There are at least three runners at Haydock tomorrow hoping to win the William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (3.15 p.m.) because victory would mean they have a much better chance of getting into the Randox Grand National on April 11.
I am sweet on the chances of trainer Jamie Snowden’s LA CONQUIERE
That’s because the weights for the big Aintree spectacular will be announced this coming week and the handicapper can assess all the runners on their performances up to and including tomorrow. An official rating of around 145 will almost certainly be needed in order to get into the 34-strong field.
Deafening Silence and Myretown are at the head of the market for the three-and-a-half mile contest tomorrow, which is worth nearly £57,000 to winning connections. Both horses need to increase their official ratings from 142 and 133 respectively.
However, I would rather back the third horse hoping for a Grand National run, MONBEG GENIUS. The ten-year-old gelding found himself in a similar position a year ago, only to win a Uttoxeter handicap, thereby raising his rating enough – from 142 to 147 – to get a run at Aintree last April.
Monbeg Genius, now ten years old, is back down to a mark of 142 once again and it would be a case of déjà vu if he wins tomorrow. He is not the most reliable horse on the planet but there was a lot to like about his last run when fifth in the Coral Welsh Grand National, beaten 11 and a half lengths on ground that was far too fast for him (officially “good to soft” but in reality much quicker).
Tomorrow’s likely soft ground will suit him better and with the O’Neill family – trainers Jonjo and A.J. and jockey Jonjo Jnr – in good form, Monbeg Genius definitely has the ability to win this race if running up to his best form. Back him 1 point each way at 12-1 with bet365, paying four places.
At Ascot, the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.) is an open contest with 15 runners hoping to land a first prize of more than £26,000. As always in these valuable handicap hurdles, the Skeltons – trainer Dan and jockey Harry – have to be respected but their runner Listentoyourheart might just prefer quicker ground than he will get tomorrow.
Alastair Ralph, who trains in Shropshire, is an underrated handler whose string is in good form with three wins from his last 16 runners over the past fortnight for a winning strike rate of 19 per cent. His lightly-raced horse, LITGHTNINGUPOURDAYS is a consistent performer with one win and five places from his eight career runs.
The seven-year-old gelding goes well on soft ground and showed there is still plenty of ability there with a fine seasonal debut when third behind two subsequent winners at Hereford in December. That was all the more encouraging as it was his first run for nearly a year. Back Lightningupourdays 1 point each way at 8-1 with Ladbrokes or Coral, both paying four places.
Most of my time studying form at present involves looking forward to the Cheltenham Festival. The more I look at the field for the Grade 1 Skybet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on day one, March 10, the more I am drawn to the chances of SOBER GLORY from theSomerset yard of Philip Hobbs and Johnson White. Hobbs said earlier this season that this horse was “the best one I have had for a long time” – warm praise indeed given some of the top horses that have been stabled in his yard over the decades.
This six-year-old gelding is four wins from five starts which means he now has an official rating of 148, just 3lbs below the hot favourite Old Park Star. The more rain the better for Sober Glory but he can perform well enough on “good to soft”, the likely ground conditions for the first day if the rain finally stops. Back Sober Glory 1 point each way at 12-1 Non Runner No Bet (NRNB), those odds are offered by most, but not all, bookies paying three places.
I am also going to put up an ante-post bet in the Grade 2 Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle on March 12. Irish trainer Willie Mullins’ Bambino Fever is the short-priced favourite for this race after winning at the Festival last year and showing plenty of signs of ability this year.
However, I am sweet on the chances of trainer Jamie Snowden’s LA CONQUIERE, who was second when taking on more experienced rivals in the Grade 2 BetMGM Warfield Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot last month.
In his Festival stable tour for the Racing Post last week, Snowden said of that race: “We learned a lot about her. She got beaten only half a length and she was giving the winner a 2lb penalty. She was very good at her jumping, but we engaged in battle soon enough that day and probably just got outbattled by a wiser, more battle-hardened warrior. She’s got bags of speed and she’s very talented. Hopefully we can have her in tip-top shape heading into Cheltenham.”
Snowden knows how to ready a horse for a big target and so back La Conquiere 1 point each way at 16-1 with BetVictor, which does not have the NRNB comfort blanket but this race is very much her aim. She is 14-1 elsewhere with the NRNB concession.
Snowden knows how to ready a horse for a big target and so back La Conquiere 1 point each way at 16-1
Last but not least I am going to put up a horse in the Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton on February 21 – that’s a week tomorrow. Trainer Alan King’s THE DOYEN CHIEF is two wins from two runs at the course and still looks well enough handicapped.
The nine-year-old gelding is fine on soft ground but would not want it like a bog. Kempton is a good drying track and, in the hope that the rain finally eases, back him 1 point each way at 12-1 with most bookies, paying four places.
By this time next week, we will know the entries for the Festival handicaps so I would be surprised if I did not have a suggested ante-post bet for one or two of those races in seven days’ time. Until then, happy punting.
Pending:
1 point each way Lightningupourdays at 8-1 for the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 12-1 for the Grand National Trial, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way The Doyen Chief at 12-1 for the Ladbrokes Trophy, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Sober Glory for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at 12-1 NRNB, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Romeo Coolio at 16-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mambonumberfive at 20-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places
1point each way Golden Ace at 16-1 for the Champion Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Laurens Bay at 25-1 for the NH Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way La Conquiere at 16-1 for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Haiti Couleurs at 14-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Resplendent Grey at 50-1 for the Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend – 4 points
1 point each way Dance and Glance at 20-1 for the William Hill Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Milldam at 18-1 for the William Hill Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Pulled up. – 2 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 0.985 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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