Sebastian Payne

Labour’s failure to offer a credible economic alternative to the Tories is going hurt them in next year’s election, according to Charles Clarke. The former Labour Education and Home Secretary proved to be a ray of sunshine on the Daily Politics today, arguing that Ed Miliband has failed to explain to voters why the Labour’s alternative plan for the economy is the right one. When asked whether the Conservatives’ strategy is cogent, Clarke said: ‘It's very cogent. I don't think it's true, myself, as a matter of fact. I think Labour has a much better story to tell about the last government and the economy than is widely believed. But I think, as you put it, you're completely correct. The Conservatives have put this story across.

So, the Tories have managed to hold onto Newark with a surprising 7,000 majority. For Ukip, it was a disappointing evening as they failed to come close to taking the seat. Despite adding 22 points to their 2010 vote share, the march of the People’s Army has encountered some unexpectedly difficult terrain. There were some interesting signs about the state of the parties and some hints as to what we might see in the general election next year. Here are six things that we’ve learnt from Newark: 1. Ukip are far from a Westminster breakthrough Despite picking a local candidate in Roger Helmer and putting in a significant amount of effort (for them), Ukip’s dreams of returning their first MP have not come to fruition.

Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative MP for Portsmouth North, become the second women in the Queen's reign to give the Loyal Address — Parliament's formal thanks to the Monarch for her speech — this afternoon. It's a fantastic speech, full of gags which had the House in stitches. As James remarked, Tory associations will be queueing up to book her for after dinner speeches. Listen to the audio in full here: listen to ‘Penn Mordaunt's loyal address’ on Audioboo   Don't have time for the whole thing? Here are the highlights: Mordaunt was one of two women involved in the Loyal Address – it was seconded by Lib Dem Annette Brooke. Are the two the ‘Thelma and Louise’ of the Parliament?

The last Queen’s Speech of this Parliament is almost upon us. Will the final session prove right the claims that this is a 'zombie parliament'? Or can we expect a packed and exciting legislative agenda? Here's a guide to what to expect tomorrow. Freedom for pensioners Following on from George Osborne’s announcement in this year’s budget, two pension bills are expected in the Queen's Speech. One will pave the way for Dutch-style ‘collective pension funds’, as opposed to purely individual funds at present. The notion behind these funds is to spread the risk and offer better value for pensioners. The second bill will allow people to withdraw their savings in a lump sum, to purchase a Lamborghini for example.

The Tories are looking ever more likely to hold Newark in Thursday’s by-election. In a new poll from Lord Ashcroft this afternoon, the Conservatives are now on 47 per cent of the vote, compared to 36 per cent in the last week’s Survation poll and 53 per cent at the 2010 general election: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/OevDw/index.html"] As you can see from the chart above, Ukip have dropped behind slightly their position last last week, but will certainly do better than their 2010 result. By-elections are notoriously hard to predict but this ultra-local poll doesn’t offer any indications that Roger Helmer has the momentum to take Newark.

Will Labour do well in the Newark by-election? While all the focus has been on the fight between the Tories and Ukip (watch our exclusive interview with the candidates here), Labour has been mostly forgotten. Yet in this morning’s poll of the seat from The Sun, Labour are on 27 per cent — four points ahead of their result in 2010 and one point ahead of Ukip: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/4CGHl/index.html"] This is a rather good showing for a party with a pretty basic ground operation. During my visit to Newark-on-Trent yesterday, I did not spot a single Labour canvasser in the town centre. Their election HQ was smaller than any of the other parties.

With one week to go till polling day, the Tories are throwing the kitchen sink at the Newark by-election. When Patrick Mercer resigned last month, it was assumed the Conservatives would easily hold the seat. But since then, Ukip gave a strong performance locally in the Euro elections, adding an unknown element — a higher turnout in Ukip’s favour? A rise in the anti-politics sentiment? I visited Newark today to find out how the battle is going. My overall impression is that the Ukip’s operation is being completely dwarfed by the Conservatives. Over 1,000 Tory activists were here last Saturday, with the same expected again this weekend. MPs and ministers are being continuously bussed in.

Her Majesty’s Treasury and the Scottish government have been at war today. Both have released papers with conflicting predictions about whether the Scots would be better off outside of the UK. The SNP says individuals would be £1,000 better off out of the UK, while the Treasury argues they’d be £1,400 better off in the UK. Much of this analysis is based on negotiations that haven’t happened and economic forecasts that could easily change, but both papers offer much food for thought. Here are the five key competing claims you need to know from the fiscal policy papers: 1. A £1,400 UK dividend?

Will Nick Clegg hold onto his Sheffield Hallam seat next year? No, according to internal Lib Dem polling which has been leaked to the Guardian. ICM have now released the full tables, which outline the fight Clegg and the Lib Dems face in 2015. It's worth noting sample sizes are small — 500 were polled in each seat compared to 1,000 in Ashcroft survey this weekend. But here are the most important details: While Clegg held onto his seat comfortably with 53 per cent of the vote in 2010, the ICM snapshot suggests that if there was a general election tomorrow, Clegg would come third behind Labour and the Tories: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/xaqCs/index.html"] In other key seats for the Lib Dems, the picture isn't any more cheerful.

What is going on in Tower Hamlets? Three days after the counting began, the borough has yet to return a complete set of results from Thursday’s elections. Counting for the Bromley South ward has been stopped for a second time today, resuming in the morning. Tower Hamlets Council explained in a statement ‘the result is looking very close in this ward and accuracy is of paramount concern’. Few would probably have noticed, were it not for Tower Hamlets holding up the rest of London announcing its results for the European elections. While the rest of the country reported its results hours before, Tower Hamlets was delayed due to a new ‘local protocol’ introduced to address the Electoral Commission’s fraud concerns.

Labour is on course to win the next general election, according to Lord Ashcroft. In two polls — one of 26 Tory-Labour marginal constituencies and another national poll carried out after election day — the former Tory treasurer says there is currently a 6.5 per cent swing to Labour. That’s enough for 83 Conservative MPs to disappear and for Ed Miliband to have a working majority. Both polls highlight the significant challenge David Cameron faces to remain Prime Minister next year. Here are five things you need to know about Ashcroft's latest polling. 1.

Nigel Farage has told BBC News this afternoon he intends to stand in a seat 'south of the river' at the general election next year. Despite undertaking a victory lap of Essex today, Farage has proclaimed he won’t be standing there: 'There are several seats here in Essex that are absolutely winnable for us in a general election next year. I haven't yet decided what I'm going to do but I will choose a seat; it will be a seat south of the area.

The final two polls are out on today’s European elections; both of which put Ukip in first place. YouGov, whose poll at the weekend had both parties tied, has placed Ukip just one point ahead of Labour with 27 per cent of the vote — well within their margin of error: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/hgc3p/index.html"] Opinium on the other hand put Ukip seven points ahead of Labour in their final poll, up five points on the last Opinium poll: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/W2nre/index.html"] Turnout will be key as to what happens in these elections, and the indications from YouGov’s likelihood to vote ratings are that Ukip supporters remain the most enthusiastic.