Brexit

After the government confirmed James's story that any Tory MPs who rebel in a Brexit vote this week will have the whip withdrawn and be unable to stand as a Conservative at the next election, anti-no deal MPs find themselves in a dilemma. No 10’s aim is to present them with a simple choice: Johnson or Corbyn, making clear that the wrong decision will be career-ending. A number have been dissuaded from joining efforts tomorrow to legislate against no deal. Others – including David Gauke and Rory Stewart – appear to be holding firm. However, whatever happens this week with the votes, the dilemma for the anti-no deal Tories will remain much the same. The Conservative party under Johnson is set on a path that many cannot reconcile with their Brexit views.

“The crypto-fascists are in charge”. So spoke one of the senior Tories planning to rebel tomorrow against Boris Johnson – which captures in its visceral anger the magnitude of the gulf between the new prime minister and those of his backbenchers who want a no-deal Brexit taken off the table.

On Saturday thousands of people across Britain demonstrated against Boris Johnson’s recently-announced prorogation of parliament. Despite the heated response it provoked, proroguing parliament is a standard device which over the years has been employed by governments of all stripes. And as parliament was to be suspended for a few weeks during September and October in any case to allow the parties to hold their annual conferences, Johnson’s measure has reduced MPs’ time to prevent a no-deal Brexit by just a few days. In the context of an unprecedented crisis, with the clock ticking down to October 31, the Prime Minister’s act of constitutional sharp practice nonetheless outraged those who demonstrated on Saturday.

This morning, a petition demanding ‘Do not prorogue Parliament’ is doing the rounds. At the time of writing, more than 1.4 million people have signed it. Remainers are very excited. They’re holding the petition up as proof of a mass outpouring of democratic disdain for Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament for a few more days than is normal. It is no such thing. It looks more like yet another middle-class hissy fit against Brexit and the people who voted for it.  As the petition map demonstrates, the signatories are strikingly concentrated in certain parts of the country, especially the leafy, super-middle-class bits of southern England.

Ruth Davidson’s departure is a blow to the Tory party and the Union. Without her, the Tories will find it even more of a struggle to keep hold of their Scottish seats at the coming Westminster election. At the same time, the removal of such a formidable campaigner will make it that bit easier for the pro-independence parties as they try and win a majority at Holyrood in 2021—something that would almost certainly lead to a second independence referendum. Davidson’s press conference this morning was an understated affair: this was not an emotional goodbye, more a matter-of-fact resignation. I suspect that Number 10 will have been relieved by the fact that Davidson while not hiding her differences with Boris Johnson over Brexit, took no swipes at him.

Boris Johnson sees method in and admires some of Trump's apparent madness: not the 'send them home' abusive chants about ethnic minority Democrat critics, but the refusal to play by the normal rules of politics or international relations (threatening to nuke North Korea before talking with its despot; imposing new tariffs on China while claiming to want a trade deal; ripping up the international entente with Iran prior to saying just days ago he could be the first US president since the toppling of the Shah to meet an Iranian leader). In case Johnson hasn't noticed, Trump hasn't enjoyed any conspicuous success with what can perhaps best be described as governing through organised chaos – though equally the world hasn't ended. Or at least not yet.