Penworthy

Ascot racecourse missed most of the rain that fell this week and, as a result, the ground will now almost certainly be on the fast side of good for tomorrow’s big race, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (4.10 p.m.). Despite a first prize of more than £850,000 for winning connections, just five runners will line up for this prestigious Group 1 contest. Calandagan and Jan Brueghel are vying for favouritism in a re-run of their duel in the Betfred Coronation Stakes at Epsom early last month when the latter prevailed by half a length. However, I see this as very much a four-horse contest with Kalpana and Rebel’s Romance both having live chances. Continuous is the only runner that I would rule out because he will probably act as a pacemaker for Jan Brueghel.

This weekend’s racing does not get me excited from a betting point of view so instead I am going to put up three ante-post bets at big odds. These horses should give those who follow my tips an interest, hopefully even a profit, at some of the bigger meetings over the coming month. I can’t resist a big-field handicap on Ascot’s long straight course so the International, run a week tomorrow over seven furlongs, is just my cup of tea. There could be some value about because I rate the favourite, More Thunder, and another fancied runner, Skukuza, as doubtful runners. The most likely winner of this race in my view is Aalto after his splendid run when pipped on the line by More Thunder in last week’s bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket.

It is so-called ‘Super Saturday’ tomorrow with a host of great racing from Newmarket, York and Ascot. The fast ground, which follows yet another week of fine weather, has reduced the anticipated size of some of the handicap fields but there is still a host of competitive racing at the three tracks. Before I turn to tomorrow’s fare, I want to put up bets for today’s racing at York and Newmarket. I generally don’t like to back horses on their seasonal debut because their fitness cannot be guaranteed, especially when racing against rivals who have a race, or in this case several races, under their belts. However, in York’s Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes (2.45 p.m.

I  am pretty sure that MINSTREL KNIGHT is a well-handicapped horse off an official rating of 87. However, there is no doubt that he is a better horse with cut in the ground: he won at Haydock on heavy ground and at York on soft ground at the end of last season. With very little rain over the spring and early summer resulting in predominantly quick ground up and down the country, Minstrel Knight has only run once to date this season, when he was fourth on good to soft ground in a modest handicap at Hamilton. That was almost certainly a prep run for a bigger target. The problem with backing this horse at Haydock tomorrow for the Old Newton Cup (3.15 p.m.) is that the ground is currently described as ‘good, good to firm in places’.

The training talents of Ed Bethell and the spending power of Wathnan Racing could prove to be a lethal combination in the years ahead. Both are hugely ambitious and knowledgeable when it comes to all aspects of horse racing. Tomorrow PABORUS, the horse that Wathnan bought earlier this season from his original syndicate owners for an undisclosed sum, runs at York in the Group 3 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes (2.25 p.m.) Bethell will have been delighted to have added Wathnan to his growing list of patrons. This is racing stable of the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, which celebrated five winners at this month’s Royal Ascot meeting, including Group 1 success with Lazzat in Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.

My main fancies for Royal Ascot this year have all run in the first three days and the final two days look a lot harder to me in terms of finding good wagers. Winning money from the bookmakers is hard, giving it back to them is easy. I am therefore going to approach today and tomorrow with caution and have fewer bets. In today’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup (3.05 p.m.) over six furlongs, Shadow of Light and Jonquil have been heavily backed as both horses drop back in trip from a mile. The former was third in the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, while the latter was second in the equivalent French race at Longchamp.

At first glance, today’s Britannia Stakes handicap (5 p.m.) at Royal Ascot looks an impossible puzzle to solve. No less than 30 three-year-old runners are due to line up and plenty of them are plot horses that will go on to win off much higher official marks than they are running from today. However, my strong fancy for this race is PAROLE D’ORO to pull off a coup that has been some two years in the planning. This lightly-raced colt has only run three times in his career, just enough to earn a handicap rating. Each of his three runs has seen an improvement but I am convinced the best is yet to come from trainer Michael Bell’s charge.

The Grade 1 Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot today (4.20 p.m.) is an intriguing contest in which five of the nine runners are priced up at 6-1 or less. Los Angeles and Anmaat will renew their rivalry from the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last month when the former beat the latter by half a length. That form, with highly-rated rivals Kalpana in third and White Birch in fourth, looks red hot and so it is not surprising to see these two horses at the top of the market today for this 10-furlong race worth £600,000 to the winning connections. However, at the prices, I am going to side with the horse that was supplemented last week or this race – at a cost of £70,000 – SEE THE FIRE.

The two staying handicaps on day one of Royal Ascot – the Ascot Stakes and the Copper Horse Stakes – are always among my favourite betting races of the week. In both of today’s races, I first look out for a horse that is well handicapped on the flat compared with its hurdles form. Willie Mullins’ Poniros most certainly ticks that box having won the JCB Triumph Hurdle at 100-1 before showing that was no fluke being second to his old rival Luamba in the equivalent Grade 1 event at the Punchestown festival early last month. Poniros undoubtedly has a big chance of landing the Ascot Stakes (5 p.m.

Royal Ascot gets me more excited than the weekend racing fare so I am going to put up four horses who could well go off shorter when they line up for their respective targets next week. First up in RASHABAR in the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday (4.20 p.m.). Brian Meehan’s three-year-old colt caused an upset at this meeting a year ago when landing the Coventry Stakes at odds of no less than 80-1. Admittedly, next week he has to take on arguably the best horse in training in the form of Field of Gold but this race might just cut up to less than eight runners by the off, in which case the current three places would be attractive.

The unsettled weather forecast coupled with the number of leading horses who are untried at the distance of tomorrow’s Betfred Derby (3.30 p.m.) have increased the chances of a surprise result. The form of Ruling Court is rock solid but his victory in the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket came on good ground and over a trip of just a mile. Tomorrow’s contest over Epsom’s twists and turns will be over a mile and a half and it will be on much softer going than at racing’s headquarters more than a month ago. Ruling Court’s style of running and his breeding give every indication that he will stay 10 furlongs but 12 furlongs on ground with some cut could be another matter so odds of no bigger than 9-2 do not appeal.

Jockey Kieran Shoemark and trainer Charlie Fellowes are two talented men who deserve a change of fortune. Shoemark lost his job as first jockey to John and Thady Gosden after being blamed for Field of Gold’s narrow defeat in the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket four weeks ago. Shoemark then rode Fellowes’ filly Shes Perfect to victory in the French 1000 Guineas at Longchamp, only for the three-year-old filly to be demoted from first to second for interference. To add insult to injury, the decision was appealed and despite evidence from both men that they had been hard done by, they failed to get the result overturned. On Sunday, Fellowes and Shoemark will return to France, this time to Chantilly, for the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, or French Derby (3.05 p.m.

Astute Scottish trainer Jim Goldie cannot hide his admiration for his five-year-old sprinter AMERICAN AFFAIR, who runs at Haydock tomorrow in the Group 2 Betfred Temple Stakes (3.30 p.m.). Goldie knows a thing or two about decent speedsters having trained the likes of Jack Dexter and Hawkeyethenoo in recent years – the former, in fact, finished second in the Temple Stakes a decade ago. The veteran handler said this week that American Affair was ‘very exciting’ and up there with the best sprinters he had trained which is why Goldie has given his stable star an entry in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot next month. American Affair has won two 5 furlong handicaps already this year, most recently at York off an official rating of 98.

The form of the Virgin Bet-sponsored Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh last month is rock solid. The winner, American Affair, and the runner-up, Jm Jungle, filled the same two places in a hotter race at York yesterday off their revised marks. Fifth at Musselburgh after being backed into 2-1 favourite was COVER UP trained by the father and son team of Simon and Ed Crisford. The five-year-old gelding was beaten less than three lengths but I am pretty sure he is better than that. The horse can be tricky at the start but tomorrow he will be in the safe hands of William Buick, who has won on him three times before, when he runs in the Hong Kong Jockey Club Handicap at Newbury (3.45 p.m.). The race, over six furlongs, has attracted 12 runners for a first prize of more than £38,000.

Today's Ladbrokes Chester Cup (3.05 p.m.), run over a distance of more than two miles and two furlongs, is an intriguing affair with 15 runners competing for a first prize of more than £86,000. The best handicapped horse on the basis of his hurdles form is the likely favourite East India Dock, who was third in the Grade 1 JCB Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March and can run off a lenient official flat mark of 89 today. The slight downsides to his chances are that he is untried at such a marathon trip as this on the flat and he has no experience of the unique twists and turns of Chester. East India Dock is the most likely winner of the race but at odds of 7-2 I am happy to look elsewhere.

Field of Gold is going to be hard to beat in tomorrow’s Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket (3.35 p.m.). He was impressive when winning the Group 3 bet365 Craven Stakes over course and distance last month and, according to his joint trainer John Gosden, the horse was only ‘80 to 85 per cent’ fit for that race. However, his rating of 118 means he is not officially the best horse in the race – that honour goes to Shadow of Light. Field of Gold is the most likely winner of the race but odds of 7-4 make no appeal. After careful consideration, Godolphin’s stable jockey William Buick has decided not to ride Shadow of Light, the winner of both the Darley Dewhurst Stakes and the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes, the two Grades 1s for two-year-olds at Newmarket last season.

The Dan Skelton versus Willie Mullins battle reaches its finale at Sandown tomorrow when one of these two brilliant trainers will be crowned Britain’s champion National Hunt trainer for the 2024-5 season. Skelton, who trains in Warwickshire, goes into the final two days of the season with a narrow lead over Mullins, who trains from his all-conquering Irish yard in Co. Carlow. However, with all the firepower at his disposal, it looks highly likely that Mullins will overtake Skelton’s prize money total tomorrow, given the latter’s lead is less than £60,000. For example, Mullins fields no less than ten runners in the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (4.10 p.m.), worth nearly £100,000 to the winner.

The weather is going to have a big bearing on the result of the BoyleSports Irish Grand National on Easter Monday. There is plenty of rain forecast between now and the off, and if that prediction is correct, the ground is going to be “soft”, or even “heavy”, by the off. I am loathe to desert Haiti Couleurs after he did this column a favour winning at the Cheltenham Festival: put up at 8-1, Rebecca Curtis’s game gelding won the Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase at 7-2 by a comfortable four and a half lengths. Haiti Couleurs is a magnificent, precise jumper and seems to go on all ground conditions but he must race off a 6 lbs higher official mark at Fairyhouse on Monday (5 p.m.).

Tomorrow’s Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35 p.m.) has attracted a field of 23 runners with a pot of more than £112,000 to the connections of the winner. Irish trainer Willie Mullins, fresh from his stunning achievements at Aintree last weekend, has six runners in the race as he tries to become champion trainer in Britain for a second successive year. It's impossible to rule out another Mullins victory but the bookies are running scared of his horses and the forecast favourite, Chosen Witness, looks to be particularly poor value. I have put up two horses for the race with mixed fortunes so far. Magna Sam, suggested each way at 50-1, is running and is now a top-priced 20-1.

Tomorrow’s Randox Grand National (4 p.m.), the world’s most famous horse race, is the highlight of an excellent card at Aintree and I think the bookies have got it right with the horses they have put at the top of the market. Stumptown, who could yet go off as favourite, is the best weighted horse in the race given that he would be given several pounds more if the handicapper was allowed to take his recent Cheltenham Festival win into consideration. His victory by seven lengths in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase came, however, after the weights were published and this is a race in which there are no winning penalties.