope that at least some of

Theresa May’s deal has been approved by the EU27 but now the difficult part begins. No.10 must work out a way to get the EU withdrawal agreement through the Commons. Given that the number of Tory MPs who have said they won’t support it is past the 80 mark (see the full list here), that looks no easy task. A vote is mooted for Tuesday 11th December. So, given that Plan A looks rather optimistic, what are the alternatives? No-one – not even those at No.10 – are entirely certain what would happen if the deal is voted down. However, here are the main scenarios to expect come the vote:

Because Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been so long in the coming – almost two and a half years – and has been so comprehensively trailed and leaked, yesterday’s formal ratification of the terms of our departure from the EU and the shape of our possible future relationship with the EU feels like the mother of all anti-climaxes. But cynicism and lethargy are to be resisted: that ratification really matters. Because because – at last we have THE DEAL. Until yesterday, everything about Brexit was presumption, speculation, rumour and hypothesis. Finally we know what Brexit means to a Prime Minister who had no other job but to find out what

While it might have garnered less attention than the political drama around the withdrawal agreement, next week’s European Court of Justice decision on whether the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 – that is, cancel Brexit – could have serious ramifications. A bit of background on the case: in November 2017, a group of Scottish MPs, MEPs and MSPs – working with the anti-Brexit barrister Jolyon Maugham QC – asked the Scottish Advocate General to clarify whether the UK government had the right to revoke Article 50 if it wanted to. Ignoring the objections of the government – which insisted that, since Brexit was going ahead, there was no need

The most contentious part of Theresa May’s Brexit deal are the Northern Ireland specific provisions of the backstop. These would see various EU rules and regulations apply in Northern Ireland even after the UK has left the EU. If they came into force, they would create—in some areas—a kind of regulatory border in the Irish Sea. But, as I say in The Sun this morning, these provisions might be illegal under European Human Rights law. A case in 1999 brought against the UK government, the Matthews case, at the European Court of Human Rights established that people have a right to vote in elections to the parliaments that set their

Article 129 (3) of the withdrawal agreement provides that ‘the United Kingdom shall refrain, during the transition period, from any action or initiative which is likely to be prejudicial to the Union’s interests, in particular in the framework of any international organisation, agency, conference or forum of which the United Kingdom is a party in its own right.’ What does that mean? That we are not free at the UN Security Council to oppose any item of EU foreign policy? That we cannot cut our rate of VAT? That we must not make jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker? Needless to say, there is no reciprocal obligation on the EU to do

Diane Abbott has a stark warning for those clamouring for a second referendum: be careful what you wish for. The Labour MP’s warning won’t go down well with those from the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign, who desperately need the support of the Labour party if their wish is to come true. On Nick Robinson’s podcast, Abbott was asked what would happen if another vote took place. Here’s what she said: ‘My view is that if we had a second referendum tomorrow, Leave would win again. And not only would Leave win again, but Leave voters would say: what didn’t you understand about Leave the first time?’ Mr S thinks Abbott is

Theresa May is back on the radio flogging her Brexit deal to a sceptical public. Unsurprisingly, few of those who phoned in to BBC 5 Live seemed impressed by what the Prime Minister had to offer. One listener asked the PM to tell him, without any ‘political waffle’, whether her deal is better than staying in the EU. But May’s bid to do just that didn’t exactly work out to plan. At the end of May’s minute-long answer, the host Emma Barnett asked for the caller’s verdict: EB: ‘Michael, did the PM answer your question?’ Caller: ‘No’ Emma Barnett ended the interview by asking May how she and Philip would

After resigning as Brexit Secretary over Theresa May’s proposed deal, Dominic Raab has restyled himself as one of the more loyal of the Brexiteer rebels. He used an appearance on the Andrew Marr show over the weekend to say that although he would note vote for the deal as it currently stands, he still backed Theresa May as Prime Minister and would vote for her in any confidence vote. This morning he is upped the ante, however, with an interview on the Today programme. Discussing both the withdrawal agreement and the future framework (which was set out on Thursday), Raab was frank in his assessment. The Tory Brexiteer said he