Politics

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My plan to give Britain a better future

Rishi Sunak launched his Tory leadership bid today. Here's the full text of his speech: We need to have a grown up conversation about where we are, how we got here and what we intend to do about it. It is a conversation for those of us gathered here in this room today and the Conservative party more widely. But, above all, it’s a conversation we need to have with the British people. And it starts with being honest with each other. That matters because the decisions we make in the coming days and weeks will set a course that will determine whether the next generation of British people inherent a stronger and more confident nation. The Conservative party was elected with a large majority so it falls to us to decide who carries the flag forward in this parliament.

End of quote. Repeat the line. Joe Biden can’t go on

How much longer can the global disaster that is Joe Biden’s presidency go on? Surely there comes a point when the Democrats do what the Tory party did to Boris Johnson last week – declare enough is enough and force him out? The odds of Biden running for a second term are shrinking dramatically – no matter how many times he insists he will go on. The more pressing question is whether he can even hold on for the remaining two years of his first four. A miserable poll just published in the New York Times shows that only 13 per cent of Americans think their nation is on the ‘right track’.

The problem with euro-dollar parity

The euro is nearly level with the dollar. It should not matter in theory, because of the relatively low share of the US in EU trade. But it does in practice. Some predict that the euro will fall below parity. There is a straightforward explanation for this: the war in Ukraine and unpredictable Russian gas supplies to Europe make the dollar a safe haven for investors. On top of this, US interest rates offer a higher return on investment. But it is not only the dollar. Looking at the broader picture, the European Central Bank's measure of the euro's real effective exchange rate against 42 partner countries confirms this trend towards a new historic low: really bad news comes from the combination of the euro's falling value, the energy crisis, and the return of inflation.

Is the Tory right being split?

Today's the day in the Tory leadership race where it starts to look less like a fun run with anyone and everyone taking part. By this evening, candidates need to have the backing of at least 20 of their MP colleagues. Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Tom Tugendhat are the only candidates out of a field of 11 (and possibly still growing) to reach the threshold. It means today will be a frenzied round of conversations in the corridors of power, with half of Conservative MPs still to give their endorsements (read the full list here). Liz Truss isn't far off reaching the threshold, but she is competing with Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch and potentially also Priti Patel One of the big tussles is over who gets the backing of the right of the party.

The case for Liz Truss

The past six years have been a turbulent and controversial time in British politics. Through them all, one person consistently delivered progress, not deflected by the chaos around her. As others made headlines, Liz Truss made deals. Having been environment secretary under David Cameron, Truss was justice secretary and lord chancellor then chief secretary to the Treasury under Theresa May, before moving on to become trade secretary, minister for women and foreign secretary under Boris Johnson. Experience at Environment, Justice, the Treasury, Trade, Women and Foreign Affairs provide the perfect background of experience – a suite and breadth that no other candidate in the race comes even close to matching. A Truss administration will be a conservative administration.

The desperate drive to be the next Tory leader

There’s a scent in the air around the Tory leadership contest. It is the whiff of desperation. The aroma of provincial ballrooms when the lights go up at midnight; or of the last few seconds before a firing on The Apprentice when a contestant butts in with ‘Can I just say...’ and Lord Sugar snaps: ‘I’ve heard enough from you.’ First to set the tone was Rishi Sunak, coached not to blink or move his eyes, which some PR adviser obviously still thinks makes a person look agreeable and approachable, and not like a double glazing salesman who must get this commission from a confused elderly lady or starve.

Is Sunak really a big state believer?

There’s something strange happening in Tory politics. It’s not surprising to see leadership candidates taking special aim at the current frontrunner Rishi Sunak. But the attacks being used are redefining the economic philosophy of the Tory party in a way that could soon backfire, regardless of who wins the top job.Take, for example, Liz Truss’s most recent pitch to MPs: get behind one Tory right candidate or risk sending Sunak into No. 10. Allies of Suella Braverman are reported to be making a similar pitch. The vast number of candidates in this race has indeed caused a lot of uncertainty and increases the likelihood of surprise results – something leadership hopefuls are desperate to avoid. But to the main point: since when is Sunak on the Tory left?

The problem with being anti-woke

I'm going to do something that will likely annoy you, dear reader: I am going to make an argument about a certain class of people without naming names. If I do name names, any response will devolve into a debate over whether I am unfairly tarring the individuals in question. That’s beside the point, because the phenomenon in question is undoubtedly real. That phenomenon is anti-wokeness curdling into reactionary crankery. Don’t get me wrong: as I’ve previously written, I think there’s a moral panic afoot in many liberal institutions. Whether you want to call it 'wokeness' or something else, it seems undeniably the case that a culture of illiberalism has corroded these spaces.

Can Truss unite the Tory right?

The news that Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries are backing Liz Truss is significant. That Boris’s two most dedicated Cabinet supporters are backing Truss is a clear sign to other Johnsonites to follow them. It is also, given Rees-Mogg’s ERG pedigree, an attempt to get the party’s right to swing behind Truss. This effort by the Truss campaign has been complicated by the fact that in the referendum she backed Remain. Also on the right, Suella Braverman’s supporters are confident that she has the numbers to make the 20 threshold to be on the first ballot, and is most likely to secure the 30 votes needed to progress into the next round.

Can Sajid Javid’s leadership bid stand out from the crowd?

What did Sajid Javid pitch himself as this afternoon? Well, the candidate of tax cuts, along with all the others apart from Rishi Sunak. But given everyone is engaged in an arms race on how big and how soon their tax cuts will be, there is largely Conservative consensus now that these are going to happen. So what does the former Health Secretary think will make him stand out from the (very big) crowd? The central message of Javid's campaign launch was that the Conservatives are facing an existential threat if they don't change Javid had an extremely sweaty launch today as the temperature in London rose and the heat in the contest got worse.

Now Steve Baker goes for Penny

It's all getting a bit heated in the Tory leadership wars. Fresh from the sweltering heat of the Churchill War Rooms, Steve Baker has marched into the LBC studios with his blood clearly boiling. The 'Brexit hardman' went on Andrew Marr's show tonight and launched a howitzer at fellow Brexiteer Penny Mordaunt. Baker, who is backing Suella Braverman of the European Research Group, was asked to assess Mordaunt's credentials. He replied: I'm sorry Penny but where were you when I needed you? She was supposed to be a Brexiteer. And when I was a bruised, you know, beaten captain in the trenches, Penny was staying in the Cabinet along with others.

Tory leadership race tightens as MP threshold raised

The 1922 Committee has this evening agreed to change the Tory leadership rules so as to raise the threshold of the number of MP nominations required to enter the race. Each candidate will need 20 supporters, including a proposer and seconder, in order to enter. They will then need to secure 30 votes in the first round to progress. This is a significant increase to the threshold which in 2019 was at just eight nominations As for the timetable, Sir Graham Brady – chair of the 1922 committee – said a new leader would be announced by 5th September. In terms of the parliamentary round, things could move very quickly indeed. The first ballot will take place on Wednesday then likely the second on Thursday. Brady suggested the final two could have been agreed as soon as next Monday.

Of course Rishi Sunak doesn’t have any working-class friends

I see there’s much chortling over the fact that Rishi Sunak once said he had no working-class friends. It was in 2001, for a BBC series called Middle Classes: Their Rise and Sprawl. In a resurfaced clip, Sunak, who would have been 21 at the time, says: ‘I have friends who are aristocrats, I have friends who are upper class, I have friends who are working class… well, not working class.’ It’s the way he swiftly corrects himself when he says he has working-class mates that has got people going. It’s the speediest of self-corrections. It’s like he suddenly thinks to himself: ‘Oh God, no — I don’t associate with those people.’ ‘Gotcha!’, the social-media set is saying. The clip has gone insanely viral.

Penny Mordaunt and the Tory transgender divide

As war rages in Europe and inflation rockets, the Tory party is tearing itself apart in its hunt for a new leader. Only days into the contest, the transgender debate is emerging as a key issue that divides the candidates. It's a mistake to think of it as a niche issue: the question of women's toilets and pronouns has the power to derail a leadership bid, as Penny Mordaunt may soon find out. Suella Braverman, the Attorney General and one of the leadership hopefuls, has been clear in her frustration about the impact this debate has had on her. Last year, Braverman made history as the first cabinet minister to take maternity leave. Legislation needed to be passed, but it was not without controversy.

Suella Braverman’s human rights critics are missing the point

Yesterday Suella Braverman unequivocally stated that, as Prime Minister, she would work to withdraw Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The reaction she encountered on social media was, of course, predictable. To say she was portrayed as a right-wing nut-job, a kind of amalgam of Cruella de Vil and Josiah Bounderby, Dickens’s heartless capitalist in Hard Times, is probably an understatement. As usual in politics, however, there is a bit more to this than meets the eye. To begin with, Suella has only said directly what other politicians have hinted at before: think Theresa May’s tentative suggestion about exiting the ECHR in 2017, briefly floated and hurriedly withdrawn as too hot to handle.

Why the 1922 Committee vote matters

Looking at the candidates for the executive of the 1922 Committee, set to be contested in an election this afternoon, it is much easier to predict where they would stand on a rule change to allow a second no confidence vote – the issue at hand when nominations opened – than on the threshold question. For example, Boris loyalist Sheryll Murray, who would have opposed a rule change is going up against Will Wragg, who would have supported one. The officers of the 1922 Committee will stay neutral in the contest I expect, no one running for an officer position has endorsed anybody. Among those standing for the executive are a slew of people backing Tom Tugendhat – but he could likely make it over a 36 nominations threshold as well as a 20 vote one.

Who will win over the Tory right?

16 min listen

Liz Truss has today announced her candidacy for the Tory leadership. With Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman already looking to win votes from MPs on the right of the Conservative party, and with Jacob Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel also considering a run for the top job, who will become the candidate of the Tory right? Katy Balls speaks to Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth. Produced by Max Jeffery.

Could Sunak implode?

There are few positions so perilous as being the frontrunner in a party leadership contest. Just being the heir apparent when no contest is happening is dicey enough, with the incumbent leader usually highly susceptible to murmurings from courtiers about your alleged manoeuvrings against him. But once the race is actively underway things get even more dangerous. You become the contender everyone else needs to destroy before the decisive round of voting gets underway. Them’s the breaks right now for Rishi Sunak, the golden boy with the silver tongue who kept many people’s businesses afloat and the economy out of a long-term slump during the pandemic.