The Spectator

Saturday

The Spectator

Change must still be the message

The great paradox of the Tory party is that its predicament in recent years reflects not failure, but success. For 18 years it was in government, for 11 of them under one of the most influential prime ministers in history. The Conservatives dominated the 20th century: Austen Chamberlain and William Hague were the only two party leaders in those triumphant 100 years not to reach No. 10. So it is scarcely surprising that the Tory movement, in its DNA, believes the default position in this country to be a Conservative government.

Friday

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What you should do if you can’t see Atonement this weekend

Cinema goers will all be planning to go to see Atonement this weekend: I know I am. But if you are defeated by the queues, which threaten to be of English Patient/Shakespeare in Love proportions, do go and see Knocked Up instead. If ever a film was let down by its title it is this one. Clearly marketed for the audience that loved American Pie and US gross-out comedy, this is actually a very sophisticated film which brilliantly explores the gender gap and uses an old and unremarkable plotline – beautiful woman falls pregnant by unattractive male – as a sturdily reliable framework over which to drape the most delicate script and comedy of observation.

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Is Osama bin Laden not in Pakistan or Afghanistan after all?

This new bin Laden video might provide vital clues at to where the al Qaeda leader is hiding. One thing that is notable about it is that his beard is black in the advanced still that has been released, rather than white-flecked as it was back in 2004. Now it is unlikely that bin Laden can get supplies of Just for Men on the run and Dick Clarke, the US’s former terrorism czar, is speculating that it might actually be a false beard. Clark thinks that this suggests bin Laden might be living somewhere where beards are unusual such as the Philippines or Indonesia. It would be a sweet irony if this video helped close the net on bin Laden.

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The Iraq mission cannot afford more careless talk

Next week's testimony from General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker to Congress on Iraq will give us the best idea yet of how the surge is progressing. To date, the signs are encouraging: to cut sectarian killings in Baghdad in half is a real achievement and begins to provide the conditions in which a political solution to Iraq's problems can be found. Yet, proponents of the surge have to be careful that the enthusiasm surrounding it doesn't begin to resemble the predictions of a cakewalk that preceded the invasion. If it does, the inevitable setbacks that the surge will face will become an argument for withdrawing immediately, a course that would result in total disaster both for Iraq and America's security interests in the region.

The Spectator

bin Laden’s message

The claim that Osama bin Laden will issue a new broadcast message on the sixth anniversary of September 11 on Tuesday illustrates the fundamental difference between the two sides in the war on terror. Even if it does not materialise, the prospect of the tape has grabbed global attention: we shall be holding our breath until the 11th to see if he will say anything and, if he does, whether it ratchets up the al Qaeda message. Second, this brilliant and brilliantly simple piece of stage management counters any amount of Western reassurance that al Qaeda does not really exist, but is actually a disaggregated group of quite different local movements.

Thursday

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The BBC’s climate change u-turn

The BBC’s decision to cancel its plans for a day-long special on climate change is fascinating. Earlier this year, I took part in a seminar at Television Centre led off by Al Gore, who delivered the slide show now immortalised in An Inconvenient Truth. The former Vice-President then disappeared, partly, it emerged, because he will not share a platform with Bjorn Lomborg, the environmentalist who has cast doubt on some of the more dramatic claims made by the green lobby. Ian McEwan, Zac Goldsmith and I all made contributions to the debate – my own point being that the BBC should not exclude those who dissented from the now-orthodox position on climate change, even if they did not give their arguments equal time on air.

The Spectator

Balls doesn’t get the the broken society agenda

One of the most infuriating things that Ed Balls does is try and claim that every mention of youth crime today is an attempt to demonise an entire generation of children. Take his response when Jackie Ashley asks him about the Tory talk of a broken society: “Most kids come out of school, walk home and do their homework, and most kids are probably a member of a club, or play in a sports team, or might do some volunteering. Every generation has always had kids that get into trouble. I got into trouble at school from time to time, like everybody did. There are always going to be some kids that get into more serious trouble with the law, but we shouldn't demonise young people.

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Tories and education

The Tories seem very close to adopting the idea that children shouldn’t be allowed to pass into secondary school until they have passed certain tests as party policy. In the Independent today, Michael Gove, Shadow Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families, makes a passionate case for it. “Earlier this week, our party's policy group on education floated the idea that young people who are falling desperately behind at primary school be given intensive, remedial, help to master the basics. The usual suspects had a go at the idea, with the usual talk about stigma and self-esteem. I'm afraid I don't have much time for that sort of attitude.

Wednesday

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Bill Clinton can still turn a phrase

No one in modern politics is better at coming up with a pithy sound bite that sounds like a piece of home-spun wisdom than Bill Clinton. Just take this line of his from a TV interview when asked about the criticism of Hillary that says she is too much of an insider to change things:  “"They often use...Cheney and Rumsfeld and they say...well, 'if experience counted'...they say this to Democratic audiences...that's like saying because all malpractice is committed by doctors, next time you need surgery, you should go to an auto mechanic..." It is this ability to deflect an attack without sounding like he’s engaging in politics that makes Bill such a priceless asset for the Clinton campaign.

The Spectator

Terror arrests in Germany

News is coming through that a huge terrorist attack on US interests in Germany has been foiled. Generally, the best place to follow these things is on The Blotter, a blog from the investigative team of ABC News.

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Bush’s attempts to coach the Iraqi PM

This account of how George W. Bush has tried to mentor Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, is fascinating. Bush sees his role as giving Maliki the confidence to lead. He tries to gee the Iraqi PM up by both giving him support and through some frat-boy ribbing. The whole approach is summed up by this exchange between the two just before Bush announced his new Iraq strategy:  Then, challenging Maliki, the president said, "It's looking like al-Sadr's gonna run your country." Maliki grew solemn. "I swear to God," he vowed, "al-Sadr will not run this country." Bush took that in. "Well," he said, "I'll put my neck out if you put your neck out.

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The greatest living Englishman

Last night's GQ Men of the Year Awards were, as ever, a glittering occasion and a tribute to the talents of the magazine's editor, Dylan Jones (whose most recent Spectator Diary you can read here). Plenty of excellent choices for the 10th annual ceremony, including the editor of the year, Will Lewis, editor in chief of our stable mate Telegraph titles. I finally got to meet Michael Caine, who was given a Lifetime Achievement award and rewarded with a thunderous standing ovation at the Royal Opera House. He is almost certainly the Greatest Living Englishman. Why? Because, in the end, it is more fun to be Harry Palmer, a spy born in the sound of Bow Bells, than James Bond, endlessly fretting about the right brand of watch and the marque of your car.

Tuesday

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Ancram’s attack

I was just settling down to write something about Michael Ancram’s rather odd pamphlet knocking David Cameron for distancing himself from the party’s past, when I saw this on Comment Central which explains a lot. The more you read it does sound like Ancram just didn’t realise how the media would seize on this story. The other political question of the day is whether Gordon Brown and David Cameron should have a televised debate before the next election. I must admit to having mixed feeling on this subject. On the one hand, it would certainly pep up interest in politics and these debates are great theatre as the Sarkozy-Royal and Bush-Kerry encounters demonstrated. On the other, it would further undermine the primacy of Parliament.

The Spectator

What Brown’s new politics is all about

Rachel Sylvester’s column in The Daily Telegraph today sums up brilliantly what Brown is up to with his call for a new politics. As Sylvester writes, “[Gordon Brown’s] aim is to crush David Cameron and the Conservative Party, not just when the country next goes to the polls but for ever. He shares Chairman Mao's view that "politics is war without bloodshed". His idea of consensus politics is a one-party state. Does anyone really believe that Mr Brown cares what Patrick Mercer, a man sacked by the Tory leader for what Labour MPs described as racist remarks, thinks about national security? Of course he doesn't.  The big clunking fist has not turned into an outstretched palm.

Monday

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John Howard heading for defeat down under

Nobody in Australia has every come back from poll numbers this bad, this close to an election. According to Newspoll, Labor now leads the government 59 to 41 with 48% of voters preferring Ooposition Leader Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister to 37% for John Howard. Opinion polls in Oz are a lot more accurate than they are here thanks to compulsory and preferential voting and Newspoll is historically the best of them. Unless there is a political earthquake between now and December, Howard is toast.

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What Britain owes southern Iraq

Given that Tony Blair misled Britain on the way into war in Iraq, Gordon Brown had better be very careful not to mislead us on the way out. Are Iraqi forces really able to take on the militias of the warring Sadr and Hakim families? That’s what we’re told, but look at these two quotes from a New York Times piece Hakim al-Mayahi, provisional council member in charge of security portfolio in Basra: “We have a huge defect in the equipment and the arming of our security forces. The tribes and locals have better weapons than our security forces, who weren’t provided with more than the usual Kalashnikovs and RPGs while the tribes even have mortars and heavy machine guns”. And this from Wael Saeed, a 34-year-old sportswear shop owner.

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A flying start for Boris

Boris is back: back Boris! Here at 22 Old Queen Street, the blond bombshell's Spectator support team are punching the air. It wasn’t that we let the nay-sayers get to us, or that we ever, for a moment, fell for all that guff about him not being serious – it's just that now we have the evidence to buttress our beliefs. His speech this morning was a corker. He was committed -- spoke of “when” not “if” he becomes mayor – and ticked all the right boxes: the need to make first homes cheaper, to investigate the congestion charge, to champion civility, tackle yobbery and replace the murderous bendy-bus with a “route-master for the 21st century”.

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New Brown much like old Cameron

Moments into Gordon Brown's speech about a new kind of government, it is already clear what the speech is about: copying David Cameron. Addressing a group of voluntary organisations, he has already talked about "top-down solutions" no longer working; the revolution he is announcing is precisely the revolution Cameron has been talking about for months. "Civic responsibiility"..."the empowerment of people"..."cultural and social change". Even more flagrantly, his announcement that "I don't want to carry on with politics as usual" with its "old tired political discourse" and "sloganising" is a direct hit at Cameron's campaign pledge calling for an end to the "Punch and Judy politics" of Westminster. Could this be the beginning of Mr Brown's election campaign?

The Spectator

Gordon’s new friend

There is nothing new in Gordon Brown’s taste for citizens’ juries and new forms of consultation – the cornerstone of his speech on the “New Politics” today – although his plan to review the Speakers’ Conference will repay careful study as part of what will clearly amount, in the end, to a substantial package of parliamentary reforms. It had emerged overnight that John Bercow, previously expected to defect to Labour from the Tories, will be advising the Government on children with learning difficulties, and the appointment of the Lib Dem, Matthew Taylor, to advise ministers on land use scarcely quickens the pulse.