Brexit

Friday

Robert Peston

Theresa May now faces a humiliating choice over Brexit

From our UK edition

Here is the measure of Theresa May’s failure last night, according to an observer of her request to EU leaders for “assurances” that UK membership of the EU backstop would be finite and of short duration. They were ready to help. They assumed a process of officials agreeing a text over coming week would start today, to give her the necessary words that would persuade Tory and DUP critics of her deal to ultimately support it. But it was during the course of questioning her that they concluded such a process – such an extension of talks – would be a total waste of time. Why? Well according to one observer of the conversation between May and the EU27 leaders, “she could not say what would actually deliver a majority in parliament for her”.

Matthew Lynn

The myth of the Brexit cliff edge

From our UK edition

The ports will be clogged up with lorries. The shelves at Tesco will be empty. Doctors will be rationing antibiotics, and the army will be called out to deliver food. As we approach the deadline for our departure from the European Union, as the Prime Minister returns empty handed yet again from yet another catastrophic round of negotiations in Brussels, and as the cliff-edge gets closer and closer, the conventional wisdom is that the pressure on Britain to agree to something – anything! – becomes more and more intense. And yet, as so often in the through-the-looking glass world of Brexit, that conventional wisdom is a bit off target. And not just by a little as it happens, but by 180 degrees.

Robert Peston

Theresa May’s catastrophic night in Brussels

From our UK edition

It has been a catastrophic night for the Prime Minister here in Brussels. She was rebuffed by EU leaders in her request for a few weeks of fresh work by officials to formulate words of what she called “reassurance”, such that Tory Brexiter and DUP MPs could be confident that the backstop they hate would only ever be short lived if implemented. “We do not want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation whatsoever” said EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. This means that the PM knows that, as and when she puts her Brexit plan to the Commons for a vote, more than 100 of her MPs will vote against it, plus the DUP and the opposition parties. She would lose by a colossal and humiliating margin of more than 200 votes.

Thursday

The Spectator

Barometer | 13 December 2018

From our UK edition

Crisis at Christmas MPs were warned that they might have to give up part of their holidays to deal with Brexit. Here are some other political crises from Christmases past: 1066 William I was crowned on 25 December. Trouble was expected from the English so the streets of Westminster were lined two deep with soldiers. The service was interrupted by a boisterous crowd and houses near the abbey were set alight. 1974 Embarrassment for Harold Wilson on Christmas Eve — his former postmaster general John Stonehouse turned up in Australia, having faked his own death. 1989 Deposed Romanian president Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena had their festive season curtailed by a brief trial, after which they were shot.

The Spectator

Portrait of the year | 13 December 2018

From our UK edition

January Four young men were stabbed to death in London as the New Year began. The Crown Prosecution Service was to review rape cases, after several prosecutions collapsed when evidence was not disclosed to the defence. Carillion went into liquidation. London Zoo delayed its annual stock take after a fire killed an aardvark called Misha. Turkish forces shelled the Kurdish enclave of Afrin. The supreme court of Iceland upheld an import tariff on potato chips of 76 per cent. The Grand Mufti of Egypt said that bitcoin was forbidden by Islam. California legalised recreational cannabis. February The Charity Commission launched an inquiry into Oxfam staff paying for prostitutes in Haiti in 2011.

Boris Johnson

Diary – 13 December 2018

From our UK edition

The nice French doctor looked beadily at the screen. There were the results of my tests, in irrefutable detail. They had taken my blood; they had beeped in my ears; they had covered me in painful hair-pulling electrodes, and now there was no use bluffing. I tried to draw her attention to what I conceived was my Hulk-like strength, the blast furnace super bellows of my lung capacity. She wasn’t having any of it. There was the key piece of data — blinking like a Geiger counter. I have really known it, or suspected it, for decades. In the past few months I have had the joy of being back on my bike, and the reality of my physique has been obvious to all the people who have overtaken me; and when I say all, I mean all.

Robert Peston

Theresa May’s Brexit aim is no longer Mission Impossible

From our UK edition

Politics is all about words, which only sometimes mean what they seem to say. So if you took what the DUP leader in Westminster said on my show last night you would think that just maybe there is a route through the current parliamentary chaos for the PM towards a Brexit deal that MPs could approve. The DUP’s Nigel Dodds told me: “Well I think that the Prime Minister if I may say so maybe is extending a bit of an olive branch to us in the sense that she is now sitting down with us, acknowledging that we have an issue, acknowledging that it’s not just an issue we have but many in her party are now saying that she’s listening and she’s now prepared to go out she says to get those legal changes that are necessary.

John Osullivan

Theresa May has won but at the price of boxing herself in

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s victory in the 1922 committee confidence vote is one of those boxing matches that leaves both sides preparing for an early rematch—with the challengers somewhat more eager for one than the champion. The defeated Noes got 37 per cent of the vote, according to the numerate Tim Stanley, of an electorate that provided a 100 per cent turnout of Tory MPs. That’s seventeen votes short of a two-thirds majority for the Prime Minister compared to John Major’s achievement of getting four votes more than that traditionally decisive margin in 1995. Her critics got about the same percentage of the non-payroll vote.

Matthew Parris

Never trust the people

From our UK edition

It was late, and a friend and I were left to talk Brexit. He’s a keen and convinced Tory Brexiteer MP but to stay friends we have tended to steer off the topic. This, however, felt like a moment to talk. The conversation taught me nothing about Brexit, something about him, and a lot about myself and the strain of Conservatism I now realise I’m part of — and which is part of me. Oddly, then, this column is not really about Brexit, but about trusting the people. I don’t. Never have and never will. Our conversation forced me to confront the fact. My friend knows well enough why I’m a Remainer, but guessed correctly that I’ve puzzled about why he isn’t. I had not quite expected what I heard.

Mary Wakefield

The imitation game

From our UK edition

Imagine looking at a photo of a stranger and feeling in response, quite naturally, the sort of happy affection you might feel towards a spouse. Well, it’s weird. In July this year, when Benedict Cumberbatch was filming Channel 4’s upcoming Brexit film (Brexit: The Uncivil War) a friend sent me some photos by text message, tabloid snaps from the set. Benedict plays my husband Dominic Cummings, director of the Leave campaign, and the shots were long-lens and hazy: Ben/Dom pushing his son on a swing; Ben/Dom kissing his wife. The real son-of-Dom and I were halfway through our Rice Krispies when the photos came through and I remember how taken aback I was. It’s not that they look alike. ‘We have different shaped heads,’ Cumberbatch tells me later.

William Boyd

Writer’s Notebook

From our UK edition

Just back from a few days in Rome — the perfect small metropolis for ‘street-haunting’, as Cyril Connolly described his love of strolling through cities. I first went to Rome in 1976, aiming to interview — for my university magazine — three of the writers who lived there or thereabouts at the time. I duly wrote to Anthony Burgess, Gore Vidal and Muriel Spark. All of them politely turned me down but I went anyway and have revisited the city many times. In fact, in the way life sometimes arranges these things, I later met all three writers and even came to know Burgess and Vidal a bit.

Robert Tombs

Beyond Brexit | 13 December 2018

From our UK edition

None of us can predict the potential fallout from Brexit, good and bad. What began as a vote of confidence in our institutions has shown them to be dangerously fallible. A country where people usually rub along together is now marked by a cultural and emotional rift. If Brexit does continue to dominate our politics for years, will it mean a reform of our institutions, or a battening down of the hatches by a beleaguered elite? Will the House of Lords, having alienated its natural defenders, at last be seriously reformed? Shall we try to restrain the dangerously capricious powers of prime ministers? Shall we empower local government? Both Brexiteers and Remainers will be in a rather militant mood.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Victory? No, yesterday’s result weakens May’s authority still further

From our UK edition

Theresa May has survived the vote, but her authority is weakened still further. More than a third of Tory MPs have voted against her and this is after she pledged not to fight the next election and to get legally enforceable changes to the backstop. If May had kept the number of those voting against her below 100, it would have been a good result for her. If she had kept it to below 80, it would have strengthened her position considerably. But anything over 105 was always going to be tricky for her as that meant a 1/3rd of her MPs didn’t have confidence in her. This became truer as the day went on and May offered concessions to try and win over wavering MPs.

Steerpike

Watch: Anna Soubry rows with fellow Tory MP

From our UK edition

Theresa May has survived a vote of confidence but the Tory party is not a happy place. Anna Soubry and Robert Buckland have just had a very public row on Sky News. It's safe to say the two Tory MPs did not see eye-to-eye about what should happen next. Buckland told Soubry that it was 'time to move on'. But Soubry said the PM was just offering more of the same 'empty rhetoric': Soubry: 'Let me finish please' Buckland: 'This is time for compromise not for people taking artificial lines and looking for nirvana' Soubry later appeared to mutter that her colleague's words were 'absolute rubbish'. Oh dear..

Isabel Hardman

After a day of high drama, nothing has changed

From our UK edition

Even before the result of the Tory no confidence vote was announced, the mood in Committee Room 14 was rather jovial. Chief Whip Julian Smith appeared minutes before the result, looking both exhausted and happy. Nerves were sufficiently calm for someone to crack a joke in the pause between Sir Graham Brady arriving and him starting to speak. 'Let us pray!' they quipped, sending the room into fits of giggles. In fact, the mood was almost eerily cheery, a bit like someone who has spent all night awake drinking coffee. When Brady announced that the Conservative party does indeed have confidence in Theresa May, the Tory MPs present broke into loud and pointed cheers.

Steerpike

Watch: Jacob Rees-Mogg calls on Theresa May to go

From our UK edition

Theresa May has survived the vote of confidence in her leadership, but Jacob Rees-Mogg has insisted the Prime Minister should still quit. The Tory Brexiteer said that the result was 'terrible' for the PM, pointing out that many of those who backed her were 'on the payroll': 'The PM must realise under most constitutional norms she ought to go and see the Queen urgently and resign' May has won a battle, but her critics are determined not to back down just yet...

Brendan O’Neill

Why Theresa May must go

From our UK edition

Theresa May has got to go. She has got to go because she has failed British democracy, failed the British people, and reneged on the Conservative Party’s own manifesto promise to leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market. She has got to go because 17.4m Britons, the largest democratic bloc in British history, voted to ‘Take back control’ and she responded by ceding even more control to Brussels. She has got to go because the British people clearly want someone to stand up to Brussels, yet she bows and scrapes before Brussels, capitulating to its every undemocratic demand and conspiring in its stitch-up of Brexit. Yet the expectation is that she will survive this evening’s confidence vote.

Charles Moore

Four points for Tory MPs to consider before voting tonight

From our UK edition

If I were a Tory MP, I would be worried by the timing of this vote, but, given that it is happening, I would think the following: 1. She's trying to bounce me by making me vote tonight. 2. This is the last chance for a year, because Theresa May is rule-bound and not one to take hints. 3. I do not, in fact, have confidence in her, and so, since I'm being asked, I should say so. 4. Although I do think she is sincere in wishing to deliver what people voted for, we have learnt that she doesn't know how to do this. We urgently need a Prime Minister who does. I am conscious that there is no guarantee that my vote would bring what I want, but I would reluctantly prefer the uncertainty of a contest to the certainty of Mrs May in Downing Street.

Ross Clark

Is business really that bothered by the prospect of May’s departure?

From our UK edition

The world of business is, apparently, appalled by the actions of the 48 or more Conservative MPs who have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader. According to the Institute of Directors, its members are ‘tearing their hair out’ over today’s news. The message seems to be that a change of Prime Minister is an unwanted distraction when the country is already in a state of crisis. Yet markets seem to disagree. The FTSE this morning is up by more than one per cent. However negatively bosses might see the potential end of Theresa May as Prime Minister, investors in their companies seem to be taking a rather more positive view. It is not the first time that a divergence has emerged between business leaders and investors over Brexit.

Alex Massie

Ditching Theresa May achieves nothing

From our UK edition

Theresa May has failed. That is no longer in doubt. Nor is there any prospect of resurrection. Her credibility within the Conservative party, the House of Commons, and the country at large is shot. The only thing propping up her Government is the fear that allowing it to collapse completely would invite Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. That, for the time being, is something even this deranged iteration of the Conservative party is not prepared to countenance. As a matter of party politics, May has been on some kind of unofficial probation ever since last year’s disastrous general election. In office, certainly, but only tolerated grudgingly.