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The markets have stopped listening to Donald Trump

Over the last 24 hours, President Trump has come up with a bewildering series of “solutions” to the global oil crisis triggered by his war with Iran. He might seize all of the country’s oil wells. He may send the marines in to capture its main exporting hub, Kharg Island. He has threatened to bomb the country back to the Stone Age if it doesn’t re-open the Straits of Hormuz, while at the same time – apparently – he is very close to a “fantastic deal” that will settle the entire conflict. But will these threats work? Can Trump keep a lid on the unfolding crisis? Crucially, the markets are

Spotlight

Featured economics news and data.

Cutting Britain’s giant welfare bill would be an act of kindness

Does having money really matter that much? There are those, usually with quite a bit of it, who want us to care less about materialism. But, unequivocally, money really does matter – not because of any status it supposedly brings, but for the freedom it buys: freedom to choose how we live and how we look after others. Considering this, it seems that the deep disillusionment with mainstream politicians in recent years stems from a protracted and ongoing period of stagnant living standards over which they have presided. But the truth is that the average person has not got poorer since the global financial crisis. They have got a little

The Iran war is just what Putin’s depleted coffers need

Of all the parties watching the chaos in the Middle East unfold, one should be rubbing its hands together with particular satisfaction. Russia has not fired a shot in this conflict, lost no allies it cannot afford to lose and has so far gained rather a lot, with more to come. A cynic might call it the perfect war for Vladimir Putin. Moscow’s public reaction has been characteristically theatrical. The Foreign Ministry denounced American and Israeli actions as a “reckless step” and a “dangerous adventure.” Things have gone no further. There has been no announcement of political or military support for Iran from the Kremlin – nor is there likely

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What would Adam Smith make of the AI revolution?

Today marks the 250th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations: Adam Smith’s seminal text in the history of economics. Smith gave his name to the institute that I co-founded, so you might expect me to advocate for reading his most famous text. But you shouldn’t. It’s very long, written in elegant but spacious prose and full to exasperation of examples, observations and terminologies that puzzle a modern reader. Read my Condensed Wealth of Nations instead or wait for my cartoon graphic novel to come out later in the year. Smith would see the scale of government today as the greatest tyranny Nonetheless, modern unreadability doesn’t mean that

adam smith

MAGA-nomics is working

Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, the longest in history, served as a reminder of the relentless will and unstoppable energy he brings to the office of the presidency. In a coup de grâce he humiliated congressional Democrats, securing footage of them remaining seated en masse as they refused to accept that the role of the government is to prioritize American citizens. He gently chastised the Supreme Court judges, assembled in the front row, for declaring his tariff program unlawful last Friday. Our political right should take heed: for all its roughness, this agenda isn’t going away The President’s opponents may be celebrating the judgment, but the Donald is

MAGAnomics

The Supreme Court is right to reject Trump’s tariffs

At a rally in Georgia on Thursday night, President Trump declared that he couldn’t wait “forever” for the Supreme Court to rule on the legitimacy of his sweeping tariff policy. Whether or not the court was listening to his complaint, forever arrived today as it handed Trump a thumping defeat. It struck a blow not only for fiscal but also political sanity. Government intrusion upon the free enterprise system is bound to prove inimical to prosperity and liberty The language of the ruling was as lapidary as it was persuasive. “President asserts the extraordinary power to unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration and scope,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the

The unfathomable depths of blue-state fraud

“The Somali pirates who ransacked Minnesota remind us that there are large parts of the world where bribery, corruption and lawlessness are the norm, not the exception,” said Donald Trump in his State of the Union address last night, as the Democrats booed and heckled him. Media commentators scoffed at Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric. But the President, who estimated that $19 billion had been lost to fraud in Minnesota alone, is if anything underplaying the scale of the problem. The extent of fraud across blue state (that is, Democrat-led) America is truly monstrous, and each week brings fresh revelations of swindling on a truly epic scale. Trump’s now-withdrawn ICE surge in

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Trump is right about greenhouse gases

Irresponsible Trump, responsible China: that is the message the BBC’s climate editor seemed to be sending us by juxtaposing the news that the President had repealed Barack Obama’s “endangerment finding” and that China’s carbon emissions fell slightly last year. Trump’s critics like to portray him as a rogue figure in a world which is otherwise committed to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. But is there any truth in that? The endangerment finding does not appear to have had any obvious impact on US emissions The endangerment finding was a piece of legalese issued in a 2009 ruling by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It stated that six greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide,

Musk’s SpaceX is worth every penny

As the hype builds for the reported $1.5 trillion IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX later this year, there will be plenty of critics who argue the company’s marketing has more hot air than one of its rockets. It has been claimed by some that the IPO will be worth more than the top seven companies currently listed on the London Stock Exchange – including century-old giants such as Shell, HSBC and AstraZeneca – combined. And yes, sure, there is probably an element of wishful thinking in these reports, as there often is with Musk. But SpaceX also has the potential to become one of the giants of the 21st-century economy

elon musk spaceX

Colombia can’t give Trump the cocaine crackdown he wants

When President Donald Trump hurled abuse at Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro last month, branding him a “sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States,” it was strikingly audacious. Trump leaned into bombastic provocation: there is no evidence to suggest Petro himself makes cocaine. And yet, Trump’s claim didn’t come as a shock – the two leaders have spent the past year locked in a volley of barbs with one another. Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing leader, likes to fire back with ideological, often sermonizing lectures on imperialism and US hypocrisy. But tangled up in the rancorous exchanges – many of them about drugs – is a

The golden rule: there’s no reason to stop buying precious metals

Last year might have proved a good time to own shares in the chip-maker Nvidia, along with the booming American tech giants. Or a piece of the defense manufacturers as the world re-arms. Or to hold a position in some of the rapidly growing economies of South America or Asia, or even one of the hyped-up crypto currencies. There were plenty of places investors expected to make money over the past year. As it turned out, however, there was one asset that outpaced them all, even though it generates no income: gold, and to an even greater extent, its junior sibling silver. With government debt soaring out of control, the

Trump’s credible threat at Davos

The headline from Trump’s Davos speech is clear: I won’t use military force to take Greenland. That’s what the President told the world’s leading politicians and business executives at the World Economic Forum. That declaration was very good news for all of them and for US investors, who immediately started buying stocks, erasing about half the losses suffered Tuesday, when the threat of force seemed possible. They all knew that carrying out that military threat would shatter the institutional foundation of Western security: NATO and US-European relations. Instead of military threats, Trump emphasized America’s disproportionate contributions to European defense since World War Two. It was finally time for them to

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Elon Musk would be a great new owner for Ryanair

A Tesla would whisk you to the airport. The planes would be self-flying. And robots would serve the over-priced sandwiches, while, inevitably, every seat is hooked up to a live X feed. A full-scale takeover of Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, by Elon Musk may still be some way off, but with the billionaire polling his followers on X on whether he should make a bid for the budget airline, it is no longer impossible. Ryanair’s long-suffering passengers should welcome the prospect of a Musk takeover – because, while the airline revolutionized low-cost travel, Ryanair is stuck in a rut. The spat between Elon Musk, and Ryanair’s pugnacious CEO Michael O’Leary

Will US businesses profit from a return to the Russian market?

Rome Will peace in Ukraine also prove to be a great deal for US business? Vladimir Putin would certainly like Donald Trump to think so. Within days of Trump’s election victory last November, the Kremlin ordered major Russian corporations to prepare detailed proposals for economic cooperation with Washington. Coordinating these efforts were Maxim Oreshkin, deputy head of Putin’s presidential administration, and Kirill Dmitriev, the US-educated Harvard, Stanford and Goldman Sachs alumnus who heads Russia’s sovereign investment fund. According to a major US investor in Russia who eyes a postwar return to the market, among the major Russian corporations setting out potential deals for US companies were Russia’s atomic energy agency