Sebastian Payne

Is Nigel Farage having any more luck in South Thanet? According to a new poll from Survation on the eve of Ukip’s spring conference, Farage has pulled ahead of the Tories and Labour in his target constituency. The poll has Ukip on 39 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and the Conservatives on 27, giving Farage a clear 11-point lead over the other parties. As the chart above shows, it’s a significant rise from the party’s 2010 vote share and up significantly from Lord Ashcroft's most recent constituency poll in November. If Farage managed to achieve a similar result on May 7, it would be a significant boost for the party in a seat that is far from the most Ukip friendly.

Which party does the public trust the most to control immigration? ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll revealing it's not the Conservatives — unsurprisingly given today's figures. 36 per cent trust Ukip the most to tackle immigration, compared to 19 per cent for the Tories: [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/isCLx/index.html"] The poll also reveals that over half of the public think the impact of immigration on the NHS has been bad. As the chart below shows, perceptions on immigration are mixed.

Have you seen Boris Johnson? The Mayor of London has been surprisingly absent from the Conservatives’ floundering campaign so far. He was not chosen to be member of the core team fronting the campaign — Sajid Javid, Nicky Morgan, Theresa May, William Hague and George Osborne in case you’d forgotten. His most prominent appearance was standing alongside the Chancellor at an event focused on London. Today’s Times splashes with the story that some Tories are beginning to worry, and wonder, why the Mayor isn't being used more often. The numbers alone suggest Boris should be on TV screens every night to promote the Conservatives’ cause.

Is Douglas Carswell happily at home in Ukip? The Clacton MP’s latest policy intervention, this time on immigration, adds to the sense that his beliefs differ somewhat from his party and its leader. His op-ed in the Times today for example stated that Enoch Powell was wrong about the dangers of immigration: ‘Immigration has not been without its challenges. Yet it has been, overwhelmingly, a story of success. Britain today is more at ease with the multi-ethnic society that we have become than once seemed imaginable — and not just to Enoch Powell. Like many before and since, Powell underestimated the ability of a free society to adapt.

Is conservatism in Britain broken beyond repair? Tim Montgomerie thinks it’s time for a reformation on the right. In the latest Mini Election video, I speak to the Times columnist and founder of ConservateHome about his new project The Good Right, which sets out his proposals for reuniting and reinvigorating the conservative movement. Given that the Conservative Party hasn’t won a majority since 1992, Montgomerie says the party needs to delve into its history pre-1979 and remember that the state can sometimes deliver the best answers — house building for example.

Labour’s decision to shy away from an EU referendum has cost it a senior figure. The Telegraph reveals that Harriet Yeo, the former chairman of Labour’s National Executive Committee between 2012 and 2013, has quit the party over Ed Miliband’s refusal to offer a referendum. Although she hasn’t joined Ukip, she will be lending her support to the party at the next election. Nigel Farage is naturally pleased with the news. In a statement this afternoon, he said: ‘A life long Trade Unionist and Labour Party member who served as Chair of Ed Miliband's NEC she is yet another voice calling for Britain to have a choice about its future. We are welcoming support from across the board and Harriet's support is evidence of this.

Are the Tories beginning to edge ahead of Labour in the polls? ICM have released their latest monthly poll, which suggests a surge in support for the Conservatives. Since their last poll in January, the Tories have gained six points according to ICM, putting them four points ahead. Labour are on 32 per cent, down one point from last month. As the chart above shows, there's a trend towards the Tories in the last three ICM polls. The bounce appears to be at the expense of the smaller parties. The Liberal Democrats have dropped one point — although they are still on a solid ten per cent — while Ukip are down two points, back into single digits. The Greens are also down two points to seven per cent.