The Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket tomorrow (3.40 p.m.) is a 29-runner race over two miles two furlongs in which any number of horses have a chance of landing the spoils.
The most likely winner, if he stays the distance, is the lightly-raced, four-year-old gelding Sea Lantern
Last year’s first and second, Beylerbeyi and Dawn Rising, are in the field once again and both will appreciate the fact that the worst of the forecast rain this week has missed the track because both horses like quick ground. At the revised weights, the Irish raider Dawn Rising should come out on top of the pair but Beylerbeyi is the younger, improver. Furthermore, the form of his second at Doncaster last month to Caballo De Mar was franked in spades at Longchamp last weekend.
The most likely winner, if he stays the distance, however, is the lightly-raced, four-year-old gelding Sea Lantern. His trainer, Brian Ellison, could hardly have been more bullish about his charge’s chances this week saying bluntly, “I just think he’ll win. He’s a good horse.” Odds of 5-1 are not for me, however, and there are other horses at single-figure odds, including Beylerbeyi and Dawn Rising, that I am happy to overlook as bets solely on the basis that they are poor value.
I have put up one horse already for this race: Gooloogong each way at 33-1 but he ran dismally in the Turners Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last month, without any obvious excuse, and my faith in him has therefore evaporated.
Instead, I will put up the winner of that trial PREMIERE LIGNE who hacked up by six and a half lengths thereby landing a 4 lbs penalty for today’s contest. It’s true that Premiere Ligne ran well in the trial two years ago (second) and he then bombed in the main event (16th of 24 runners) but I put that poor run down to the very soft ground.
Premiere Ligne will not be allowed the same soft lead that he got in the trial three weeks ago. However, with in-form Saffie Osborne in the saddle, I am happy to back Premiere Ligne 1 point each way at 25-1 with bet365, Unibet and Betfred, all paying six places. Others might prefer the 33-1 on offer elsewhere with two less places.
I am also going to put up MOUNTAIN ROAD in the same race even though his car park draw in stall 26 is far from ideal. I tipped him each way in his last race when he ran a cracker at odds of 20-1, only to be defeated by the heavily-backed Irish raider Small Fry at York.
Apprentice jockey Lauren Young did nothing wrong that day but Scottish trainer Jim Goldie has understandably opted to put veteran jockey Paul Mulrennan in the saddle tomorrow. I expect Mulrennan to give Mountain Road a patient ride from his outside berth and come into the race strongly in the final two furlongs. Back the horse 1 point each way at 11-1 with Unibet, paying six places.
In truth, DARK THIRTY has run more bad races than good ones this season but he has also shown some strong form, notably twice at the Curragh, when contesting hot sprint handicaps. On that basis, I will take a chance by tipping this six-year-old gelding at York tomorrow in the Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Handicap (3.17 p.m.).
The John and Sean Quinn trained gelding is a course and distance winner at York and, with his nice draw in stall four, I am happy to back him at a big price. The suggestion is 1 point each way at 22-1 with bet365, paying six places.
Top weight Pellitory could be the main danger after his unlucky-in-running fourth last Saturday behind Mezcala in the BetMGM Challenge Cup at Ascot. He drops a furlong in distance tomorrow but he has winning form over six furlongs, notably when landing the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup last month on heavy ground.
Finally, even though there will be more places on offer in a week’s time, I want to back one of my favourite handicappers on British Champions Day when EBT’s GUARD is due to line up for the Balmoral Handicap in the last race on the card. Bought for just £5,000, this five-year-old gelding has been superbly placed by his handlers, William Muir and Chris Grassick, to win the best part of £300,000 in prize money.
The five-year-old gelding is, however, the victim of his own consistency in that he has not won in 13 starts since victory at Ascot in August 2025 but he has run well in almost all of those races. EBT’s Guard was second in the Balmoral a year ago off the same official rating of 102 that he will run off a week tomorrow. He’s the perfect ante-post bet in that he goes well on all ground conditions.
According to Muir, the horse is being aimed at the Balmoral and he is training as enthusiastically as ever. Back EBT’s Guard 1 point each way at 33-1 with bet365 or Unibet, both paying four places.Next week I will be previewing Champions Day with some superb racing on offer at Ascot.
Pending:
1 point each way Dark Thirty at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Sprint Trophy, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Premiere Ligne at 28-1 for the Godolphin Cesarewitch, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Mountain Road at 11-1 for the Godolphin Cesarewitch, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Gooloogong at 33-1 for the Godolphin Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way EBT’s Guard at 33-1 for the Balmoral Handicap paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: – 3.5 points.
1 point each way Fluorescence at 15-2 for the BetMGM Rous Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 4th. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way River King at 10-1 for the BetMGM Challenge Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Kalpana at 13-2 for the Arc, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2026 flat season running total: + 26.384 points.
2025-26 jumps season: – 57.785 points on all tips.
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for seven full seasons of tipping: + 68.215 points on all tips.
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