Sebastian Payne

After overtaking Ukip in membership stakes, the Greens are now snapping at its heels in the polls. According to Lord Ashcroft's latest poll, 11 per cent are now intending to vote Green — up from eight per cent last week. As the chart above shows, this puts them four points behind Ukip. The party has come a long way since the last election, where they gained just 0.9 per cent of the vote. As Natalie Bennett acknowledged this morning, the Green Party is getting more help from David Cameron than it ever imagined. The natural assumption is that the Green vote is primarily coming from Labour — but its vote has remained steady from last week's poll. The Tories' lead, six points ahead of Labour last week, appears to have been an outlier.

Is it time for Islam to confront Islamists? On this week's Spectator podcast, Qanta Ahmed discusses in the wake of the attack of Charlie Hebdo why this might happen — as well as how Egypt is leading the way on reforming the religion. Douglas Murray also looks explains why Islam needs to confront the facts of its own history if the terror threat is to be tackled. Vincenzo Scarpetta and James Forsyth also look at the Greek elections on 25 January and the impact they could have on British politics. If the radical left party Syriza triumphs, could the general election in May take place against the backdrop of another a Eurozone crisis?

Nigel Farage will now have to compete for space at the bar with comedian Al Murray, who has announced he will stand for Parliament in South Thanet, as The Pub Landlord for the Free United Kingdom Party. FUKP's manifesto contains many ‘common sense policies’ similar to those we've heard before from the Pub Landlord. Here's how he will offer the voters of South Thanet a bold alternative to the mainstream (and alternative) political parties: The pound in your pocket: The pound will be revalued at one pound 10p, so it will now be worth 10p more. Common sense. The NHS: If you come to A&E and it’s neither an accident nor an emergency then you will be sent to a random hospital department to be practised on. Common sense.

Londoners were not a happy bunch this morning. Aside from the cold, wet weather, two-thirds of the capital’s buses were not running — thanks to a strike arranged by trade union Unite. Bus drivers are protesting over pay, as they believe the lack of a collective deal across all bus operators is unfair. Currently, there are 80-odd different pay rates, as this Unite infographic shows: Time to end the chaos on London's bus network - one rate for all: http://t.co/fRCLv5FKXt pic.twitter.com/WWESxlbNI9 — Unite the union (@unitetheunion) January 13, 2015 27,000 striking bus drivers causing traffic and commuting chaos is annoying — but this strike comes at a sensitive time as the Tories are hoping to clamp down on strikes.

What is going on with the opinion polls? In his first national poll of 2015, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour at 34 per cent — whereas Populus also have a new poll out today putting Labour five points ahead. And yesterday's YouGov poll put both on 32 per cent. As the chart above shows, three of the UK's most prominent pollsters all have completely different predictions on who will win the next election. This poll shows a significant jump in the Conservative position since Ashcroft’s last 2014 poll, which put the party on 40 per cent. So, the question is what’s going on — is this the beginning of the long awaited ‘crossover’ with Labour that Conservative HQ have been hoping for? Or is this an anomaly?

Will the next Parliament be impossible to handle? On this week's View from 22 podcast, James Forsyth and Compass' Neal Lawson discuss the latest Spectator cover feature on the challenges facing Ed Miliband or David Cameron if either manage to secure a majority on 7 May 2015. Will the Labour left or Tory right prove too troublesome for the respective leaders? Should Miliband or Cameron be the most worried? And are we on the brink of major electoral reform? Hugo Rifkind and Isabel Hardman also discuss the A&E crisis facing Britain and the problems of the NHS being used a political football. Who is to blame for the current crisis and will the government do anything in the short term? Can there even be a, rational debate about fixing the health service?

Politicians and commentators of all varieties agree: the next election is nigh-on impossible to predict. Even the grand Tory pollster Lord Ashcroft has refused to publicly say what he thinks, stating today only that he reckons ‘it’s going to be quite exciting’. Instead of offering us his thoughts on who will win, Ashcroft has posted online all of his constituency level polling since May 2014. We’ve already reported on some of these polls but it's worth revisiting some of the seats, because they offer an insight into some of the trends that may play out in the election. Politicians and commentators of all varieties agree: the next election is nigh-on impossible to predict.

How far will Jim Murphy be allowed to go? Yesterday, the Scottish Labour leader proposed funding extra nurses through the Mansion Tax — something his colleagues south of the border aren't particularly happy with. On the World at One today, the Hackney MP and potential London Mayoral candidate Diane Abbott attacked Murphy, and at first forgot his name, for 'jumping the gun' on the Mansion Tax. She argued London will be unduly hit by this policy and the super-wealthy will avoid it: ‘I’m very surprised John…Murphy’s making these boasts. I support the Mansion Tax in principle, I support the union and redistributive taxation but there are two big problems about the Mansion Tax. It is effectively a tax on London — 80 per cent of it will come from London.

There’s 121 days to go till the General Election and the two main parties have released reports attacking each others plans for the economy. You can read them both here: A Cost Analysis of Labour Party Policy The Tories Claims Don't Add Up  The Conservative's document outlines how a Labour government would increase spending by £27.1 billion in its first year alone. In his introductory remarks, George Osborne puts forward the ‘simple choice’ facing the British people in May: 'Ed Miliband’s Labour Party that offers more spending, more borrowing and higher taxes – or David Cameron leading the Conservatives as we continue to work through a long-term economic plan that is reducing the deficit and building a stronger economy.

Another week, another controversial set of controversial remarks from Nigel Farage — this time, it's about the use of the word ‘chinky’ by Kerry Smith, who was running to be the Ukip PPC in South Basildon and East Thurrock. During his LBC phone-in show this morning, Farage had the following exchange with presenter Nick Ferrari about why he is ‘sad’ about Smith’s decision to resign from Ukip: ‘Farage: Because Kerry Smith is a rough diamond, he’s a council house boy from the east end of London, left school early and talks and speaks in a way a lot of people from that background do. We can pretend if we like… Ferrari: So if you’re from a council house, you say poofter do you? Farage: No, no no.

How much of a threat is Ukip to Labour? The tanks of the people’s army have been on the Conservatives’ lawn for some time but we now have an idea why Labour has been preparing to fight the kippers on the doorstep. Lord Ashcroft has carried out his final round of marginal seats polling this year, focusing on eight seats where the Conservative majority is between 7.1 and 8.1 per cent — plus another four seats where Ukip are threatening Labour. The results aren’t too bad for the Conservatives: out of the seven seats polled on Labour’s target list, they are ahead in just two of them (Ealing Central & Acton and Stevenage).

Would you invite Nigel Farage around for drinks and dinner? Steph and Dom Meet…Nigel Farage shows what happened when the ‘posh couple’ from Gogglebox did just that. The Ukip leader comes across as a pretty ordinary bloke — or at least his projection of one. This Gogglebox special could be seen as either a Ukip party political broadcast or the makings of a political satire — with some great throw away lines. ‘He looks like a frog that’s sat on a nail,’ said Dom in anticipation of his guest’s arrival. ‘Was it the politics that screwed up the first marriage?’ he went on. [caption id="attachment_8947922" align="alignright" width="520"] Steph Parker, Nigel Farage and Nigel Farage.