The full-scale war in Ukraine began with fast, armored advances that covered hundreds of miles in weeks. Then drones began finding tanks and other vehicles in their hideouts, destroying them before offensives could get going.
By 2024, both sides had largely given up on armored warfare. A 19-mile-wide “kill zone” now straddles the front line, with drones spotting and striking anything that moves. The front line has barely shifted. Ukraine recently found a way to get tanks back into the fight, raising the prospect of a new phase in the conflict.
But those innovative tactics could be under threat, following interruptions to Ukraine’s use of the Starlink satellite network. Ukraine believes that the (ongoing) restrictions are part of a deliberate effort by the Trump administration to weaken their ability to fight, while the White House denies cutting it deliberately. A report by the Wall Street Journal earlier this week suggests that Starlink’s owner, Elon Musk, may himself have made the decision to curb Kyiv’s access to the technology.
The Trump administration has thrown Putin yet another lifeline
Aside from drones, nothing has changed the character of war as much as Musk’s SpaceX network: 11,000 satellites in low Earth orbit that beam broadband internet to Starlink terminals (a satellite dish and router) on the ground. This simple, robust kit allows units and their headquarters to securely communicate and share data, so they can coordinate offensive and defensive operations.
To get around sanctions, Russian troops bought Starlink terminals through resellers in the Middle East, until Ukraine’s former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, persuaded Musk to block these sanction-busting terminals early this year. Russian forces lost their communications without notice, and Ukraine made the most of the confusion to recapture territory. Russia has since been growing its own “Rassvet” satellite network to achieve the same effect as Starlink.
While the drones around the kill zone are largely controlled through direct radio and fiberoptic cables, Ukraine mounts SpaceX terminals on some, giving them greater range and higher speeds. These mid-range drones can strike up to 155 miles behind the front lines, attacking logistics hubs and headquarters and choking off resupplies to Russian units.
Ukraine spent eight months doing this around the town of Oleksandrivka, starving Russian positions of food, batteries, ammunition and fresh drones. They also mounted phone masts on drones to track Russian positions through signal emissions and hacked into communication networks for additional intelligence, before targeting them with artillery.
With Russian positions and drone crews weakened, Ukrainian infantry filtered into the area. Then Ukrainian tanks rushed forward and fired into Russian positions, breaking the Russian defense and giving Ukrainian infantry the momentum to capture positions, before the tanks pulled back. If Ukraine can repeat this elsewhere, the static frontlines of the last few years could quickly crumble.
But the tactic depends on the SpaceX-enabled mid-range drone strikes. On Wednesday October 14, Ukrainian drones began losing connection and control, meaning offensive and defensive operations were canceled. The same problem affected the Ukrainian interceptors used to shoot down Russian Shahed drones attacking Ukrainian cities, so a higher than usual number of Russian attacks succeeded.
These problems prevent Starlink terminals from moving at speeds of over 100 miles per hour (such as those mounted on mid-range drones and interceptors), which seem to depend on the military version of Starlink, Starshield. Musk was quick to insist that only the Pentagon can restrict Starshield, but reports suggest that he gave Donald Trump the idea to restrict Starshield and that the President gave the order to do so.
Trump claims that Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries are driving up global oil prices, even though it was the President’s own failed attacks on Iran that caused oil prices to jump. It’s possible that someone cut Starlink because they thought it would stop Ukraine from being able to attack the refineries, but because Starlink does not work over Russia, Ukraine instead uses pre-programmed cruise missiles to hit them.
Trump has denied limiting Starlink, but he previously threatened to cut it last year, while trying to coerce Zelensky into a minerals deal. For now, the ongoing restrictions will prevent Ukraine from protecting its cities, recapturing territory or breaking up Russian attacks. On the same day that Russian strikes killed a mother and baby in Kharkiv, Trump said, Russia is “fine on Ukraine. They have not been doing much.”
Other allies are alarmed by America siding with Russia and extorting Ukraine through essential military systems. The UK Ministry of Defence is about to sign a new military satellite deal with the American firm Lockheed Martin, but fears of a Starlink-style cutoff – during a disagreement over something like the defense of the Falkland Islands – should prompt them to reconsider. America has also threatened the EU over European efforts to create its own satellite system, just as Starlink demonstrates why a sovereign capability is essential.
With the Starlink signal cuts, the Trump administration has thrown Putin yet another lifeline, just as Ukraine was building momentum. The cuts also make it less likely that allies will buy any American defense systems, because Washington could turn them off at any moment. Alongside helping Russia to kill more Ukrainians, then, Trump has damaged the American defense industry and achieved another of Putin’s goals: to increase the divide between the US and Europe.
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