Last month, a mysterious drone swarm led to a lockdown at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. Nothing was damaged and none of the 40 B-52 bombers or their cruise missiles were hit. At least not this time.
But modern war no longer starts with an open attack. Instead we see hybrid actions: cyberattacks, information and psychological operations, GPS disruptions, damage to undersea communication cables and, increasingly, drone incursions into military sites and critical infrastructure. There is rarely a formal declaration. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the largest war in Europe since the Second World War, was labelled a “special military operation.” Even before the invasion, Russia launched thousands of Orlan-10 drone operations over Ukraine, monitoring Ukrainian troop movements and jamming communications.
The incidents on American soil undermine a basic assumption that has shaped military thinking for decades
That is why the incursion at Barksdale should be seen as a serious signal, not an isolated anomaly. In fact, it’s happened before. In 2023, drone swarms violated restricted airspace over Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, for 17 nights. F-22 stealth fighters had to be moved to nearby bases. We still don’t know who launched these swarms or the one at Barksdale.
Modern drone warfare tends to follow a pattern. It starts with probing: testing detection systems, response times and coordination. This is followed by analysis: identifying vulnerabilities and blind spots in the defense of target sites. Only after that come strikes, which, depending on the tactics, may take the form of isolated stealth incursions or large-scale attacks designed to overwhelm air defense systems.
The incidents on American soil undermine a basic assumption that has shaped military thinking for decades: that distance from an adversary’s territory provides reliable protection. Long-range strike drones that can fly up to 1,200 miles are already in use in the war between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East. They carry significant payloads – munitions and surveillance technology – and can be produced at scale. What’s more, drone models are becoming more sophisticated with each iteration.
Operation Spiderweb, in which Ukrainian drones seriously damaged a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, demonstrated this shift. The bombers were based in Siberia, 2,700 miles from Ukraine. The incident at Barksdale may have been a warning to the US that an adversary is capable of a similar attack.
Such attacks create a challenge for Western militaries. Traditional air defense systems are not suited to counter these kinds of long-range stealth incursions. Nor can they deal with vast numbers of small, cheap targets flying at low altitude. It is not economically viable to use Patriot missiles, which cost around $4 million each, to intercept swarms of cheap drones.
Iran’s approach – striking both military and civilian infrastructure – dramatically expands the area that needs protecting. In terms of cost-efficiency and military effectiveness, interceptor drones are one of the most promising defensive tools. “Since the beginning of the war, we have been receiving daily requests from the Middle East, whereas previously it might have been once or twice a month,” said Jens Holzapfel, a director at the Swedish firm Nordic Air Defense, which builds anti-drone systems. Their main model is the Kreuger-100XR, also a propeller-based drone, which intercepts attacking vehicles then explodes, destroying both.
Ukraine and Russia are scaling these kinds of anti-drone capability rapidly. It is entirely possible that future wars will be won by those who can mass-produce and deploy simple, effective drone and anti-drone systems. A key factor behind this rapid progress is the short feedback loop between the battlefield and manufacturers, combined with relatively low levels of bureaucracy, allowing such weapons to be deployed quickly. Ukraine now has more than 500 drone manufacturers producing around a million units per year.
Ukraine is a battlefield. But it is also a laboratory, a place where new approaches, systems and tactics are tested in real conditions. The events at Langley or Barksdale highlight something that has become apparent during the war: drone warfare has fundamentally changed. That is why the incidents at Barksdale and Langley are so concerning. In today’s world, the moment a war begins is blurred. The start of a third world war will likely be argued over by historians, years after it ends. But it is entirely possible that it has already begun.
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