Kemi Badenoch often likes to claim that the Conservative Party is her ‘family’ and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that members feel the same way. After four days in Birmingham, one of the most obvious conclusions is just how happy and united the party is behind her, at both an elite and activist level. Twelve months after a somewhat underwhelming conference, redeemed by an impressive speech on the final day, this year’s jamboree has seen much a confident and consistent outing by Badenoch. At the Conservative Home reception on Sunday, she was practically purring, cracking jokes about Andy Burnham’s ‘stamina’ and being able to ‘sit back and lie there’. There was the occasional clunky media performance, such as her somewhat unsatisfactory answers to LBC on a British ‘iron dome’. Overall though, her team will be happy with this outing.
As my colleague Isabel Hardman notes, she has been helped this year by the party having a series of original flourishes. The ‘Birmingham tapesty’ was inspired, playing, as it did, on the monstrous egos of the lobby by deigning to include only fourteen, somewhat flattering, depictions of some of Britain’s leading journalists. ‘They all keep tweeting it out’ crowed one aide, delightedly. The product of Marcus Natale and the evil geniuses of the Conservative Research Department, it served as useful ‘dead cat’ too, directing conversation to the failures of the Labour government, rather than the lack of business stands highlighted by one ex-MP. An accompanying video by Alex Burghart, the party’s in-house historian, offered an amusing reminder of the kind of ‘Toryism which dare not speak its name’ which has traditionally aided Conservative fortunes. ‘We need to lean into the Tory historian thing’, remarked one candidate, reflecting on the party’s traditional basis with the National Trust and Church of England.
‘We need to lean into the Tory historian thing’, remarked one candidate.
Other innovations included Victoria Hewson, the party’s head of policy development, holding a Sunday briefing for free-market and centre-right think-tanks to explain the party’s direction – a useful way of swapping ideas and securing a degree of buy-in. ‘Why on earth weren’t we doing this in government?’ asked one attendee. Badenoch’s 100-page The Right Way was well-received across the party, offering a kind of anchor for the storms the Conservatives expect to weather should they end up in office. Sadly, plans by the defence team to erect a wheeled self-propelled howitzer in Birmingham hit the bureaucratic buffers – a drone had to suffice instead.
Several big names were wheeled out on stage too, with Jeremy Clarkson undoubtedly the most impressive. Badenoch deserves credit here, having developed a relationship with the Top Gear star over their shared opposition to the ‘family farms’ tax’. The two are understood to have swapped texts, with the Tory leader visiting his farm and developing something of a rapport. The party was careful to present Clarkson’s Q&A with Vicky Atkins, the Environment spokesman, as not an explicit endorsement – something they did earlier this year with entrepreneur James Dyson’s attendance at a fundraiser too. Clarkson and Atkins’ chat attracted 150,000 views in the first 24 hours: a reflection on his potency as a message-carrier in a fragmented media and electoral landscape. Badenoch and her team have thought carefully about different ways to cut through. One way is on championing media freedom, with the Tory leader making an impromptu speech at the Times reception, praising the investigative journalism of Gabriel Pogrund and the Sunday Times ‘Insight’ team.
Among those happiest from this conference are the Whips’ Office, who have enjoyed one of their quietest conferences for many years. ‘As long as the shagging is kept inside the parliamentary party rather than with the staff, we don’t mind’, reflected one involved. Mercifully, there has been no repeat of an infamous incident a few years’ prior when one amorous couple were spotted in the street up against the windows of the Hyatt Regency. Colour, instead, has come from the party’s youth wing, currently hosting its first national election for chairman in more than a decade. All three candidates were served before the conference with a verbal warning about conduct, blue-on-blue attack and the misuse of party resources that happened in the first week of the campaign, with multiple complaints received by CCHQ. Media had to be shut out of the hustings, with journalists blamed for ‘interference and stirring things up’, according to messages seen by The Spectator.
One man certainly being blamed for ‘stirring things up’ is Robert Jenrick, the exiled onetime crown price of the party. Sacked as Shadow Justice Secretary just nine months ago, the party is now falling over itself in its attempts to make him an ‘unperson.’ Richard Holden, the Shadow Transport Secretary and a onetime Jenrick supporter, joked at one event, ‘You must go see the Birmingham Tapestry: it has a little Robert Jenrick, little because of the jabs – it is a shame there isn’t a jab for ego.’ Jack Rankin, another former Jenrick backer, has been dubbed ‘Jack Russell’ by colleagues, such has been his enthusiasm for following Badenoch around this conference as her parliamentary private secretary.
With her position secure, some in high command are trying to position the party as more of a team, as demonstrated by the front of the party brochure. Katie Lam, the new housing spokesman, had another impressive conference on the stage, fringe and the bars of Birmingham too, winning the battle of the DJs at the TikTok party. ‘She’s like walking gender conversion therapy’, remarked one rhapsodic member of the LGBTories. Jacob Rees-Mogg was a returning star too, fresh from his verbal spar with American commentator Tucker Carlson. ‘It’s a reminder that the “nasty party” really isn’t that nasty compared to some of our transatlantic cousins,’ observed an MP. Kevin Hollinrake, the party chairman, was in his element, making the most of Labour’s woes by appearing in a cardboard cutout sipping a pint with his black lab. ‘Isn’t it nice to have a conference with the same chairman two years in a row?’ he joked on Monday night.
Rebecca Paul and Nick Timothy, the culture and justice shadow ministers, impressed with a punchier focus on some meaty cultural issues too. At the 92 Group drinks, attended by the latter, historian David Starkey called for Theresa May, Timothy’s former boss, to be stripped of the whip. ‘I wish the cameras had captured Nick’s face at the moment’ said one attendee. One little-noticed fact about the recent Tory reshuffle is that 13 of the 28 strong shadow cabinet are now women. Gender balance is not something Tory women tend to talk or care much about but it could help the party boost its appeal to female voters.
The economy, defence and welfare dominated as themes. But what was striking was the absence of so many of the personalities and issues which have consumed the party’s focus in the past decade. There was no real faction or organising for Johnsonites, Trussites or Sunakites with terms like ‘Net Zero’, ‘Northern Powerhouse’ and ‘Levelling Up’ largely confined to history. In one sense this can be read as a positive, with the party moving back to its traditional centre-right priorities. But it can be seen too as the Tories unwilling or unable at this stage to win back voters who backed them in 2017 and 2019. There was just one event apiece on the north and migration: corporate money dictates commercial priorities but to some it felt that the party was content to remain a predominantly affluent southern-based party. ‘There’s no real effort to win back the old working class Tory vote’ admitted one councillor.
Reform UK, so dominant a year ago, was largely absent from the conversation – with the exception of defence. James Cartlidge made a big pitch here, bashing his rivals for their stance on Ukraine and failure, still, to have selected a spokesman. To the relief of Tory aides, Nigel Farage’s party confined its spoiler tactics to hiring a bus driving around Birmingham, labelling the Tories as clowns in a circus. ‘It’s not beyond Aaron Lobo’s talents to put on an actual circus and have it right outside,’ said one advisor. A note of caution ought to be sounded by Badenoch’s invocation of William Hague’s ‘Common Sense Revolution’. The former Foreign Secretary spent four long years in Opposition, toiling away, working 16-hour days – only to win a total of one extra seat at the end of it. On Thursday, it is not implausible that Restore Britain could outpoll one or both of Reform and the Conservatives in the Holborn and St Pancras election.
Party conferences tend to be, as my editor Michael Gove once said, ‘holidays from reality.’ Next week, that holiday ends when parliament returns. An awful autumn now awaits Andy Burnham: the Budget, ten year plan, Veterans’ Bill and the Milburn review. ‘How much longer can he keep running from reality?’ asked one MP when they read that the Spending Review is likely to be deferred to late 2027. With proper ideological battle lines being drawn between Burnham and Badenoch, the Conservatives believe that they will benefit from a sober, serious debate this winter. ‘Ultimately, the facts of life are conservative’, says one MP. ‘The question in British politics is whether the state should spend more or less’, adds a senior aide. ‘We think it should be less: there cannot be any more.’
For now, the Tory tribe is in hopeful spirits. Several IEDs that might have exploded like candidate selection did not detonate at this conference. Much like Keith Joseph’s work fifty years prior, The Right Way enables MPs to finish each other’s sentences by saying, as Thatcher did, ‘this is what we believe in.’ One peer reflected to me last night that the true significance of this conference might only be revealed with the passage of time. Were there to be an election next year then it will be seen as a missed opportunity. But if this parliament runs its full course then team Badenoch will view it as an important step on the road to recovery.
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