All good Tories are wary of that word ‘inevitable’. But few things were more foreseeable in politics than James Cleverly running for Mayor of London. The Essex MP will quit Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet in order to stand for City Hall in 2028. Writing for the Sunday Times, Cleverly says he needs to ‘be free to speak about every aspect of London’s future and concentrate fully on winning this race’. The capital, he suggests, ‘needs more than an administrator’, in order to ‘rebuild its reputation and make it, once again, the best place in the world to live, work, invest and build a business.’
It is little secret in Tory circles that Cleverly covets the role of mayor. Having held two of the Great Offices of State and failed in his bid for the Conservative leadership, there are few prizes left to be won in Westminster. He returned to the shadow cabinet last year but his heart was never thought to be in his brief of shadow housing secretary. A telling sign perhaps was his trusted former aide Callum Price choosing this summer to join the team of Mel Stride rather than return to Cleverly’s side. Various MPs report that he has been canvassing opinions on his chances in the Tea Room. ‘He’ll be a great candidate,’ says one. ‘Shows the party is taking London seriously.’
He returned to the shadow cabinet last year but his heart was never thought to be in his brief of shadow housing secretary.
Cleverly immediately becomes the front-runner for the nomination. He is, as one admiring senior Tory in London puts it, ‘Well liked, experienced, good on the media and can connect with London Conservatives.’ He previously served as a member of the Greater London Assembly in 2008 and 2016, in which capacity he drove through a difficult reorganisation of the capital’s fire services. Among some Conservative colleagues, there was a feeling at times that Cleverly was not across the detail in various briefs he held. Yet he can plausibly claim to be more experienced and tested than any of the three mayors who have held the post since its creation in 2000.
His bid sets up an entertaining clash with Laila Cunningham, the Reform nominee. Unlike in Westminster, where First Past the Post can split the right-wing bloc, the mayoralty will be contested under the Supplementary Vote. As long as Cleverly can beat Cunningham, he stands a decent chance of beating Labour. Given the recent local elections, where the Tories trounced Reform across the capital, this should be achievable by a well-known figure on the liberal Brexit wing of the party.
Badenoch is understood to be supportive, with a member of her team praising Cleverly as ‘a formidable politician’ who will ‘out-campaign’ Sadiq Khan. An additional spot has now opened up in the shadow cabinet for her to reward a loyalist come the long-awaited reshuffle. ‘We’re considering our options,’ says one source close to the Tory leader.
It is not yet clear whether Sadiq Khan will run for an unprecedented fourth term. The incumbent mayor has served since 2016 and won two further terms fairly easily. In his last victory, he was a significant drag on the party ticket, winning by less than ten points at a time when Labour was polling a 20-point margin in the capital. Various Labour MPs, frustrated in the House of Commons, are eyeing up taking over the mantle in two years’ time. Dawn Butler and David Lammy, the recently-defenestrated justice secretary, are among the leading contenders.
In a crowded field, Cleverly going early looks like a sensible move. After a series of underwhelming picks in 2016, 2020 and 2024, he is well placed to be a respectable choice for the Conservatives in 2028. Given his status as the Home Secretary under which part of the so-called ‘Boriswave’ occurred, it poses an interesting test for how much the membership is willing to stand by its record in government. Already, some supporters of rival candidates are getting in touch. ‘Internal and external polling shows that a 2024 government minister running in London is not welcomed by voters’, says one backer of Festus Akinbusoye.
Genial and popular, Cleverly will nevertheless require a strong team if he is to beat the powerful London labour machine. ‘He does need to get people around him who are willing to fight fire with fire’, says one party source. If he does this then he could do what only Boris Johnson managed before: turn London into a Tory city once more.
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