Sebastian Payne

Ed Miliband seems to have clambered out of the wrong side of bed this morning. The Labour leader has been touring the TV and radio studios, where his answers have become progressively worse as the day went on. First up, Miliband spoke to Good Morning Britain about the 'cost-of-living crisis'. When asked whether he knew how much the average weekly household grocery bill was, he said ‘it depends on how much you are spending and how big your family is’. Then when questioned on how much the Miliband household spends, he said: ‘We probably spend £70-80 on groceries at least, probably more than that.

So much for Nigel Farage's image as a straight-talking politician. On LBC this morning, the Ukip leader went head-to-head with James O’Brien, covering a range of topics including some of the 'idiots' in his party, living next door to Romanians as well as the party's recent poster campaign. The interview became particularly heated at around 15 minutes in, when O’Brien quizzed him on immigration and his wife, who apparently does not speak German on trains. But when it came to discussing his EU expenses/allowances, and why he hasn't signed up to a transparency agreement like Labour MEPs, the party’s head of communications Patrick O’Flynn interrupted the interview to halt the car crash.

It’s time to find out which parties are in the money, thanks to the latest Electoral Commission information on party donations. According to the figures for Q1 2014, the Tories have received £6.7 million in donations (up from £3.7 million in Q1 2013) and Labour £4.4 million (compared with £3.7 million last year). It’s not surprising that donations are up because we've entered an important election season. Most of the donors are not new, so here are the top five donations to the Conservative party in 2014 so far, compared with last year: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/ETr2q/index.html"] Michael Hintze: £1.

Oh Lord Howell, you’ve done it again. Offending the North of England once wasn’t enough, so he’s had a second go — warning today that the Conservative party will lose votes in their heartlands if fracking goes ahead. In an online article for the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, George Osborne’s father-in-law lambasts the government’s fracking plans: ‘Trying to start in southern England, and in the home counties, or in rural and countryside areas anywhere, north or south, is a guarantee of longer delays, higher costs and increased hostility from both green left and countryside right.

Labour is failing to make up any ground on Ukip ahead of next week’s European elections. A new poll from Sky News and YouGov today says that Labour’s support has dropped to 25 per cent, while Ukip remain comfortably in first place with 31 per cent of the vote: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/LbUDH/index.html"] Interestingly, Ukip has not pushed further ahead since the last YouGov poll I wrote up, but they are now clear of the margin of error — two/three per cent depending on the sample size. It appears that, combined with Ukip's higher likeliness to vote, Labour is ever more certain to come second on 22 May. The Tories, who have long accepted they will come third, will be pleased they are slowly eroding Labour’s vote share.

Ukip may be sailing towards first place in the European elections, but Nigel Farage unwittingly revealed today how the party is still a long way from becoming a mature political movement. During his interview on the Sunday Politics, Farage didn't seem to know what was in Ukip's local election manifesto — in particular whether the party was promising to make any spending cuts. This is a transcript of what he said: Andrew Neil: You have promised these tax cuts, how much will they cost? Nigel Farage: No idea. I’m not here to talk about, I’ve read the local election manifesto and it doesn't make those promises. AN: It does NF: We do talk about local services, we do talk about the need to keep council tax down but we don't talk about income tax. Absolutely not.

As expected, Ukip has announced that Roger Helmer will be the party's candidate for the upcoming Newark by-election on 5 June. The 70-year-old MEP is a former Conservative who defected to Ukip two years ago, citing an ‘increasing disillusion with the attitudes of the Conservative Party’. Farage said of Helmer’s selection this afternoon: ‘He is a massively experienced and respected figure on the national political stage and on the local political stage as well. I know that the UKIP membership will rally to the cause of making Roger our first directly elected MP.' Helmer is a colourful character, whose past remarks will be undoubtedly dug up by his opponents in Newark.

Now that Newark is a no-go, Nigel Farage will be turning his thoughts to where he will stand as an MP. He said this week that returning its first MP will be a huge breakthrough for Ukip, so choosing a seat that he can win is vital. After declining to stand in the 15 by-elections that Ukip have contested since 2010, it looks as if Farage will wait until 2015 to run for Parliament. Coffee House understands that, ideally, Farage would like the seat to fit three criteria. Firstly, it needs to be a marginal seat. Secondly, he wants to have some local connection — he feels his lack of any roots in Buckingham caused him problems when he stood there in 2010. And thirdly, there would be no incumbent MP, lessening the challenge among the local community.

Who stands the best chance of winning the Newark by-election after Patrick Mercer's resignation? It is a safe Conservative seat, which Mercer has held since 2001. At the last general election, Mercer was reelected to Newark with a 32 per cent majority: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/xnER5/index.html"] The Tories announced when Mercer resigned the party whip that Robert Jenrick, a lawyer who currently works at Christie’s auction house, would be standing for Newark at the next election. Will Jenrick hold the seat? According to Electoral Calculus, there is an 87 per cent chance that the Conservatives will win Newark based on the current polls — but by-elections are more unpredictable.

You don't mean a thing if your seat ain't a swing. As this saying goes, political campaigning in safe seats is usually a thankless task — unless you are Nigel Farage. Last week, he managed to pack out The Sage concert hall in ultra-safe Labour Gateshead for Ukip’s biggest ever-public meeting. By going back to the simple idea of touring the country (even the sceptical parts) and giving speeches, Farage is appealing directly to the voters left behind by the other parties. He told the 1,200-odd assembled crowd of my fellow Geordies: ‘We are here to say that Labour used to stand up for the people in this region, but they have turned their backs on you in favour of the European project. Well, UKIP will stand up for you now.

Despite a week of rather bruising media coverage, Ukip has moved into first place for next month’s European elections. For the second time this year, Nigel Farage’s party has overtaken Labour. According to poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times, just three points currently separate Labour and Ukip — still touching the margin of error: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/aVjwf/index.html"] Although Labour and Ukip may continue to swap places over the next few weeks, today’s poll also suggests Ukip voters are more likely to turn out on polling day.

With the Tories trailing just behind Labour in the opinion polls, predictions are rife that the 2015 general election will be a bloody tough campaign. With a drop in the Lib Dem vote, the rise of Ukip and a potential swing towards Labour, it’s difficult to predict who will win. But like all general elections, a handful of marginal seats will decide who walks into No.10. Here are UK’s most marginal seats which will play a vital role next year. 1. Fermanagh & South Tyrone Held by: Michelle Gildernew — Sinn Fein Majority: 4 [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/b2hPv/index.html"] Easily the UK’s most marginal seat, Michelle Gildernew has held Fermanagh & South Tyrone since 2001.

Where has Ed Miliband found the policies to form the basis of his potential government? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, The Telegraph’s Dan Hodges and Marcus Roberts from the Fabian Society debate the current state of Milibandism and whether the Labour leader is successfully crafting an intellectually coherent set of policies for government. Will Miliband limp over the finish line into No.10 with a strategy to win 35 per cent of the vote, or go for a broader One Nation approach? And does he still have any chance of becoming Prime Minister? Harpers’ Magazine John Rick MacArthur also joins to discuss Clinton vs Bush, again, with Freddy Gray. Why is the American political establishment looking increasingly like an oligarchy?