Three tips for Longchamp and Ascot

The big race in Paris this weekend, the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, is almost certain to be run on much faster ground than usual, possibly the equivalent of ‘good to firm’ in Britain.

That will be music to the ears of connections of the two horses at the top of the market: the French-trained Daryz and the Newmarket-trained Maltese Cross.

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The former won this race last year on soft ground, when put up in this column at 14-1, but his talented trainer Francis-Henri Graffard is convinced his charge is better on quicker ground.

Drawn in stall five in a race in which low numbers are favoured, the four-year-old colt will be hard to beat on Sunday (3:05 p.m. UK time) but at odds of 7-4 or less he is not for me.

I had intended to put up Maltese Cross for the Arc provided he got a single-figure draw in this 16-runner field but stall 11 makes it difficult for his jockey, Tom Marquand.

Maltese Cross has only been beaten once in five starts this season and that was when, on unsuitably soft ground at Epsom, he finished second to Christmas Day in the Betfred Derby. I would love to see him win for trainer William Haggas, but 5-1 each-way, given his poor draw, looks no value.

Instead, I am going to back another British-trained horse, KALPANA from Andrew Balding’s Hampshire yard. This four-year filly was a disappointing seventh of 17 runners in the Arc a year ago from a double-figure draw. However, she is better than ever this season winning two Group 1 and one Group 3 races from her four starts.

With her jockey Colin Keane riding better than ever and coming from stall 6, Kalpana looks sure to figure in the finish. Back her 1 point each way at 13-2 with William Hill, paying three places.

Low numbers are also favoured in the big sprint on Sunday, the Grade 1 Prix de l’Abbaye (1:50 p.m.) but the draw for that race is not known at the time of writing. So I will leave that race alone, especially as I am trying to wean myself off backing in five and six-furlong races.

If they were to be lucky enough to get low draws, the British-trained runners Rumstar and Time For Sandals would be interesting in the l’Abbaye but neither is at an attractive enough price to back them now without knowing their stall berths.

All in all, I have no doubt that ‘Les Perones‘ and other readers of this column who are lucky enough to be travelling to Paris this weekend are in for a huge treat, with quality racing in the loveliest of surroundings.

On Ascot’s straight course, tomorrow’s BetMGM Challenge Cup (3:35 p.m.) over seven furlongs is the sort of race I can’t resist. Of the outsiders, Great Acclaim and Hawksbill look overpriced, although the former needs to re-find his strong early-season form.

However, I am going to back just one horse in the race. RIVER KING remains on a nice official mark of 95 despite some big runs this season, including when fifth over course and distance behind Mezcala in the Buckingham Stakes at the royal meeting in June.

The four-year-old gelding has only run once since then, probably needing the run after a lengthy break from the track when fourth in a Doncaster handicap last month. Back River King 1 point each way with one of the many bookmakers offering both 10-1 and five places.

The favourite for the race is the William Haggas trained Thunder Call who won impressively over course and distance last month. However, he is up 8lbs in the official ratings for that race and odds of 11-4 or less look far too short in a handicap of this nature.

Since I am not backing anything in the l’Abbaye, I am going to allow myself one bet in a sprint this weekend and that is at Ascot tomorrow: FLUORESCENCE in the BetMGM Rous Stakes (1:50 p.m.).

Trainer Ed Bethell’s four-year-old filly travelled strongly when winning a listed race at Ayr, with her ears pricked, by a comfortable three lengths. That was on soft ground but she has strong form on quicker ground too.

Flourescence has a bit to find on official ratings but I love an improving filly and so back her 1 point each way at 15-2 with either bet365 or Sky Bet, both paying four places.

I do have a fancy for the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on Champions Day on 17 October but I am going to keep my powder dry until I can establish whether the horse is an intended runner. Watch this space in a week’s time for that anticipated tip and a look at the Newmarket card a week tomorrow, which includes the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch.

Pending:

1 point each way Fluorescence at 15-2 for the BetMGM Rous Stakes, paying 1/5^th odds, 4 places.

1 point each way River King at 10-1 for the BetMGM Challenge Cup, paying 1/5^th odds, 5 places.

1 point each way Kalpana at 13-2 for the Arc, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.

1 point each way Gooloogong at 33-1 for the Godolphin Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.

Last weekend: – 5.7 points.

1 point each way Miss Miniver at 13-2 for the Rockfel Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 4^th. + 0.3 points.

1 point each way Hucklesbrook at 7-1 for the Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap, paying 1/5^th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Hard Endeavor at 40-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

1 point each way Asmen Warrior at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5^th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

2026 flat season running total: + 29.884 points.

2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points on all tips.