Penworthy

Unless I am being kept in the dark, Spectator Life has no intention of following the lead of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme in scrapping their regular racing tips. That said, those sacked are usually the last to know – even when they are paid to predict the future. Kelvin MacKenzie, the legendary former editor of the Sun newspaper, once dismissed his astrologer with the words, ‘As you will no doubt have foreseen… you’re fired.’  Without getting overconfident on the safety of my position, I will continue as normal until told otherwise. Newcastle’s JenningsBet Northumberland Plate card tomorrow is the one and only time each year that I bet on the all-weather surface and that’s because this is a really classy card with some competitive racing.

Lambourn trainer Jonny Portman is a splendid ambassador for horse racing: he is talented, charming and witty. Television presenters and newspaper journalists love interviewing him because his dry sense of humour invariably comes to the fore. Addressing some challenging times for his stable in 2022, he told a racing journalist, ‘I’ve had four owners die this year and I know two more are planning on it. So I do worry.’ Portman invariably gets the best out of his horses – he currently has 45 in training – and, if he had a couple of big-spending owners, he would undoubtedly be competing for the sport’s top prizes more often. Two Tempting is this season’s star for the yard, winning four of his five races and picking up some £120,000 in prize money along the way.

Aidan O’Brien’s Kyprios is likely to go off at close to even-money favourite for today’s big race, the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (4.25 p.m). He was absent at Royal Ascot last year after a setback but won the Gold Cup the previous year and it is understandable that he is at the top of the market. However, I can’t help feeling that he is a really poor price given the level of the opposition and the fact he is not even officially the top-rated horse in the race. That honour narrowly goes to Trawlerman who beat Kyprios off level weights at Ascot in October in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup.

Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old colt Auguste Rodin is talented and infuriating in equal measures. When last year’s Betfred Derby winner is good, he is simply superb but when he is bad, he is very poor indeed. He is a nightmare for punters to evaluate because he has been stone last in two of his last five runs but there have been two impressive winning performances during that time too. My big hopes today lie with my two strong fancies for the Kensington Palace Stakes All in all, I am happy to take him on in today’s feature race at Royal Ascot, the Grade 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (4.25 p.m.). I am no keener to back Inspiral at skinny odds either after her uninspired comeback when fourth at Newbury, even though I accept that race was very much a prep run for Royal Ascot.

It is day one of Royal Ascot and there are some fabulous races to savour. I will always marginally prefer the Cheltenham Festival with jumps’ horses to the Berkshire extravaganza on the flat but I am greatly looking forward to the next five days. Down to business: the King Charles III Stakes (3.45 p.m.) offers mouth-watering fare for those who love the speedsters. With fast ground in his favour, I had expected to put up Regional for this race after his near-perfect prep in Ireland and because today’s stiff five furlongs should be ideal for him. However, I can’t back him at a top priced 9-2 in such a competitive 17-runner Group 1. Regional is talented but no world beater.

Patriotic racegoers will be hoping the King and Queen are winning owners at next week’s prestigious Royal Ascot meeting. A year ago, the William Haggas-trained Desert Hero duly obliged in the royal colours and the same horse will be among their runners next week too. However, the royal couple could have one of their string in the winners’ enclosure as early as tomorrow when SERRIED RANKS contests the Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint Handicap. This contest, however, will take place at York racecourse (3.35 p.m.), more than 200 miles away from the Berkshire track. I am pretty confident that the Ralph Beckett-trained, three-year-old gelding will step up on his seasonal debut at Sandown in April when he was only fifth of the nine runners.

As a keen follower of most sports, I like it when the ‘good guys’ do well. By the ‘good guys’, I mean the elite sportsmen (and women) who are humble about their achievements and who you feel you could enjoy a couple of pints with at the bar of your local pub. In racing, I would be pretty sure that trainer Owen Burrows falls into this good-guy category. I have never met him but contacts of mine who know him well like him a great deal. He is knowledgeable, charming, straightforward and modest when interviewed on television too. More importantly from the point of view of a punter, Burrows is an exceptionally talented trainer.

Who would have thought it? After four Classic races this season on both sides of the Irish Sea, the score between the trainers from the two nations is… Britain 4, Ireland 0. After the Irish routed their British rivals at the Cheltenham festival and with the formidable strength of Aidan O’Brien Co Tipperary yard, that scoreline would not have been predicted by many. This weekend we see the next two English classics contested on the Epsom Downs This weekend we see the next two English classics contested on the Epsom Downs: the Betfred Oaks today and the Betfred Derby tomorrow. Although horses from the O’Brien yard head the market for both races, it is not impossible British trainers could come out on top again. From a betting point of view, I hope that is the case.

Horses drawn high had a considerable advantage in the big sprint races at Haydock a year ago and I suspect it will be same again tomorrow, even though the going is much softer than 12 months ago. There could be a particular advantage for front runners if they claim the near-side rail early on and don’t go too fast in order to keep that advantageous position. There are other complicating factors, however, for punters, notably the ground which, as of this morning was ‘soft, heavy in places’. That’s almost certain to mean there will be several non runners between now and tomorrow afternoon, with horses that prefer good ground kept for another day. In the Group 2 Betfred Temple Stakes (tomorrow 1.50 p.m.

The classiest race this weekend is the Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury (tomorrow, 3.35 p.m.) in which the French-trained Big Rock and the Newmarket-trained Inspiral are understandably vying for favouritism. They are officially the two top rated horses in the race and they both finished last season on a high: Big Rock won the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day by a comfortable six lengths, while John and Thady Gosden’s Inspiral travelled to America and won the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf by a neck under a strong Frankie Dettori ride.

There is so much to like about Chester’s three-day May meeting ending today: a unique course with an atmosphere to match, quality racehorses, highly-competitive contests every day and much more besides. If you have never been to the Cheshire track situated on the outskirts of this cathedral city on the River Dee, put it on your to-do list now because it will not disappoint. I have already put up one tip for today’s big race: the Chester Cup (3.40 p.m.). Zoffee, suggested at 16-1 a week ago, is less than half that price now and, in theory, he should benefit from his number one draw.  However, he tends to be held up so the danger is he may get stuck behind a wall of horses coming into the straight.

If City of Troy is as brilliant as his trainer Aidan O’Brien thinks he is and he runs to his best form, then he will win the first Classic of the flat season at Newmarket tomorrow. The three-year-old colt is not just a ‘talking horse’: his record on the racetrack last season was sensationally good, namely when destroying a decent field in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes in October. Similarly, if Rosallion is as talented as his trainer Richard Hannon thinks and runs to his best, then he should finish second to City of Troy in the Qipco 2000 Guineas (Newmarket 3.35 p.m.).

As the curtain falls on another jumps’ season tomorrow, the ups and downs of ante-post betting are all too apparent once again. Threeunderthrufive, put up three weeks ago at 20-1, is now 7-1 second favourite for the bet365 Gold Cup (tomorrow, 3.35 p.m.) at Sandown. With his favoured good ground almost guaranteed, he will have a live chance of defying top weight in the 20-runner contest. My second ante-post bet in the race, Desertmore House, had looked an even better proposition. Put up two weeks ago at 25-1, he was heavily backed into 7-1 second favourite. He, too, had his favoured good ground looming only for his trainer Martin Brassil to decide to skip Sandown in favour of a run in his native Ireland. Ouch.

There is plenty of competitive racing at Ayr over the next two days, quite apart from tomorrow’s Coral Scottish Grand National. With some decent prize money on offer too, it is not surprising that the quality of the cards is high. The Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (tomorrow, 2.25 p.m.), unlike its English counterpart at the Cheltenham Festival, is a handicap and, as such, there are plenty of horses in with a chance of landing the £56,000-plus prize for the winner. Dan Skelton’s L’Eau du Sud is understandably at the top of the market after two big runs in his last two races, notably when runner-up last time out in the BetMGM County Handicap Hurdle at the Festival. However, odds of 4-1 or less are unappealing, especially as he is creeping up the handicap too.

My suggested ante-post bets for tomorrow’s Randox Grand National (4 p.m.) have featured prominently in this column for several weeks now. The good news is that these wagers are looking promising. My three long-term tips for the big Aintree spectacle were all put up at juicy prices that are long gone. My fourth Grand National bet, Desertmore House has – as I feared – narrowly failed to make the cut but that was NRNB (Non Runner No Bet), so there is no harm to anyone’s bank balance. So what of the chances of my three selections tomorrow now that the ground is likely to ride very soft?

Max McNeill and his family, who own THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE, have been hoping for months that their horse would line up for next weekend’s Randox Grand National. However, they listened to the man who knows the horse best, 14-times champion trainer Paul Nicholls. He persuaded them that their nine-year-old gelding would be better suited to the challenges of the bet365 Gold Cup instead. This advice led to Threeunderthrufive swerving Aintree and instead being on target for Sandown on 27 April where he will have a really good chance of landing the £95,000-plus first prize. Threeunderthrufive ticks a lot of boxes for this race: he stays well, he jumps well, he goes on pretty much any ground and he goes well right-handed (we know this after he won so well at Ascot last time out).

The interestingly-named GOSHHOWPOSH has two ways of running: very well and very badly. He’s clearly talented and two of his four runs this season ended in victories at Exeter and Wincanton respectively. However, in his other two runs he unseated his rider at the last hurdle when having no chance of winning at Haydock and then he was pulled up in his most recent run at Exeter when 6-4 favourite. Backing horses like Goshhowposh can be infuriating for punters: it’s too easy to put money on them when they run badly and then it’s frustrating to watch them trot up next time out without a penny of your hard-earned on the horse.

Irishman Martin Brassil is a brilliant target trainer but even he has to handle the ups and downs that come with participating in the so-called Sport of Kings. Horse racing, particularly at the highest level, can bring despair as well as joy as Brassil experienced at last week’s Cheltenham Festival when he had three fancied runners over the three days. Built by Ballymore was a disappointing 4-1 favourite when he came only 14th of the 21 runners in the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle, Fastorslow unseated his rider when well-fancied for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup and, worst of all, Ose Partir, was brought down and, sadly, fatally injured in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

The Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30 p.m.) is the highlight of not just the final day of the Cheltenham Festival but this whole glorious week of racing. Yet, again, the Festival has been largely dominated by horses from the other side of the Irish Sea but I hope a British-trained horse will land the £350,00-plus first prize today. Despite winning twice at the Festival and landing last year’s Randox Grand National, CORACH RAMBLER remains a bit of a mystery in that we still don’t know how good he is at his very best. With his hold-up style, he never wins by more than he has to and he is always best in the spring.

There are two competitive big races to look forward to on day three of the Cheltenham Festival: the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30 p.m.) and the Grade 2 Ryanair Chase (2.50 p.m.) The former race is for experienced staying hurdlers over a trip of three miles and I am happy to have already taken on the warm favourite, Teahupoo, with a horse at a big price. I put up Home By The Lee at 28-1 before Christmas and he will line up much shorter today. At half time, it’s pretty much honours shared with the old enemy, the bookmakers I remain optimistic about his each way chances, especially as connections have reached for first-time blinkers. If Home By The Lee does not win, I would love to see Fergal O’Brien land his first-ever Festival winner with Crambo.