First of all, it’s farewell to Chuck Norris, the action movie star of such Hollywood classics (Generous – Ed.) as Delta Force II. The man who made beards fashionable, long before David Beckham dreamed of designer stubble, passed away at the venerable age of 86. Norris was one of those actors who bonded with politicians, bringing his tough guy chops to a bunch of Republicans, including Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. When he visited Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli PM said he could stand his security people down now that Chuck had arrived. Pity really, since he’s the kind of fellow who would have been sent to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
There’s not much going on today, so here’s what we learned this week:
Donald Trump has to win the war quickly or bring down the world economy.
This war is probably working for Israel since every day that goes by further degrades the ability of the mullahs of Tehran to launch ballistic missiles or develop nuclear weapons. However, it is now also damaging Donald Trump’s popularity severely with his MAGA base. More worryingly, experts are beginning to warn that if the conflict goes on for much longer, the shock of oil price rises could outstrip 1973, 2022 and the financial crash of 2007/8, and that we might have something akin to 1929 on our hands. That may explain why Trump is considering invading Iran’s Kharg Island to force it to open the Strait of Hormuz and get the oil flowing. That should help calm things down…
The war won’t save Keir Starmer.
The PM has curried favour with his party by opposing Trump, earning not only the President’s opprobrium but fresh threats that the US will stop helping Ukraine. It’s a strategic headache for the Prime Minister – not to mention that the soaring cost of both energy and borrowing as a result of the war will likely have a catastrophic effect on the cost of living. It’s worth remembering that not one western government in place during the 1973 oil price shock, or the Covid-19 pandemic, won re-election afterwards.
The Labour leadership contest has already begun.
I’m not totally convinced that Starmer faces a challenge after May’s local elections. Labour is hopeless at defenestrating its leaders and some MPs feel more warmly to the PM after his sotto voce Love Actually moment over the war. My Labour snouts suggest a challenge may come after September, when elections to the NEC are likely to hand more power to the left of the party. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, will no longer be the chairman and it will be easier for Andy Burnham to return to parliament. However, Angela Rayner and Burnham both broke cover this week to condemn Mahmood’s plans to reform indefinite leave to remain. They object to the rise in the length of time it will take to get permanent leave to remain – from five to ten years – but also the choice to make it retrospective. Problem is, if you don’t do that it’s a pretty meaningless measure. After a brief wobble from No. 10, Mahmood seems to have Starmer held to ransom, but it’s yet another example of Labour MPs being totally out of touch with the country. Polls show 70 per cent of Labour’s own voters back the reforms, along with half of Green voters. One pollster messaged me this week: ‘They are mad. The consequence of the soft left will be Reform.’
Nigel Farage is getting serious.
Finally, as our cover story this week revealed, Reform is gearing up to win the local elections and then announce more of its plans for government afterwards. Farage does not want to bombard voters with policy, but he has done a lot to professionalise the party. When Zia Yusuf, his home affairs spokesman, recommended a policy to kick out all illegal immigrants, he didn’t ask whether it was politically effective, but whether it was realistic. ‘I might have to deliver it,’ he said. That probably explains why Reform announced today that Farage has stopped recording personalised video messages on the Cameo platform. They say it’s for ‘security reasons’. OK…
Downing Street is using national security to spare the PM’s blushes.
After two leaks to The Spectator in two weeks from the National Security Council, the Cabinet Secretary, Antonia Romeo, has launched a formal leak inquiry to try to identify my sources. So much for my paean of praise for her appointment. Nothing I wrote compromised national security. In revealing how Starmer was outmanoeuvred by Ed Miliband it merely compromised the PM’s credibility. I didn’t see people complaining when Tory cabinet committees leaked like sieves in years past.
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