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So just what was the point in dragging political journalists out of bed to be addressed by Rachel Reeves in Downing Street this morning? We could – and should – have had the Budget by now. Instead, we got a half Budget speech – a desperate attempt to blame the Tories, a vague suggestion that taxes are going to go up (which we know anyway) without any details. We heard yet more about Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, despite the fact that they have been out of office for more than three years. Reeves herself has been in office approximately ten times as long as Truss and Kwarteng were. Reeves is fooling

Nigel Farage has shelved massive tax cuts in favour of slashing public spending in a bid to balance the books. The Reform leader said in a speech this morning that ‘substantial tax cuts given the dire state of debt and our finances are not realistic at this current moment’. The ‘back-of-a-fag packet’ economics that characterised Reform’s election manifesto last year have been disposed of No doubt a fair few Reform supporters will be disappointed: it means that, if Farage wins power at the next election, the tax burden will remain at a post-war high for at least a couple of years. We won’t be hearing very much about the Laffer

Rachel Reeves is reportedly considering a 2p increase in income tax, taking the basic rate from 20 to 22 per cent. That might seem modest by historic standards, yet it would be a clear breach of Labour’s manifesto promise, made just over a year ago, not to raise any of the big three taxes. More importantly, it underscores the scale of the structural pressures facing Britain’s public finances – pressures that cannot be addressed by minor tax tweaks alone. If Reeves truly wants to strengthen Britain’s economic foundations, she should turn her attention to welfare reform – not as a matter of cruelty but of common sense. Britain’s welfare state

Oh, the horrid injustice of it all! By the skin of their teeth, pensioners on the state pension and with no other income, are going to avoid paying income tax next year. With September’s inflation figures now in, it can be confirmed that, thanks to the Triple Lock, the state pension will be rising to £12,547 next April, bringing it perilously close to the personal tax allowance of £12,570. You can write down in your diary now the day next year when the state pension certainly will tip over into taxable territory. There will be howls of outrage from opposition parties and pressure groups representing pensioners during this week. Prepare

An American in London, I frequently have occasion to return to my hometown of Los Angeles. In my latest trip this week, I changed my drink of choice because of President Trump. I passed over a French champagne in favour of a California red, and, in effect, became a case study on the transformative might of Trump’s policies. When I dumbfoundedly showed my US-based drinking mates the bar menu, they too marvelled at the exorbitant prices Fortune found me settling into a bar in Beverly Hills, in a swanky five-star hotel in one of the country’s poshest neighbourhoods, for a nip of drinks with former colleagues. Thinking to celebrate our

The economy is slowing down. GDP grew 0.3 per cent in the three months to August. As ever, services propped up Britain, growing by 0.4 per cent, while the production sector shrank by 0.3 per cent, according to Office for National Statistics data. We could have news of a stagnating economy confirmed just in time for Rachel Reeves’s Budget That growth over the last three months though was helped by a bumper June with the economy flat over the latest two months. If things don’t improve in the September data, then we could have news of a stagnating economy confirmed just in time for Rachel Reeves’s second Budget. Inflation too,

It is day three of Labour’s latest strategy: to try to blame Nigel Farage for the forthcoming tax rises in the Budget. After Health Secretary Wes Streeting had a go on Monday, Rachel Reeves this morning has made a similar point. The reason she is looking to raise taxes in the Budget, the Chancellor says, is because of Brexit. ‘There is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting,’ she said. Next up, apparently, is Keir Starmer, who at one point is going to tell us that Farage is guilty of campaigning for Brexit and then walking away from its implementation. Given that he wasn’t, and never

On Question Time last week, Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader and erstwhile boob-whisperer, declared that there is no evidence that the wealthy leave Britain because of wealth taxes. A bold claim, and a wrong one. It’s also revealing, symptomatic of a growing belief on the populist left that Britain’s problems could be solved if only we shook the ultra-rich’s pockets a little harder. Polanski assured the audience that a wealth tax would only fall on those with more than £10 million in assets – as if this made it both morally tidy and economically painless. Unfortunately, history and basic arithmetic disagree. France tried almost exactly that, with a rate

As Nigel Farage prepares to abandon pledges of up to £90 billion in tax cuts, there will be plenty of people arguing that his Reform party is giving up on its free market, small state roots. Other critics may say this is proof that Reform is shifting further to the left and pandering to its new voters in the old Labour heartlands. A few critics may well even accuse it of joining the ‘uniparty’. Perhaps so. And yet, with its dominant lead in the polls, Reform also had to get rid of a set of policies that often gave the impression they had been scribbled on the back of a

Stock exchanges around the world compete with each other to entice the most exciting companies to sell their shares on their markets, via Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). London was once the financial capital of the world, and a leader in IPOs. Now it has fallen to number 23 in the global IPO rankings, having been surpassed by the likes of Mexico and Indonesia. In 2006, at its fundraising peak, $51 billion was raised on the London Stock Exchange, with companies such as Unilever and Vodafone making London their home. This year, London IPOs raised just $250 million. Even companies already listed on the London exchange, such as AstraZeneca, are shunning it

It already faced tariffs in the United States, and it has been struggling to cope with some of the highest industrial energy prices in the world. Now what remains of the British steel industry faces what could well be a terminal blow. The European Union is about to impose tariffs of 50 per cent on steel imported from the UK. Labour ministers will no doubt start cobbling together rescue packages, and trying to devise a new strategy to rescue the industry. But perhaps it would be best just to be honest – and let the industry die.  The EU has set out plans to cut the amount of steel imported

The message the Tories want you to leave their conference with is that they are the party of prudence. The party of fiscal responsibility who will make the first ‘serious down payments’ on the size of the state, as shadow chancellor Mel Stride explained at a Spectator drinks reception last night. Today, he will set out his plan to achieve that. Stride will ‘recommit’ his party to ‘fiscal prudence’ by announcing £47 billion in savings for the public purse. Those measures include: Welfare reforms that will include stopping claims from people with ‘low level mental health problems’ and foreigners and reversing any lifting of the two-child benefit cap to bring

When Rachel Reeves speaks at Labour party conference today, she has a tough message to deliver. The Chancellor will announce her plans to ‘abolish youth unemployment’ by forcing Britain’s jobless youth into work. There’s a moral case to be made for welfare reform and the Chancellor must make it today The ‘youth guarantee’ scheme will offer the carrot of a guaranteed work placement once unemployed 18 to 21-year-olds have spent 18 months out of the workforce. Those who turn down job offers or training places, however, will face the stick via sanctions such as having their benefits docked. With nearly one million 16 to 24-year-olds classified as not in education,

Donald Trump’s political and legal assault on the Federal Reserve has provoked concern and indignation from the defenders of central banks’ operational independence. Amid the sound and fury, some simple points are being forgotten. Whether or not this distracts central bankers from their main goal of controlling inflation is a matter of debate First, public trust and confidence in central banks is critical if banks are to be operationally independent. That trust was shaken when many central banks lost control of inflation in 2021, erroneously seeing it as ‘transitory’. In the inquest that followed, many central bankers blamed this mistake squarely on their forecasting models. Clearly models had much to answer

The OECD expects the UK economy to outperform the eurozone and grow by 1.4 per cent over the year. But there is a downside to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s latest figures: the body expects the UK’s inflation problem to persist, ending this year at 3.5 per cent, down just a touch from the 3.8 per cent measured by the ONS (Office for National Statistics) in July and August. It predicts that inflation will be 2.7 per cent at the end of 2026 – still a long away from the Bank of England’s two per cent target. Inflation in Britain is due to be markedly higher than in the

There really is no good news for Rachel Reeves as she prepares her second Budget. This morning’s borrowing figures are not just bad; they hint at a sense of hopelessness, that Britain is sliding inexorably towards a very deep fiscal crisis. This is yet another fiscal black hole for Reeves to fill, along with another about to be created by the OBR In August, the government had to borrow £18 billion, £3.5 billion more than in August 2024. This is in spite of £40 billion worth of tax rises (or rather tax rises which were hoped to raise an extra £40 billion) in last year’s Budget. Government receipts are indeed up

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4 per cent. Threadneedle Street’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted seven to two to keep rates where they are. The fact inflation now sits at almost double the Bank’s 2 per cent target outweighed concerns about the slackening jobs market and what its impact on Britain’s lacklustre growth. Two members voted to cut rates to 3.75 per cent, but the overall decision is no surprise. There’s a growing sense that the bulk of committee members feel they perhaps made a mistake in cutting rates last month with inflation still climbing. Markets don’t expect another cut this side of Christmas and the

Are Britons getting sicker and sicker – or is our health improving? There seems to be something of a paradox. According to figures from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) the number of sickness absences has increased from an average of 5.9 days per worker in 2019 to 9.4 days in 2024. Interestingly, the sharp increase in the number of sick days has coincided with a rise in working from home Remarkably, it has increased by 1.6 days in a single year – it was 7.8 days in 2023. This is based on a survey of 1,100 employers, which also found that the most common reasons for work