Paul Wood

Peace is closer than ever in Lebanon – which is why we’ve seen more bloodshed this week.   As this is published, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is expected to announce his government has accepted a ceasefire with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, on terms negotiated by US officials. That explains the surge in violence over the past week. Israel has been rushing to maximise its gains, destroying as much Hezbollah infrastructure as possible; Hezbollah has been desperately trying to increase its leverage while the final details of the truce are settled.  On Sunday, Hezbollah sent some 250 rockets into Israel. It was one of the largest attacks since the group started firing missiles in support of Hamas in Gaza more than a year ago.

One of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign ads was aimed at Jewish voters. Three stereotypical New York bubbes are kvetching about the state of the world. ‘Israel’s under attack. Anti-Semitism like I never thought I would see.’ One says: ‘Oy vey… You know Trump I never cared for, but at least he will keep us safe.’ This was a canny appeal, recognising that many American Jews were traditionally Democrats and would have to hold their noses to vote for Trump. But Trump has been – as he says himself – Israel’s ‘protector’ and Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was the first foreign leader to praise him for his victory: ‘Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!’ Netanyahu signed off his message to Trump ‘in true friendship’.

Israel’s security cabinet met in a bunker in the ministry of defence in Tel Aviv on Monday night. The main item on the agenda was Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia whose missiles and rockets have forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes in the north. The meeting lasted into the early hours of Tuesday. At 2.26 a.m., the Prime Minister’s office issued a statement saying Israel’s war aims had been ‘updated’ – no longer just destroying Hamas in the south, but also the safe return home of everyone in the north. ‘Israel will continue to act to implement this objective.’ This seemed like a bland restatement of existing policy and didn’t excite much interest. But at 3.30 p.m.

Any journalist who has covered a war will recognise Ryan Routh’s type immediately – the war zone nutter. Routh is currently all over America’s front pages, accused of trying to assassinate Donald Trump. The photograph used by most news outlets shows a grizzled-looking character with a flak vest, a stars-and-stripes neckerchief, and a troubled stare. Back in 2022, he travelled from his home in the US to Ukraine, shortly after Russia invaded. He ended up in Independence Square in Kiev, setting up an open-air camp adorned with flags and handwritten placards – open air camps with placards being another reliable sign of nutterdom. But then warzones have always attracted the mad, the bad and the sad.

The fact that the Middle East stands on the brink of a catastrophic war can be explained by a scene from The Gentlemen, Guy Ritchie’s preposterous but entertaining series on Netflix about aristocrats and sarf London drug-dealers. The dim eldest son of a duke is in trouble with a vicious gangster, who makes him dress up as a chicken and cluck and dance while the whole excruciating spectacle is filmed. Eventually the humiliation is too much for the aristo: he gets the family Purdey and blasts the gangster in the face – even though he knows that there will be terrible consequences.

The first time I heard the name ‘Michael Cohen’ was in 2015, from a Republican political operative who told me: ‘It’s his job to clean up Trump’s messes with women.’ He went on to explain how Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer and fixer, would pay a large amount in cash to whichever actress-model-stripper-pornstar was claiming to have been screwed, dumped or knocked-up by The Donald. And, crucially, Cohen – Trump’s ‘designated thug’ as he called himself – would scare the hell out of the women concerned to make sure they signed an airtight NDA (or non-disclosure agreement).

The US and Britain really didn’t think they had a choice about bombing Yemen in retaliation for Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea – one of the world’s busiest waterways, carrying almost a sixth of global shipping. But the airstrikes overnight are unlikely to stop the attacks and in the short term will probably make things worse.   The decision was taken after one of the most audacious Houthi attacks yet. They sent out a swarm of one-way attack drones and fired cruise missiles into waters where the US military said dozens of ships were crossing at the time. Many of the drones and missiles were shot down by a combined force of four American warships and one British – none found their target.