Penworthy

Foreign-trained horses are often overpriced when they come on raids to Britain, particularly when they are housed with the smaller stables. This may well be the case again tomorrow when I expect horses from the other side of the English Channel to make their mark on Champions Day at Ascot. Several French handlers will be looking for revenge from two weekends ago when the home trainers went down by eight wins to three against their British and Irish counterparts in feature races over ‘Arc weekend’ at Longchamp. The more rain that falls tomorrow, the better for the Jerome Reynier-trained FACTEUR CHEVAL in the Group 1 Qipco Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile (Ascot, 3.15 p.m.).

After a week of rain, the official ground conditions for tomorrow’s cards at Newmarket and Haydock both have ‘heavy’ in the description, with a little more of the wet stuff forecast too. If I have learnt only one thing from my decades as a punter, it is to bet with caution when the ground turns into a quagmire. Yes, of course, it is best to back horses that have won or run well on ground described as ‘heavy’ but it is not as simple as that, or even those with a basic knowledge of the form book would soon be rich. When the ground is really, really soft and the mud is flying, it is often accompanied by a series of unpredictable results.

It’s been all of 49 years since a horse trained in Scotland won the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup, one of the classiest sprint handicaps of the season. However, I am hoping that trend ends tomorrow and that a horse in the care of genial Jim Goldie lands the winning pot of more than £92,000. Goldie, who trains in Uplawmoor, East Renfrewshire, and who loves to plunder big races in his native Scotland, has two excellent chances of winning the race (Ayr, 3.35 p.m.) that has attracted its usual maximum field of 25 runners. Jordan Electrics is a typical Goldie runner in that he is a veteran, at eight years old, and yet somehow the canny handler has got staggering improvement from the horse. Jordan Electrics started the season in April off a modest official rating of 72.

Only seven runners are due to line up for the final Classic of the flat season, the Group 1 Betfred St Leger. Unsurprisingly, the small field at Doncaster tomorrow (3.40 p.m.) is dominated by runners trained in Ireland by Co Tipperary maestro Aidan O’Brien. I had not expected to bet in the race but the sponsors are paying three places and so I can’t resist an each way dabble Of O’Brien’s three runners, Illinois is top rated and has a favourite’s chance because we know, from his Royal Ascot win in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase in June, that he will stay tomorrow’s trip of more than one mile and six furlongs.

My favourite flat handicap of the season is the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch at Newmarket on 12 October. I have a good betting record in the race but this year the ante-post market is complicated by the fact that the brilliant Irish trainer Willie Mullins has entered no less than ten horses in the race. As always, the Irish runners, particularly those from the Mullins yard, are likely to have a big say in the outcome of this marathon contest which is run over two miles and two furlongs, and which therefore attracts lots of dual-purpose horses with decent hurdling form. The main problem is that Mullins keeps his cards close to his chest on his race plans and some of his best staying handicappers will go for the more valuable Friends of the Curragh Irish Cesarewitch two weekends earlier.

Tamfana is just the sort of short-priced favourite that I love to take on. Yes, of course she might win tomorrow’s Sky Bet Atalanta Stakes (Sandown, 2.25 p.m.). After all, she was fourth in the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May and, with more luck in running, she would probably have won that day. However, her two runs since then have been more moderate and her French handler David Menuisier, who trains in West Sussex, seems unsure what is his three-year-old filly’s best distance. Last time she failed to stay a mile and a half on soft ground at Longchamp and so tomorrow she reverts to the Guineas trip of a mile. All in all, her current odds of around even money are terribly skinny for a horse that has yet to win this season from four starts.

Like most fathers, I occasionally offer words of advice to my children even if they choose not to take them. Over the years, I have often told my two (now grown-up) daughters: ‘judge a person on how he or she accepts bad news’. My thinking is that pretty much anyone can be charming and generous-spirited when they receive good news, but it takes a really strong, admirable character to be equally magnanimous and upbeat when they have to deal with really unwelcome news. Trainer Ed Bethell recently passed this quirky little test of mine in glowing style. He had to inform the press that Mickley, his first and only Royal Ascot winner – incidentally tipped in this column when he won in June – would continue his career in Hong Kong.

The William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon tomorrow (3.20 p.m.) is always a difficult puzzle for punters to unravel. Run over six furlongs for a first prize of more than £50,000, a field of 19 runners has been declared. With its unusual undulations on the sprint course, Ripon is a specialist track which means that it is an advantage to have strong course and distance form. The trouble is that so many of these experienced sprinters have just that so it does not narrow the field down by that much.  Northern trainers have a superb record in the race too but, once again, they are extremely well represented in the race tomorrow and so this fact is not a huge help either in the search to find the winner.

York’s famous Ebor meeting will be here before we know it and trainer William Haggas will be attempting to plunder many of its top races with his talented string. Although his stables are in Newmarket, Haggas is a Yorkshireman and so he particularly enjoys seeing his runners win at the course which lies some 40 miles from his birthplace of Skipton. The race that Haggas targets with relish each year is the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap, which is the richest flat handicap run in Britain and has a prize of £300,000 for the winner. The contest on Saturday 24 August is over a distance of one mile six furlongs and for a maximum field of 22 runners so, with a fast pace all but guaranteed, stamina is of the essence.

Glorious Goodwood has hopefully saved the best until last with two fabulous days of racing still to come. The detractors will point out that too many races on this undulating, turning track have hard-luck stories and the draw is often all-important as well. However, when the sun shines, this meeting is hard to beat in terms of highlighting flat racing at its best. I am already heavily invested in the Coral Golden Mile (today 3 p.m.) in which it’s a huge advantage to be drawn in single figures. Johan bucked the trend on soft ground last year when he won from stall 18 but the previous seven winners were from berths 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5 and 2. Those who love statistics will be in no rush to back a horse with a double-figure draw.

Take a bow, SUMMERGHAND. Trainer David O’Meara’s gallant old warrior will be participating in his 100th race tomorrow when he contests the Moet & Chandon International Stakes over seven furlongs (Ascot, 3 p.m.). The achievements of this gelding are remarkable since he made his racecourse debut at Doncaster in May 2017. He has won 17 of his 99 starts and amassed more than £624,000 in prize money. Those victories, all of them over six furlongs, include the Unibet Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood in 2020 and the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup in 2022. At the height of his powers, Summerghand was running off an official mark of 113 whereas tomorrow, aged ten, he will be running off just 91.

Trainer David O’Meara loves heading down from his North Yorkshire stables to plunder some of the big summer handicaps with his best horses. At the top of his list of aims are the most valuable contests at Glorious Goodwood and he doesn’t mind running three or four of his string in the same race to increase his chances of landing a nice prize. O’Meara has won two of the last four runnings of the Coral Golden Mile and, with a first prize of more than £77,000 this year, there is no doubt the handler will be targeting the race again in two weeks’ time. My strong fancy for this contest on 2 August is BLUE FOR YOU who returned to form last Saturday when he won the John Smith Racing Handicap at York for the second year running.

Armchair sports fans are in for a treat this weekend and I am not just talking about England’s appearance in the final of Euro 2024 or the Wimbledon finals. Racing enthusiasts can look forward to watching 11 races on ITV tomorrow afternoon spread over just 170 minutes. This is so-called ‘Super Saturday’ when there is almost endless live action from three big meetings: Newmarket, York and Ascot. It’s not all about quantity either because there is quality too: Newmarket stages the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup (4.35 p.m.) and there are plenty of other high-class races, handicaps and non-handicaps alike, on all three cards.

It’s impossible not to like and admire Charlie Fellowes: he is one of those people who gives 100 per cent to whatever he sets his mind to. The Newmarket trainer’s enthusiasm for racing and the horses in his care is infectious, and he is always willing to talk to the media about plans for his stable stars.  In short, Fellowes is a wonderful ambassador for the sport and he deserves all the big-race success that he has enjoyed in his first decade as a trainer. By his own high standards, Fellowes has had a relatively quiet season so far but I am convinced that the second half of his season will be better than the first half for him. My thinking partly comes from the fact that the astute handler is adamant that he has some really promising two-year-olds among his 65-strong string.

Unless I am being kept in the dark, Spectator Life has no intention of following the lead of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme in scrapping their regular racing tips. That said, those sacked are usually the last to know – even when they are paid to predict the future. Kelvin MacKenzie, the legendary former editor of the Sun newspaper, once dismissed his astrologer with the words, ‘As you will no doubt have foreseen… you’re fired.’  Without getting overconfident on the safety of my position, I will continue as normal until told otherwise. Newcastle’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate card tomorrow is the one and only time each year that I bet on the all-weather surface and that’s because this is a really classy card with some competitive racing.

Lambourn trainer Jonny Portman is a splendid ambassador for horse racing: he is talented, charming and witty. Television presenters and newspaper journalists love interviewing him because his dry sense of humour invariably comes to the fore. Addressing some challenging times for his stable in 2022, he told a racing journalist, ‘I’ve had four owners die this year and I know two more are planning on it. So I do worry.’ Portman invariably gets the best out of his horses – he currently has 45 in training – and, if he had a couple of big-spending owners, he would undoubtedly be competing for the sport’s top prizes more often. Two Tempting is this season’s star for the yard, winning four of his five races and picking up some £120,000 in prize money along the way.

Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios is likely to go off at close to even-money favourite for today’s big race, the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (4.25 p.m). He was absent at Royal Ascot last year after a setback but won the Gold Cup the previous year and it is understandable that he is at the top of the market. However, I can’t help feeling that he is a really poor price given the level of the opposition and the fact he is not even officially the top-rated horse in the race. That honour narrowly goes to Trawlerman who beat Kyprios off level weights at Ascot in October in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup.

Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old colt Auguste Rodin is talented and infuriating in equal measures. When last year’s Betfred Derby winner is good, he is simply superb but when he is bad, he is very poor indeed. He is a nightmare for punters to evaluate because he has been stone last in two of his last five runs but there have been two impressive winning performances during that time too. My big hopes today lie with my two strong fancies for the Kensington Palace Stakes All in all, I am happy to take him on in today’s feature race at Royal Ascot, the Grade 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4.25 p.m.). I am no keener to back Inspiral at skinny odds either after her uninspired comeback when fourth at Newbury, even though I accept that race was very much a prep run for Royal Ascot.

It is day one of Royal Ascot and there are some fabulous races to savour. I will always marginally prefer the Cheltenham Festival with jumps’ horses to the Berkshire extravaganza on the flat but I am greatly looking forward to the next five days. Down to business: the King Charles III Stakes (3.45 p.m.) offers mouth-watering fare for those who love the speedsters. With fast ground in his favour, I had expected to put up Regional for this race after his near-perfect prep in Ireland and because today’s stiff five furlongs should be ideal for him. However, I can’t back him at a top priced 9-2 in such a competitive 17-runner Group 1. Regional is talented but no world beater.

Patriotic racegoers will be hoping the King and Queen are winning owners at next week’s prestigious Royal Ascot meeting. A year ago, the William Haggas-trained Desert Hero duly obliged in the royal colours and the same horse will be among their runners next week too. However, the royal couple could have one of their string in the winners’ enclosure as early as tomorrow when SERRIED RANKS contests the Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap. This contest, however, will take place at York racecourse (3.35 p.m.), more than 200 miles away from the Berkshire track. I am pretty confident that the Ralph Beckett-trained, three-year-old gelding will step up on his seasonal debut at Sandown in April when he was only fifth of the nine runners.