Brexit

Taking the temperature in Westminster today, it appears that Theresa May doesn’t have much more of a chance of winning the meaningful vote than she did when she pulled it before Christmas. The mood has improved a bit for her deal, but by nowhere near enough for her to pass it. Indeed, interestingly the full bore Brexiteers appear to be embracing ‘no deal’ more firmly than before. Boris Johnson’s Daily Telegraph column today is striking for the willingness with which it embraces no deal, rather than just arguing for a pivot to Canada. I understand that the Government expects the EU’s pre-vote help to come towards the end of this week.

As MPs prepare to return to Westminster following the Christmas recess, the Prime Minister has given her first TV interview of the new year. With the deadline for Brexit fast approaching, Theresa May again put the case for her Brexit deal, on which she postponed a crucial Commons vote in December. Andrew Marr asked her if this time, the vote would definitely be going ahead: TM: Yes we are going to hold the vote... The debate will start next week and it will carry on until the following week, but we will be holding the vote. AM: We’re talking about the 15th or 14th? TM: That sort of timing, yes. However, when Marr asked if she would invite the Commons to vote for her deal again if it was rejected first time round, May was non-committal.

The Prime Minister does have a strategy to prevent what she sees as the chaos of a no-deal Brexit. The flaw in it is that the strategy probably has a shelf life of just over one week. Because her strategy is to persuade MPs to back her version of leaving the EU in a vote on 15 or 16 January, and in the words of one of her senior ministers: “I will be shot for telling you this but we are going to lose that vote”. So what then? Well, amazingly, no one around her – not her ministers, not her officials – seem to know. Why not? “She won’t tell us” says a minister. “We go to see her. We give her our ideas about what to do next. She listens politely. She even asks questions. But none of us have a clue whether she agrees, whether she is persuaded.

Jeremy Corbyn has a message for the people of Milton Keynes: I condemn you. The Labour leader delivered his criticism at an event in 2011 after voters in the town booted out pro-Palestinian Labour MP Phyllis Starkey. He told the audience: ‘I condemn the people of Milton Keynes for the mistakes that they made in the May election but they will have a chance for (sic) correct their mistakes hopefully in the very near future.’ https://twitter.com/TheGolem_/status/1080886732701253633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Unfortunately at the two general elections since Corbyn made his comments, the people of Milton Keynes failed to learn their lesson by twice electing two Tory MPs.

Jeremy Corbyn has come under pressure this week to back a second referendum after a YouGov poll found that seven in ten Labour members wish for it to be party policy. So far, Corbyn has resisted such calls for a so-called People's Vote. In this week's Spectator, I explain why the Labour leader is reluctant to go near one – at least for the time being. With the Tories in turmoil over Brexit, it’s quite possible — some cabinet members believe probable — that the government may soon collapse with a new general election called. This is Labour's great hope – and Corbyn hopes to trigger a snap poll by defeating the government in a confidence motion after the meaningful vote.

Westminster conversation about Brexit often suffers a time lag. MPs frequently speak with surprise about things that actually happened months ago and which are regarded as old, established facts in Brussels and policy wonk-world. The backstop is the best example: outlined in the December 2017 Joint Report of the UK and EU negotiators, its meaning and necessity still came as a novelty to some MPs – resigning cabinet ministers included – in June; and to others in November. (The 2017 election result is another instance: it took many Tory MPs at least a year to realise it meant there could be no Commons majority for the hardest form of Brexit; some still haven’t worked that out.

We’re closing 2018 by republishing our ten most-read articles of the year. Here’s No. 2: Steerpike on the many problems with May's Brexit deal: Theresa May's government has teetered on the point of collapse over her proposed Brexit deal. The withdrawal agreement between the UK and Brussels led to Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resigning in protest. However, May's remaining ministers have since attempted to rally around her at least in the short term. Speaking on Friday, Liam Fox – the International Trade Secretary – gave a speech in which he declared 'a deal is better than no deal'. This is rather different to May's old claim that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'. So, is Fox right? Mr S thought it best to let readers decide for themselves.

Why us? Why is the UK the first – and only – country to decide to leave the EU? Greenland, Algeria (when it was part of the French empire) and the French Caribbean island of St Barthélemy have all been in the EU and are no more, but the UK is the first full member country to hold a referendum and decide ‘enough’. Why us, and not one of the many other members nursing doubts about the EU? There are many reasons, none of which are to do with us being more inward looking or racist. We are an island, but arguably the most outward looking EU nation. We do have issues with racism, but various studies have concluded we are among the least racist countries in Europe.

A rather sinister tweet was sent out yesterday by the Home Office telling EU nationals that if they wanted to stay in Britain they’d best “apply” – not register – for the scheme if they "want to stay in the UK" after 31 December 2020. The tone was quite disgusting. And it raises the question as to whether, with the Home Secretary on holiday, his officials are about to launch into a “hostile environment” scheme in direct contradiction to his personal approach and UK government policy. Language matters. The phrase “hostile environment” summed up the horror of Home Office autopilot: a computer-says-no approach to immigration, with effects on human lives that will forever be a stain on the reputation of Tory government.