It’s the best of times for the Democrats in Texas and the worst of times for the Republicans. James Talarico is the Democratic candidate for the Senate while Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed for a nasty and expensive three-month runoff that will culminate in a runoff election on 26 May. Cornyn has made no secret of his disdain for Paxton, deeming him a ‘dead weight’. Will it be the Alamo for Texas Republicans, their last stand as the Democrats swarm over their defences to reclaim the Lone Star state and the Senate majority itself?
The significance of Talarico’s victory over Jasmine Crockett can hardly be overstated. She has latched onto voter confusion at precincts in Dallas Williamson counties, but her beef seems unlikely to go anywhere. Crockett, the congressional firebrand who, among other things, referred to Texas Governor Greg Abbott as ‘Governor Hot Wheels’ (he has been in wheelchair since he was paralysed in an accident age 26), would have faced rough sledding in a general election. By contrast, the 36-year-old state representative Talarico has become the It Boy of the Democratic party, a preternaturally self-possessed Presbyterian seminarian and former public school teacher who is presumed to transcend the parochial divisions over race, class and gender that have preoccupied the Democrats for years.
Now it is the Republicans who are feuding with one another. For Cornyn, the prospect of a renewed slugfest against the scandal-ridden Paxton could hardly be less welcome, a sign that the Republican base is once more intent, as far as possible, on ousting, whenever and wherever it can, establishment conservatives in favour of populist upstarts, no matter how questionable their actual records may be. Indeed, former Navy Seal Dan Crenshaw, known colloquially as ‘Eyepatch McCain’, lost his seat in Texas’ 2nd District to the ordained minister and businessman Steve Toth. Perhaps Crenshaw’s most distinctive move in 2025 was not legislative but hortatorical, when he was caught on a hot mic vowing to ‘kill’ Tucker Carlson. In the event, his constituents have apparently decided to dispose of his political career.
The real question, as the midterm elections loom large, is as simple as it is obvious: what effect Donald Trump will have upon them? Now that he has made the decision to become The Decider in foreign affairs, he can push for 1) regime change or 2) merely denuding Iran of offensive weapons or 3) or deal with a more tractable Islamic theocracy. Whether Trump’s crusade will have much purchase, though, has Republicans fretting. With gas prices rising and Trump mooting the possibility of sending in ground troops, their apprehensions are more than warranted.
If the war goes south, then many of the Republican candidates who won today may wonder whether it was even worth the candle. Democrats, who are pushing for a war powers resolution, are going on the offensive, highlighting the fact that the administration, for all its bluster about remaking the Middle East, does not appear to have a clear and coherent military plan for victory in Iran. Instead, it has announced a farrago of competing aims, none of which sound even remotely persuasive.
Its latest brainchild is to arm the Kurds, whose leaders Trump called on Sunday, in the hopes that they can help lead an insurrection against the regime. At the same time, Trump will likely push for a military supplemental funding bill above and beyond the $1 trillion that the Pentagon already receives. Before he becomes any more invested in Iran, however, Trump might do well to take cognisance of the political insurrection that appears to be brewing on the home front as he dispenses with his previous ardour for America First and embraces interventionism and regime change abroad.
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