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The Spectator

Tuesday

The Spectator

What Petraeus will tell Washington

No one is more crucial to the future of the Coalition effort in Iraq than David Petraeus, the US commander there. Petraeus is seen by hawks as this war’s Ulysses S. Grant, the man who can turn around the mistakes of his predecessors and forge a victory from unpromising beginnings. This New York Times profile gives you a good taste of the pressures on him and the nature of the man. Petraeus’s testimony on Capitol Hill in September on the state of the war will be crucial in determining if Congress continues to fund the war. Interestingly, it seems that Petraeus will concentrate on the consequences of withdrawal as much as the progress that the surge is making.

Monday

The Spectator

And now the end is near | 13 August 2007

Watching the Bush-Rove conference, it was impossible not to feel that this was the end of an era. The president admitted he soon be gone too; telling Rove “I'll be on the road behind you here in a little bit.” While both Rove and Bush were clearly moved by the moment. Rove’s departure signals that the Bush administration is done on domestic policy. The debate over whether he did Bush more harm than good will rumble onto into the history books. Indeed, what appeared like Rove’s greatest triumph—taking back the Senate in 2002 and increasing the number of Republican seats in the House—actually sowed the seeds for many of the problems that Bush is now reaping. The display of political muscle in that campaign was as brutal as it was effective.

The Spectator

Have we turned away from the emotionalism of the Diana moment?

As the 10th anniversary of Diana’s death approaches we’re going to spend a lot of time debating whether or not the public reaction to her death ushered in a new, more emotionally open Britain or whether it was a mawkish display of grief which we all ought to be rather embarrassed about. As Jonathan Freedland points out in The Guardian there’s a political dimension to this question: “Tony Blair added to the electoral mandate he had gained on May 1 a kind of emotional mandate, forging a bond with the nation that Sunday morning when he correctly intuited the public reaction to the death of the princess - a connection that kept him riding high until the Iraq war.

The Spectator

Prezza’s tale

I am almost certainly in a minority of one on this, but I suspect that John Prescott’s memoirs will be a lot more interesting than people are expecting. On all the Blair retrospective programmes, it was noticeable how frank Prescott was about how bad things had got between Blair and Brown. I also can’t help but wonder if Prescott, who is clearly--and understandably--irked by the way he’s depicted as an incomprehensible oaf with an excess of libido, might want to show just how much he had to do behind the scenes to keep the show on the road. Anyway, my question is what will the opening line of Prescott’s memoirs be? Do leave your suggestions in the comments. My only hope is that it doesn’t involve bicycles and the 11 plus.

The Spectator

Heathrow needs more runways

The case for Heathrow getting a third runway is overwhelming. It is mad that the world’s third busiest airport in terms of passenger numbers only has two runways while Amsterdam’s Schipol airport, 12th on the list, has five and Charles De Gaulle in Paris, seventh, and Barajas in Madrid, 13th, have four each. On the green front, surely the fact that planes wouldn’t have to circle London for an age before landing due a the lack of landing slots would off-set much of the increase in emissions that would come from there being more flights in and out of the airport?

The Spectator

‘Bush’s brain’ leaves the White House

If you want to get an idea of how important Karl Rove was to George W. Bush imagine if Peter Mandelson, Philip Gould and Alastair Campbell had all been rolled into one person who advised Tony Blair. In some ways, even this doesn’t do Rove justice as he had been with Bush long before he blipped onto the national political radar; they first met back in 1973. Rove memorably described the encounter to Newsweek thus: "I'm there with the keys and this guy comes striding in wearing jeans, cowboy boots and a bomber jacket," he recalls. "He had this aura." It was political love at first sight. There has always been an element of the nerd and the jock in the relationship between the two men, exemplified by Rove’s acceptance of the nickname “Turd Blossom.

The Spectator

Karl Rove resigns

Karl Rove, the architect of President Bush’s two election victories, is resigning from the White House at the end of the month. Rove was convinced that he could re-align US politics and create a permanent Republican governing majority. But, partly through his own missteps, Rove has blown that chance. In many ways, he has never recovered from the toll that the inquiry in to the leaking of Valerie Plame’s name, where he was repeatedly questioned, took on his effectiveness. PS Do read this Josh Green piece on why Rove failed.

Sunday

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What happens when you are down

When you are ten points down in the polls everything you do is seen through that prism. So whenever the Tories announce a policy or talk about a topic, the media examine it for evidence of whether or not David Cameron is trying to shore up his right-wing or not. Everyone is looking to see if Cameron will follow Hague and Howard and tack back to the right if the polls continue to go against him.   So, news-reports—and Labour’s response--to the Redwood led economic competitiveness policy group report have concentrated not on its substance, the best analysis of which comes in the Sunday Telegraph, but on the extent to which it is designed to reassure traditionalists.

The Spectator

Why we must end forced marriage

Damian Green, the Tory Immigration spokesman, sets out how the Tories plan to end forced marriages in an op-ed in The Observer today. There are some good suggestions in it, including the idea that anyone who is going to marry abroad should have to name the person they are going to wed before leaving the country. This would stop young girls from only being told that they are to be married once they have left the country. Personally, I’d also like to see the legal age for UK citizens marrying abroad raised to, say, twenty-one. Ending forced marriage is crucial to demonstrating that all UK citizens—regardless of gender, race or creed—have equal rights.

The Spectator

The Brown bounce becomes the Brown boom

Gordon Brown has restored Labour’s fortunes to pre-Iraq levels, according to a YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Times. The poll puts Labour on 42, the Conservatives 32 and the Lib Dems 14. The internals of the poll don’t offer much comfort for the Tories either: 55% of voters think David Cameron is doing a bad job as Tory leader and 51% believe he would be a bad PM while 65% say Brown is doing a good job. 57% also think that Brown has got his relationship with Bush about right. (The numbers on Iraq and Afghanistan are depressing for a hawk like me, with a majority favouring withdrawal within a year in both cases.

Saturday

The Spectator

Letters to the Editor | 11 August 2007

In his interesting and positive account of Gordon Brown’s visit to America, Matthew d’Ancona reveals that Brown’s thinking on the causes of terrorism has ‘shifted’ since the recent so-called Islamist ‘doctors’ plot’ to set off car bombs in the West End and at Glasgow airport. Why’s Brown so slow? Sir: In his interesting and positive account of Gordon Brown’s visit to America, Matthew d’Ancona reveals that Brown’s thinking on the causes of terrorism has ‘shifted’ since the recent so-called Islamist ‘doctors’ plot’ to set off car bombs in the West End and at Glasgow airport.

The Spectator

Blue Saturday

I do not know whether, as was so often claimed, Tony Wilson, who has died aged 57, was a genius. But, as music mogul, club entrepreneur, loudmouth and zealous Mancunian, he was certainly one of the most important and remorseless figures in British popular culture of the past 30 years. Immortalised by Steve Coogan's performance in the film 24 Hour Party People, Wilson was a jobbing Granada TV presenter who also had a passion for pop. As a musical Svengali, he is rivalled only by Epstein and McLaren, and he was more prolific than both.

The Spectator

The disease and us

Given the boost in the opinion polls enjoyed by Gordon Brown following the recent floods, a cynic might wonder whether the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Surrey has been staged in order to give the Prime Minister an excuse to break off his holiday in Dorset and earn brownie points by taking control of a national crisis while David Cameron (who has since called off his own holiday) was lounging around on a Breton beach. That, we concede, is far-fetched, but it is not wrong to wonder whether the nation’s reaction to foot-and-mouth — which is rarely fatal in animals and causes no human symptoms whatsoever — is not a little out of proportion to the threat it poses.

Friday

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Football’s back

The football season kicks off tomorrow and with England so far on the back foot in the cricket that they’re in danger of stepping on their stumps, it will be a welcome distraction. For what it’s worth, here are a few predictions—do leave yours in the comments. Manchester United will play fantastic football but won’t win the title. Across the road, City will start poorly but end up doing better under Sven Goran Eriksson than anyone is expecting and finish in the top half. Roy Keane’s Sunderland will, and as Newcastle fan this pains me to write, have a good season and finish in the top 7. Liverpool’s Marcus Babel will be the pick of the Premiership’s new arrivals. Spurs will flatter to deceive again.

The Spectator

Ashley’s Ashes

Simon Barnes has a lovely tribute to the retiring England spinner Ashley Giles in this morning’s Times. Giles had a bit of a rough press as he was nearly always used in purely negative ways by his captain. While he irritated the purists as he wasn’t a great spinner of the ball. But, as Barnes, points out England wouldn’t have won the Ashes in 2005 without him. Few small innings have been as important as Giles’s at Trent Bridge in 2005. England were collapsing chasing a mere 129 to win. The Australians had opened up every old English wound and looked to set to snatch the unlikeliest of victories and keep hold of the Ashes. But Giles would not yield. By sheer willpower he kept Warne at bay before scampering the winning runs.

The Spectator

A healthy crunch

It seems the silly season is extending to financial markets. I have yet to hear a convincing explanation about how the credit crunch is supposed to be such a disaster for the companies quoted in London and New York - yes, its bad news for American homeowners and a few of the more speculative private equity deals. But we need these credit squeezes to make sure we don’t repeat the mistake of Asia in 1998 and have asset prices pumped up to ridiculous levels by cheap debt. Isn’t this the kind of weeding we need in a healthy stock market? And as Lombard Street research powerfully argues here stock markets are now looking rather cheap by historical standards. Braver souls than me may consider this the time to buy.

The Spectator

How long can Brown have it both ways on relations with the US?

Gerard Baker has a great column in The Times this morning about how Gordon Brown is trying to play it both ways on relations with America. Baker dubs it the bat’s piss strategy, in memory of the Monty Python sketch of that name. But as Baker notes there will come a time when Brown will have to choose between playing to the domestic gallery and the strategic relationship with Washington. Indeed, it is a mistake to think that whoever succeeds Bush will adopt a foreign policy that the likes of Mark Malloch Brown will approve of. Do read the whole of Baker’s piece and enjoy this wonderful quote that he has from a senior US official: “Brown does rather give the impression he was born in a suit and tie, doesn’t he?

Thursday

The Spectator

What Bush almost said about Iraq

George W. Bush’s speech in May 2003 declaring major combat operations in Iraq over while a banner behind him proclaimed “mission accomplished” was, with the benefit of hindsight, unfortunate at best. (Even at the time it was clear that the fighter pilot-style entrance was a little excessive.) But Bush’s words could have been so much worse. Apparently, his chief speechwriter had drafted the following for him: “The sirens of Baghdad are quiet. The desert has returned to silence. The Battle of Iraq is over, and the United States and our allies have prevailed.” One dreads to think how these words would have been hung round Bush, and every other Iraq supporter’s, neck if the president had actually delivered them.

The Spectator

Are diversity and solidarity compatible?

Robert Putnam’s new work on diversity is sure to set the cat amongst the pigeons. The Boston Globe summarises the findings of The Bowling Alone author thus: “the greater the diversity in a community, the fewer people vote and the less they volunteer, the less they give to charity and work on community projects. In the most diverse communities, neighbors trust one another about half as much as they do in the most homogenous settings.” This research bolsters the argument that David Goodhart made a few years back about the tensions between ever-growing diversity and the welfare state. But I suspect that diversity is not actually at the root of these problems.

The Spectator

Look who’s coming to dinner

The Bush clan will be gathering in their New England retreat this weekend and they will be joined, as Irwin Stelzer hinted they would be, by Nicolas Sarkozy, who is also holidaying in New England. Sarkozy is pulling off the opposite trick to Gordon Brown. While Brown has distanced himself stylistically from Bush but not substantively, Sarkozy is playing buddy buddy without changing anything other than the atmospherics of French policy towards America. Sarkozy has carried this off with even more élan than Brown. It is amazing to find the same people who used to think that France was a dirty word now praising its president and holding him up as a model to the Republican party.