Since the American CIA chief John Ratcliffe made an unannounced trip to Moscow in late August to meet with his Russian intelligence counterparts, a number of theories regarding the purpose of his visit have circulated. In the weeks since, a consensus has emerged that Ratcliffe made his dash to the Kremlin to warn Russian officials against carrying out any escalatory provocation against Nato territory.
Many have assumed that Ratcliffe’s warning related to a potential attack on one of the Baltic states or Poland – all of whom share a border with Russia. But what if Vladimir Putin had other Nato territories in mind, further west in the Mediterranean?
An intriguing report has surfaced in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo linking Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow with warnings supposedly issued by the CIA to European governments about the possibility of future drone attacks against Spain, Italy and France. The paper’s source for the story appears to be an anonymous individual close to Lithuania’s ministry of defence, who claims that the American intelligence service briefed them shortly after Ratcliffe’s August trip.
It is undeniable that the risk to Europe of greyzone attacks from Moscow is growing
According to El Mundo, the Russian plans involved hiding drones in shipping containers that could then be launched from merchant (rather than military) ships in the Mediterranean. Moscow was reportedly planning to use Gerbera drones for the attacks – two metres long with a 2.5 metre wingspan, they’re capable of reaching speeds of up to 100 miles per hour and have a maximum range of more than 370 miles. It would be easy for Russia to launch them off ships moored approximately 180 miles off the Italian, French or Spanish coasts and would be capable of causing sufficient damage to at least temporarily close down an airport, port or other critical infrastructure.
Russia, of course, already has an established precedent for conducting a campaign of greyzone drone attacks against Europe. Earlier this month, Germany took the unprecedented step of publicly naming Moscow as being responsible for a spate of drone attacks against Leipzig airport in August, during which an explosive-laden drone was discovered next to a Ukrainian cargo plane.
What makes Russia’s supposed plan to use Gerbera drones against France, Spain or Italy particularly alarming is their size. While the drones used in Leipzig, for example, were small remote-controlled drones the size of a microwave oven, Gerbera drones are considerably larger. While still much lighter, they are only just smaller than the haunting Shahed and Geran drones that Russia regularly sends into Ukraine.
With repeated – sometimes hysterical – warnings about Russian plans to broaden the conflict in Ukraine and escalate against Nato, its apparent aim to target these three Mediterranean countries may appear unlikely. But viewed in the context of a broader desire by Putin to destabilise Europe, sow division in, and weaken the Nato alliance, it makes considerably more sense.
Italy, France and Spain all have important elections taking place next year. Political factions exist in Italy and France that have criticised their governments for supporting Ukraine. Spain, meanwhile, has irked Nato and incurred the wrath of American president Donald Trump for its refusal to commit to increasing defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 in line with the rest of the alliance. Successful attacks on any one of those countries would spread fear and strengthen domestic voices linking their vulnerability to support for Ukraine. The purpose of such attacks would be as much to manipulate the French, Spanish or Italian populations in an anti-Ukraine direction as it would be to damage critical infrastructure.
El Mundo’s report has yet to be independently corroborated. But it would potentially explain why French president Emmanuel Macron felt compelled last week to summon party officials and candidates in next year’s presidential election for an intelligence briefing on the growing Russian threat. ‘The Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and against France has intensified,’ Macron told journalists afterwards. Nevertheless, Italian defence minister Guido Crosetto shot down the newspaper’s report earlier today as ‘unconfirmed’, accusing it of ‘adding fuel to the fire’ during ‘difficult and “nervous” times’.
Whether Russia’s plan to target Italy, France and Spain with drones turns out to be true or unhelpful scaremongering, it is undeniable that the risk to Europe of greyzone attacks from Moscow is growing. Just this morning, Denmark’s defence intelligence service published a new threat assessment in which it outlined its belief that Russia would intensify its hybrid war against the west in the coming months. Whether France, Italy or Spain – or elsewhere – are targeted, this warning should give all of Europe pause for thought.
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