It was a bare-bones demonstration of politics as theatre. Today, the Prime Minister went to Barrow-in-Furness on the Cumbrian coast to visit BAE Systems Submarines. The shipyard there has built all but three of the Royal Navy’s nuclear-powered submarines – the others were turned out by Cammell Laird of Birkenhead – and are undertaking the construction of the four Dreadnought-class ballistic missile submarines which will carry Britain’s nuclear deterrent through the 2030s and beyond.
The theatricality came from the fact that Andy Burnham went to Barrow to make an announcement which was inevitable and predictable. Its details were released to the media by Downing Street in advance of the Prime Minister’s appearance: essentially a trip to a submarine yard to tell an audience via television or internet something which had to happen and the details of which were already publicly available.
The Dreadnought-class boats are still many years away from entering service. Steel has been cut on all four – HMS Dreadnought, HMS Valiant, HMS Warspite and HMS King George VI – but only the lead vessel has been laid down and she is not expected to be commissioned until the early 2030s.
The programme could not be changed in any meaningful way short of cancellation
The essentials of Burnham’s announcement are as follows. The government will spend £8.4 billion on the next and fourth stage of construction of the submarines. For HMS Dreadnought, that means progressing through final outfitting and testing to prepare for sea trials; HMS Valiant will continue towards the stage of undergoing sea trials; and for HMS Warspite and HMS King George VI, the early stages of construction will continue in Devonshire Dock at BAE.
There is also a new apprenticeship scheme which will help small and medium enterprises in the defence sector in the North West of England to recruit and train 30 apprentices over the next three years. This is a very worthy ambition, but 30 new apprentices over a period of three years will not provide Alan Milburn with a solution to the problem of youth unemployment.
Here is the frustrating aspect of today’s event. The press release sways and staggers under the weight of pseudo-Burnhamite coddling, some of the phrases dissolving into meaningless absurdity when contemplated for too long. ‘Burnham drives defence to deliver security and growth in every postcode.’ ‘Security is not only about what we build, it is about who builds it, and who benefits from it.’ ‘This milestone investment breathes new life into Barrow’s historic traditions and secures our commitment to deliver Dreadnought-class submarines by backing British industry.’ ‘Today’s announcements demonstrate the government’s continued commitment to delivering on the Strategic Defence Review.’ At least the last sentence has the virtue of being funny..
This represents £8.4 billion of public expenditure, £5.9 billion of which will go to BAE Systems and the other £2.5 billion to the wonder supply chain. The money, as the government is at the most enormous pains to point out, goes towards supporting 47,000 jobs across the country, ranging from a combined 13,000 at HM Naval Base Devonport and HM Naval Base Clyde, to 250 employees at the Vulcan Naval Test Reactor Establishment at Dounreay, near Thurso.
But it is neither additional nor discretionary spending. The final decision to maintain an independent nuclear deterrent, and therefore acquire new submarines to carry the deterrent, was taken on 18 July 2016 when the House of Commons voted to agree to its retention and upgrading. That began an inexorable process, albeit one of indeterminate length. Today’s announcement is a great deal of money, but the government could hardly change its mind and abandon the Dreadnought-class submarines.
The Prime Minister, dragging us back to his reindustrialisation and ‘good growth in every postcode’ like a determined dog to a favourite stick, has laboured the point of how much the construction of the Dreadnought-class submarines will benefit the economy:
British money, spent on British workers, British firms and British skills, in the places that were written off for forty years. To every young person across the country, I want you to know that there is a path for you into a reindustrialised Britain.
This is a strange way of framing the facts. Neither Burnham nor Starmer made any significant choices in the development of the Dreadnought-class submarines or the renewal of the nuclear deterrent. The programme could not be changed in any meaningful way short of cancellation (although delays are bound to creep in and grow).
Dreadnought was a given in terms of spending decisions, albeit a very substantial commitment of many billions of pounds. In that respect, then, it tells us little or nothing about Burnham, because he has been a passenger. It will be much more revealing when the new Prime Minister makes decisions with a freer hand, like with the current Defence Investment Plan. That will give us a much more useful and indicative sense of where his instincts like, what he wants to do and what his priorities are in terms of defence and national security.
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