Economy

Barely noticed amid all the other bad news and political shenanigans, there’s a slump in UK housebuilding that makes Labour’s promise of 1.5 million new homes within this parliament not just ‘stretching’, as the departed minister Angela Rayner called it, but a Truman Show fantasy of utopian suburbs that will never exist. Glenigan, a data provider for the construction industry, reports that residential ‘main contract awards’ in the three months to the end of August were down 44 per cent on last year and detailed planning permissions down 42 per cent. In London, only 2,158 new homes – a tiny fraction of anyone’s target or expectation – were started in

It will at least give the cabbies something to genuinely complain about. Amid all the wheezes that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is plotting to fix the ‘black hole’ in the public finances, she is now considering a ‘taxi tax’. Ahead of November’s Budget, it has been floated that VAT may well be applied on all cab rides. But this plan is likely to end up backfiring badly on Reeves – and the government more broadly.  According to reports this week, the Chancellor is likely to impose a blanket 20 per cent rate of VAT on all taxi rides. Right now, taxi firms outside of London do not have to charge VAT

There really is no good news for Rachel Reeves as she prepares her second Budget. This morning’s borrowing figures are not just bad; they hint at a sense of hopelessness, that Britain is sliding inexorably towards a very deep fiscal crisis. This is yet another fiscal black hole for Reeves to fill, along with another about to be created by the OBR In August, the government had to borrow £18 billion, £3.5 billion more than in August 2024. This is in spite of £40 billion worth of tax rises (or rather tax rises which were hoped to raise an extra £40 billion) in last year’s Budget. Government receipts are indeed up

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4 per cent. Threadneedle Street’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted seven to two to keep rates where they are. The fact inflation now sits at almost double the Bank’s 2 per cent target outweighed concerns about the slackening jobs market and what its impact on Britain’s lacklustre growth. Two members voted to cut rates to 3.75 per cent, but the overall decision is no surprise. There’s a growing sense that the bulk of committee members feel they perhaps made a mistake in cutting rates last month with inflation still climbing. Markets don’t expect another cut this side of Christmas and the

Tesla does not look like a great investment right now. The competition from better and cheaper Chinese electric vehicles is savage and Elon Musk’s outspoken political views have tarnished the brand, at least among the eco-conscious liberals who first adopted it. And yet, Musk has just spent $1 billion (£733 million) of his own money on its shares. His investment only makes sense as a bet on its robotics unit – but that is still very high risk for the company’s pugnacious CEO.  No one could ever accuse Musk of not putting his money where his mouth is. While Tesla may be under more pressure than ever, yesterday he sank

Keir Starmer should be thankful for Lord Mandelson. Were it not for scandal over the Mandelson’s connections with Jeffrey Epstein, more people might have noticed an even greater disgrace this morning. The Prime Minister’s promise of ‘growth, growth, growth’ has ploughed spectacularly into the ground. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports today that there was zero growth in the economy in July, and just 0.2 per cent of growth in the three months to July. Besides being lousy news in itself, it is likely to lead to a further downgrading of future growth forecasts, resulting in the Chancellor having an even bigger black hole in her Budget, necessitating even

Gold goes on up: having risen by an unprecedented 40 per cent in a year to pass $3,600 (or £2,675) per ounce by the beginning of this week, even its most ardent devotees are wondering how long the surge can last. Much of the rise clearly represents a stampede towards the most traditional of safe havens, in anticipation of market storms ahead as well as fears over inflation and Donald Trump’s threat to the independence of the US Federal Reserve. But it also has to do with a secular shift in the economic world: de-dollarisation, as favoured by the busload of US-hating heads of states who partied with Xi Jinping

Are Britons getting sicker and sicker – or is our health improving? There seems to be something of a paradox. According to figures from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) the number of sickness absences has increased from an average of 5.9 days per worker in 2019 to 9.4 days in 2024. Interestingly, the sharp increase in the number of sick days has coincided with a rise in working from home Remarkably, it has increased by 1.6 days in a single year – it was 7.8 days in 2023. This is based on a survey of 1,100 employers, which also found that the most common reasons for work

Here is a rather delightful fact. For 13 years between 2010 and 2023 Britain had a quango called the Office for Tax Simplification. You may never have heard of it, but it really did exist. Its annual report for 2021/22 shows that it was chaired by someone called Kathryn Kearns and had a budget of £1.057 million, £868,000 of which was paid in staff wages. But here’s the thing. In 2010, when it was founded, Tolley’s Tax Guide – the accountant’s bible – ran to 867 pages. The 2023 edition – the year the Office for Tax Simplification was wound up – ran to, er, 1,020 pages. No one should

‘We’re going to get all our oil and gas out of the North Sea’ was certainly a winning line for Kemi Badenoch to deliver to the Offshore Europe conference in Aberdeen this week, just as she might open with ‘I love puppies’ to a spaniel breeders’ convention in Surrey. But other than as an appeal to climate-change-sceptic would-be Reform voters, how much sense did it make? A recent study by the industry body hosting the Aberdeen event says that if – in some Ed-Miliband-free alternative universe – all remaining reserves under the North Sea were licensed for development, they could provide half the UK’s hydrocarbon needs until 2050, by which