Today marks a hundred days since America and Israel began launching strikes on Iran on February 28. The very next day, Donald Trump told the Atlantic that Iran’s leaders “want to talk,” saying they should have made a deal sooner and that “they played too cute.”
Three days after Trump said this, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Since then, we have been told dozens of times that we are on the brink of a lasting deal between Iran and America, often in the President’s statements on Truth Social. At the end of last month, Axios reported that US and Iranian negotiators had reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum which would reopen the Strait, which simply needed Trump’s sign off.
Since then, the temporary ceasefire which was announced on April 8 has been broken, with Iran and Israel firing volleys of missiles at each other once more. This morning President Trump posted on Truth social that “Israel and Iran must immediately stop ‘shooting.’”
This latest flurry of attacks could be a sign that peace is imminent, that Israel is taking a last chance to do some damage to Iran. Or it could be a sign that there are still too many incentives for regional actors to continue the conflict despite the economic damage that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. Your guess is as good as mine.
What we can say is that we have been on the verge of peace in Iran many times in the past hundred days. Since February 28, Axios, the US fast news publication which has emerged as one of the best-sourced within the Trump administration, have put out, by my count, 16 headlines which suggest that a peace deal is imminent.
- February 28: Exclusive: Trump floats ‘off ramps’ after attacking Iran
- March 2: Trump says war against Iran moving ‘substantially ahead’ of schedule
- March 9: Trump says Iran war will be over ‘very soon’
- March 11: Trump tells Axios there’s there’s ‘practically nothing left’ to target in Iran
- March 13: Scoop: Trump claimed in G7 call that Iran is ‘about to surrender’
- March 20: Trump considers ‘winding down’ Iran war without opening Hormuz Strait
- March 26: Pentagon prepares for massive ‘final blow’ of Iran war
- March 27: Rubio tells allies Iran war will continue 2-4 more weeks
- April 1: U.S and Iran discussing ceasefire for reopening strait, official say
- April 5: Trump to Axios: Iran deal possible by Tues., otherwise ‘I am blowing up everything’
- April 17: Trump tells Axios he expects Iran deal ‘in a day or two’
- April 28: Trump claims Iran told U.S. it wants Strait of Hormuz open ASAP
- May 6: Exclusive: U.S and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say
- May 23: Exclusive: What’s inside the Iran deal Trump is close to signing
- May 24: White House says Iran Deal could take days
- May 28: Scoop: U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump’s final approval, officials say
A New York Times analysis of bets made on the betting website Polymarket suggested that a group of users were timing large bets around announcements around Trump’s announcements, including the ceasefire which was announced on April 7, suggesting that some insiders in the Trump administration may be profiting from inside knowledge about events. Fortune has also reported that a brokerage account with Trump’s name has been hedging against a short war by buying gold, treasuries and cash.
The merging of personal financial interests, betting markets and longstanding geopolitical rivalries creates a very confused and messy picture. Whether or not Trump’s announced desire to stop fighting between Iran and Israel is now sincere or another play on the financial markets is, to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld, an unknown unknown.
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